Dear Oregon, Being a Cop just got harder.

US Navy Traning Session

The Special Session of the Oregon legislature is trying to bring about major changes in the way Law enforcement is organized. The law of “unintended consequences” will increase crime and the number of people seriously injured or killed by law enforcement. With the new investigative power being proposed and the fact that Police Unions will have even more power – Who really thinks this is a good idea? Oh yes, the anarchists. The bills proposed look like an Anarchist dream.

 

HB4201 – Joint Committee to “investigate” police incidents.

For every incident, this pulls major law enforcement players from across the State of Oregon to investigate any incident of death or “qualifying” injury of a suspect.  On the surface, this does sound like a good idea.  The State Attorney General appoints a special investigator that can not be part of the department of the Officer(s) who had the incident against a suspect.  This part really does not sound too bad.  Though the power of the “Special Investigator,” an appointee is equal to that of a District Attorney. an elected position. This bypasses the ability for the public to have sway over who represents us.  People want a “democracy” and yet we elect officials who work to take our vote away.  It would have been better if the “Special Investigator” had to work with the District Attorney. Then at least “We the People” would be represented. But the legislature had to complicate things… A lot!   

This bill also establishes a “deadly physical force planning authority” that has the following members – The local Sheriff and the District Attorney of the jurisdiction where the incident occurred. Not office representatives of these parties, but the actual officeholder.  Also, a Peace Officer who should be (if available) a designated Union representative. One of the Police Chiefs In that county,  A “Public Representative” selected by the DA and The Sheriff, a member of the Oregon State Police, selected by the Superintendent of State Police. A tribal Law enforcement officer if desired by any tribes in the county.

That means every incident will be examined by not only the “Special Investigator”, but also the DA, Sherriff, a peace officer (Probably a Union Representative), a civilian, A state police officer for a total of 5 plus if needed a tribal enforcement officer.  Why the Special Investigator, The District Attorney, and if needed the local Grand Jury is not enough, I am not sure.  We are adding yet another layer that will cause more delays.  If an Officer is found justified, as will probably be the case in most incidents, we have just added several weeks to the resolution, for no real benefit. 

This is another crack for things to fall through, and your legislators are making it happen on purpose. 

SB1604 – Gives Unions more power in disciplinary hearings and arbitration.

This bill essentially means the Peace Officers unions can dictate what punishments are given to Police Officers.  When wrongdoing is seen by both the Police Department and the Union in arbitration.  This may have started as a way to keep officers from some form of double jeopardy, but the end result is that officer discipline is negotiated as part of the Union Deal.  That is what enabled Office Chauvin to abuse George Floyd.  If Officer Chauvin had been eliminated from the force after his previous repeated infractions, Mr. Floyd may be alive (Note; Floyd Autopsies).

To me, it seems the unions are part of the problem.  Officers need the legal protections a union offers.  That is true.  But as public employees, the better solution may be private legal counsel. Maybe there should be legal associations available to the Officers like USCCA  but for police.  Allowing them affordable council.  How much are Police dues, and do they get their money’s worth?  Collective bargaining for public employees has its own problems, raising the cost to “We the People.” Just look at Cal-PERS or any state where unions run everything.

HB4204 and HB4208 – No more Choke holds under any circumstances and no more non-lethal crowd control methods (Tear Gas and Sound Cannons).

I am grouping these two bills because they both have to do with non-lethal force.  The unintended consequences of this will be MORE deaths. Not fewer. 

Let that sink in for a second. Taking away non-lethal tools? That means the officers will need to accelerate to the use of lethal force.  It is a simple equation. 

When dealing with a crowd, the inability to use tear gas and sound will necessitate the use of clubs, rubber bullets and probably shotguns.  Or we let the crowds rampage.  How has that worked for Portland, Seattle, Minneapolis and New York City?

The death of George Floyd was tragic, but it was the abuse of the officer, not a chokehold or tear gas that killed him.  And I’m, sorry Sonic Cannons are a great way to disperse a violent group of people.  By reducing the number of choices you increase the odds for the legitimate need for lethal force.  It is that simple.  The law o unintended consequences.

