Is 44 countries enough?

In 27 of 44 Countries, Mandatory Face Masks reduce Deaths?

Recently in the American Journal of Preventative Medicine published a study declaring that the mandatory use of masks in the SARS-CoV-2 and MERS environment prevented deaths.  It was a “ModelingCovid-19 Mortality across 44 Countries” indicating face coverings “may reduce” mortality.  The study was simple enough but it brought to my mind some questions. I have always thought the most important part of any discussion was asking the right questions.  The basic results of the study indicated there were 288 deaths per million people in countries that did not mandate masks and only 48 per million in countries that did.  A significant difference. Two things to point out about this is that the death rate in both instances was very low.  Even the 288 as almost the same as a Flu epidemic of two one-hundredths of 1% death rate in the population.  That is still higher than four one-thousandth of 1% for the masked.

NOTE: The data for this study was from February to May 2020 so Vaccines were not a factor.

Why deaths?

In the material the claim was it reduced virial load.  Maybe I suppose, but then just simple isolation would also be a determining factor and that does not seem to be true. People place in isolation still get worse. They paid no attention to the infection rate, which in some of these places we know to be quiet high.

We know from experience that despite masking: age, population density and general population health are contributing factors.

Was age a factor?

According to the model, the average age for the 17 “non-masking” countries was slightly higher at 42 years old versus 41 years old on average for the 27 countries forcing the masking.  This really does not sound like a lot.  Until you understand that the over 60 population was moderately higher in those non-masking, immigration was major factor and as well as population density which was higher in the 17 non-masking countries. This would indicate a more stressed medical community and possibly lead to a higher death rate on its own merits.

Did the 27 lower death rate masked countries have a different treatment protocol?

It is not indicated in the research if any protocols were used in the lower death rate countries different than the non-mask countries either.  If the treatment methods were the same, then the study is valid.  If most if not all of the masked countries also used varied treatments or any significant treatment at all, then the study is really flawed.  Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine were already being used in some places by then.

Assuming that just masking was the primary factor is a false promise.  There is also no real indication that they looked at the population’s compliance.  It is one thing to force a mandate, it is another to comply.  Japan is known to have one of the highest mask compliant populations at 91%, Ireland is about 88%.  So the level of compliance could affect the results.

Why 44 countries?

I am always skeptical of limited quantity studies.  Back in the 1960s the “Mediterranean Diet” was based on something called the 7 Countries studies. Seven countries had diets that were low in Saturated fat and high in carbohydrates that had a low rate of heart disease.  It made Olive oil a cure-all and was touted as the secret to a long life.  Soon after America became a far more obese nation.  What is never mentioned is that they had data for some 30+ countries.  They chose 7 because the charts made the wanted result. Low fat, moderate carb, less heart disease.   In truth, if you mapped all the data there was no conclusion in the amount of saturated fat.  Countries like Switzerland and France wherein there, both had high fat, medium to low carb diets, yet their level of cardiovascular disease was also minimal. 

So here we are with a minimal sample size really.  It was too complicated to use county data in the US or province data in Canada because, well I don’t know.  So we have 44 countries picked out of probably 70 we have data for?

When you limit your data, it always looks like you want a specific result.  That is the joy of statistics.  You can always get the results you want, it is just how you look at the data points. So I  encourage you to be skeptical.  There is an awful lot we are not being told. 

What percentage of deaths in the US are vaccinated?  In Oregon, 99% of people over 65 are vaccinated. And they account for 90+ percent of the deaths in the state.  So how many of them are vaccinated?  Nobody will say. Some states have indicated 50% of those dying are vaccinated.  60% o the new infections are vaccinated.  To me, the vaccine, that I did get, does not seem to be effective.

Why are miscarriages up over 60% in Invitro Fertilization Clinics Nationwide among vaccinated women over 2019?

Why are cardiovascular issues up 100% in men below 40 and in good health nationwide in 2021?

Why are school districts in Oregon asking children to eat lunch in 35 degrees in December when the risk of death in children below 16 is so low, vaccinated or not?

Asking questions is how we learn.  Asking the right question is how we advance.  Currently I wear a mask for the fear of others.  Not because I am afraid of them, but because they are afraid of me.  It is a sad situation.

Next time you see a person with a mask remember it is YOUR FEAR that drives that.  

Here’s a question: How long do you want to live in fear? 

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

CoVid Culture - Is suicide Painless?

I finally found some stats on suicide in Oregon. There was an article in the Oregonian – Oregonians have died at a rate well above the aversive since mid-March (Updated April 29^th as of this writing).  It shows that between MARCH 15^TH to April 19^th 245 Oregonians died from suicide.  On average we usually would have almost 90 in that same period.  That means that 155 more died than what is considered average.  As of this writing (05/26/2020) there have been 148 deaths in total due to SARS CoV 2 (CV19).