Conclusion:

The police in the state of Oregon are generally well trained and professional.  The number of incidents in our state, per capita, are lower than most. 

What has happened in places that have tightened the cuffs on officers? New York and other cities “defunding” the police have crime skyrocketing.  Our police are Nobel people trying to do a job professionally.  The Women and men of law enforcement deserve our support, not our scorn. 

We have a chance to vote in November.  To find representatives that will solve the problem instead of reacting, badly to every whim. 

 

In November Vote for Freedom. Supporting the anarchists can only bring terror and fear.  Deimos and Phobos, the Children of Mars, God of War.  There was a meme going around of the State Farm commercial Character “Mayhem” (Played by Dean Winters) as "Person of the Year." Not something to be proud of. The best way to stop Mayhem is not to invite it in. 

I am considering a Run for the Oregon House Seat 29 In Hillsboro Oregon. 

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

Crunching The New Numbers: It is Shocking! Does quarantine cause infection?

My apologies for not keeping up with this.  My computer died and it took a little while to get a new set up tweaked in.  Plus it looked like things were going to open, then they didn’t. 

In statistics recently released in New York City, 66% of new cases came from homes that were following the quarantine.  In Florida and Georgie, 2 states that bucked the trend and opened up a few weeks ago, both saw a 10-12 percent reduction in new cases.  Reports now 3 months after the fact, prove that the Wisconsin Primary Election held in February (Super Tuesday), did not cause any spike in the numbers.

 

But this is about real numbers.  So let’s see what we have learned in the last month.

 

3 studies that I know about, one in Germany, Fresno California, and New York City  New York, sampled a few thousand people who were asymptomatic for the virus.  These were not antibody studies.  These were simply people that were tested for CoVid-19 (CV19) out of hand.  In New York, it was Pregnant Women who came in to give birth.  In Fresno, It was people asking to be tested for sanity or work-related testing of healthy people.  In Germany, they tested 80% of a town. 

The results, though a small sample size (2-8 thousand tests in each case), showed 15% of the subjects were positive, though asymptomatic.  If that holds, Oregon can expect that some 632,700 people are currently or have been infected.  In the United States, 15% of 328.1 Million People are 49.22 Million people. I know this number is wrong because the infection rate n some areas are far lower than 15%. The less densely populated areas will have a lower rate because infections travel slower. 

The Numbers are still encouraging

US Population (est.): 329,000,000 >>(See Notes)
+Estimated exposed to the Virus: 262.475M
(Estimated Percent of National Population exposed 79.8%)
*Confirmed Cases: 1,450,136 (Increase of 218,515 over April 17^th numbers)
Total Deaths:           86,607 (an increase of 50.700 over April 17^th numbers)
**Total Recovered: 253,279
Death Rate: 0.552%, Based on the estimated total exposed. (5.97% unadjusted numbers)

So what about Oregon?

Oregon Population (est.): 4,180,000
+Estimated exposed/recovered to the Virus: 629,699
(Estimated Percent of State Population 15.06%)
*Confirmed Cases: 3,479 (Increase of 1,328 over April 17^th numbers)
Total Deaths:           137 (an increase of 73 over April 17^th numbers)
**Total Recovered: Unreported by Oregon
Death Rate: 0.083%, Based on the estimated total exposed. (3.9% unadjusted numbers, that is 33% below the national average))

What does this mean?

Of all states, Oregon is probably one of the safest.  Even despite the initial push of numbers. Against the national average, we are far better off than other places.  So why are we still forcing businesses to close? The unintended consequences can be just as bad as the disease.

The point of the sequester was to keep from overwhelming the hospitals.  It was never about saving lives.  Sadly these things must run their course.  It is natural.  It is what happens.  Keeping schools closed next year will keep parents home.  They will not be able to afford to go back to work.  Because of global food production decreases, because of the lockdown. The UN World FoodProgram estimates 265 million people will starve directly due to reduced food production because of CV19.  In comparison, less than 0.114% of that number have died from CV19 globally.  As of May 17^th, 2020: 303,825 people have died from CV19.  Again the cure is worse than the disease.

So what’s next?

Well, we can either keep going, destroy the local economy or we can start learning to live with this pandemic just like every other one we have experienced.  Not the people who want to keep us under control have one tool.  That is fear.  It is all about “saving lives” is the big lie.  It was always about giving us time to prepare for the inevitable wave that is coming.  According to local news, we have months of PPE available for hospitals.  Ventilators,  that may do more harm than good,  as well as treatment options.  Hydrocholoquine has proven 90% effective.  There are other immune suppression methods used to great success in California.  I know that sounds weird, but it boils down to the idea that CV19 can cause a cascading immune response, and that is what kills the at-risk and weaker patients.

We NEED a Vaccine!

Some of the folks who tell you to “shelter in place,” say we need to develop a vaccine to develop “herd immunity.” As wonderful as that sounds, there has never been a vaccine developed for any corona type virus.  SARS CoV, the original SARS virus was discovered in 2002.  Since that time millions have been dumped into a vaccine and curative research.  Some treatments have come out of that, but not a vaccine. So should we look for one?  Sure we may get lucky.  But to count on it is insanity. 

On the flip side, if 15% of the population has already been exposed and fought off the disease,  we are that much closer to herd immunity.  Herd Immunity is calculated by computer models.  There are estimates of between 80% to 15% of the population would have had to been exposed to CV19, either fought it off or be inoculated, for us as a species to reach herd immunity.  A little known fact about “herd immunity” is that does not mean the virus disappears and nobody dies.  It means that enough people can fight it off to reduce the death rate. 

Again a vaccine should be researched.  And those that want it should take it.  Those that don’t shouldn’t be forced (yes I am libertarian). But the only way to guarantee an eventual return to normal life is for us to get out, and get exposed.   It is not that I want people to die, I am just pointing out we are not actually saving any lives by doing what we are doing.  In the long run, we will kill more people.  More of them children according to the United Nations.

Go outside, get some sun.  Say hello to people.  You are more likely to die from a fall in your bathroom that in contracting a virus,l you may already have fought off.  Freedom is not without risk, but lockdown is just prison with Netflix or Disney+ and a comfortable couch.

Notes:

* - Tested or diagnosed through clinical means.
** - Tested free of CV19 twice over 2 weeks, after diagnosed as positive.
+ - Based on 15% of the population having asymptomatic response. See German, California, and New York Studies.   The math works out that each person exposes about 181 other people.  The previous calculation used 110 other people being exposed. 
>> Dropped down to be consistent with the US news media, though this estimate is 2 years old and does not include unregistered persons.  The 2020 census should clear this up.

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

It’s Crunch time! – The numbers and what they really mean. 04/03/2020

Last Friday I sent up charts and data to the internet to try to show how small your personal risk really is.  Not to bash anybody, but to praise our amazing cooperative work.  Here is an update that personally I find encouraging.

Again we hear the terrible numbers of the toll of this virus, but because we look at the microcosm of the numbers, we do not understand the actual risk to us individually.  Though I am not saying we should yell and scream and run around hugging each other.  Getting outside and doing our lives as close to normal as is prudent, might not be a bad way to go. 

In 2009 we had the H1N1pdn09 pandemic.  We did not shut down the world and we only quarantined the infected. SARS-CoV 2 (CoVid-19 0r C19) is far more contagious.  So it appears, but it is also far less lethal.

The Numbers (04/03/2020)

US Population (est): 348,860,000
Estimated exposed to the Virus: 2.695M – 26.955M
(Percent of National Population 0.077%-0.775%)

Confirmed Cases: 269,557
Total Deaths:       6,907
Total Recovered: 12,015

Estimated odds of you contacting an exposed person between .077% - 0.776%
That means if you were at a used car lot with 1000 cars, and the worst case is it would be 8 of those 1000 cars are lemons.  So 992 of those 1000 cars are good. Or if you had $10 in pennies, eight of those “pennies” were actually pesos.

In more simple terms, out of 125 people you come in contact with, 1 of them will have been exposed to CV19.  This is not to be ignored.  But the reality is that you are relatively safe.

Should you use some sort of mask to reduce the risk?  Sure. Yet do not ignore the cost of being idle. Addicts will fall of their respective wagon.  People are not being taken to hospitals in NYC. If Paramedics find a person on the floor without a heartbeat, due to heart attack, they are not even to bother transporting victims to the hospital, unless they can restart the heart.  In the past, they would be transported to the hospital while being sustained by CPR.  Many of these people can recover.  Now they are not being given the chance. So where do you draw the “save one life” logic?

What does 1 in 125 looks like?

1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111X111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111

Being over cautious can be just as damaging as a slow reaction.

Be safe, be cautious but continue to live a life.  Shutting your life down can have long-term effects on you and your circle.

Notes:

* tested or diagnosed through clinical means.
** Tested free of CV19 twice over a 2 week period, after diagnosed as positive.
+ Estimate of infected based on the idea that only 10% of the total infected have been confirmed.
All sourced from the CDC.  

How to Avoid the Downfall - "Inside Out" A Movie by Disney

With all the changes we are going through, things are changing.  Some are temporary and some will be permanent.  We are changing our culture on a fundamental level. Alcohol sales have risen 45%, which is consumable alcohol.  Will all of that be used to sterilize things?  Probably not.

Fair warning: We sill see at least 100k people dying from CoVid-19 in the United States alone. Next year could be as bad if not worse.  We are in for rough times. We have only experienced 4% of that number in losses as of this writing (04/02/2020). So things will get worse.  But how we react to that is the question.  Remember 100K is less than 0.03% of the US population.  A lot of people, but the math is in your favor.

Would some of these changes have happened anyway?

Probably. Some things like Tele-Education, Tele-Commuting and other Virtual Meeting tools will become the norm.  Back in the 1940s and 50s, the technology of “Dick Tracey” was considered irrational.  But since the “Smart Phone” revolution, we’ve had that technology in our hands.

But change is hard!

If it is an escape from reality like Porn or Gambling, or if it is to alter your perception like Drugs or Alcohol, or if even it is a matter of eating things that make you “feel better,” is of no matter. The end result is always the same, self-destructive behavior.

Alcoholics Anonymous - Non-Affiliate

I do work with a 12 step program.  I do have sponsees that I work with. And one of the assignments they get from me is to watch or read certain materials. My primary source is, of course, the big book of “Alcoholic’s Anonymous.” One of the things I stress is journaling why you partake in .  An honest person will find that sometime in the past they concluded that this addiction benefited them. It is an irrational thought, but it is why you keep it up. 

There is one artistic work I recommend that is a “Non-Approved” material.  The kid's movie “Inside Out”: A Disney film that explores emotions and how we respond to it.  And that is the secret of addiction, how we respond to our emotions.  That is where the danger of being “restless, irritable and discontented”(RID)- Alcoholics Anonymous, from “The Doctors Opinion”) comes from.

What I find interesting about this simple movie is that it gently deals with the root of many societal ills.  

Whether it be the cancel culture, the rift between socialist and conservative or the issues inside one's self, the lack o ability to reconcile our cognitive dissidence between emotion, rational thought, and physical results.

Inside Out Disney Studios

A strong recommendation is to enjoy the movie “Inside Out” (Now Available Free on YouTube) Pay attention at the end when they go into different peoples heads, and pay attention to what emotions have the rule over the different people.

During these new times, am I reacting with the emotion of intellect?

Emotions are not bad, but being ruled by them is a disaster in progress.  The Stoics of ancient Greek fame had a good idea.  Acknowledge your emotions, but allow intellect to control your decisions. The Bible spends 66 books and spans 5000 years of history demonstrating this.  A religion that speaks to emotional rule, is one destined to end in self-destruction.  People who have used the Quaran’ or the Bible to drive an emotional result have done so to their destruction.

So if you have some time on your hand, watch “Inside Out” and try to picture the committee that rules your head.  You can’t eliminate the committee, but you can bring it to order.  And that is were sobriety lives.  With a committee under guidance.

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.