Note that there have been no new deaths since Friday May 22^nd and only 22 new cases recorded. 

According to World population Review – Suicide by States Oregon has lost 825 people so far in 2020.  On average Oregon saw 70 suicides a month in 2019.  That would be 350 by the end of May.  Yet we have more than doubled that (about a 230% increase).

The Oregonian article indicated that “It is unclear if other fallout from the pandemic, including fear of seeking health care,” was the cause of this. And that is true, interviewing dead people pose technical difficulties that we have not surmounted. On the other hand the reason folks are afraid to seek medical care is because of the CV19.

But given common factors of suicide we can determine; the economic downturn, social isolation, and other depressive contributing factors that have all been forced on us, it seems unlikely that the restrictions were not at least a contributing factor.  It is known that people who attend Spiritual worship or social events tend to be less likely to commit suicide.

Without question these people were troubled to start with.  That argument indicates that they are less valuable than others.  I for one can’t promote that premise.

Again the question is when is the prevention worse than the disease? It seems to me if we are losing twice as many or more to suicide than CV19 that maybe we passed that point in April.  It is now the end of May. 

Re-opening “everything” does come with its risks.  The original idea was to “reduce the wave” so that our hospitals could keep up.  Hospitals are now closing because they don’t have enough patients to stay open. 

Suicide Prevention Lifeline

There is some hope for a vaccine, though no timeline on that can be promised.  Given what we learned from SARS CoV (The 2002 Corona Strain), that gave us a leg up on the SARS CoV 2 (CV19). But there is still no guarantee.  A Little vaccine history lesson here.

Developing a “herd immunity” at this point may only be achieved through exposure. So when do we start that treatment?

The other costs that can’t be calculated are the labor drought that seems to be starting to show up. With all the stimulus, in some cases, it makes more economic sense for people to stay at home.  These people are the one ones that work mostly for small business.  Small Business employes 80% of the workforce. If they have to raise salaries to attract people, that increases inflation.  Add that to the value of the US Dollar that will eventually drop because we just “Made up” money for the stimulus.

We currently live with SARS, MERS, H3N2 (Hong Kong Flu from the 1968 Pandemic) as well as many others.  We will see many deaths from CV19.  Remember the initial count was in the multimillions in the US alone.  That now seems unlikely.  As states open it will be important to see if the spike that will happen starts to tax our now reduced hospital capacity. But we are on a war footing now.  Those hospitals can be re-opened.  Most states have started to store up capacity for consumable medical supplies that were depleted by earlier administrations on every level.

A question to answer is when is it better to open up?  Now when the weather is getting brighter, and the conditions for spread are as low as they can get? Or wait until fall, when we are all living indoors more and have less exposure to the big bright natural disinfector in the sky (The Sun)?

Governor Kate Brown, How many suicides do you want to be responsible for? 

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

Crunching the Numbers – The Safety Third Idea

We hear about the “New Normal”, I have even talked about this in previous posts.  But I mean something different.  I don’t mean the drastic changes society “must” make to survive this.  I mean the risk management to get back to what normal always returns to. We talk about this technological age, and “how different” things are now than 2000 years ago.  But is it really?  Sure we can circle the globe in hours literally, in less than an hour in orbit, everything has the same purpose, we are just better at it.

The wheel brought the engine that brought the airplane.  In the end it boils down to getting places to gather food, provide shelter, and reproduce.  We earn money to gather food and purchase shelter.  But the essentials are the same. They have gathered food, made families, and sought to improve their current station.  Every change to society, including the 1791 “Great Experiment,” was to define or support “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.” 

There are very scary numbers regarding our current pandemic. If you look at just the total numbers, it is frightening. But you don’t live your life based on that kind of information. If you only looked at “total numbers,” we would not have 5-gallon buckets (Kills more children 5 and under than anything else), Drive or ride in a car (38,800 killed in 2019), or stay at home.  In the United States (2018 numbers) 49 people out of every 100k die from “unintentional accidents” (this includes car accidents). In Oregon 2.9 out 100k have died so far from CV19.  I wish I could guarantee your safety at home, but to be honest, you are at risk staying at home. 

The Numbers are scary!

Is it really?  There are a few things about the numbers we must acknowledge.  

1. Many to the “Confirmed cases” are diagnosed by fever, inability to smell, or respiratory distress.  The number of diseases that present with these symptoms is amazing. Including one corona type virus, we have been fighting forever, the common cold.

2. Of the People told to take a test because they are symptomatic, only 35% test positive.  

3. We know people who tested positive, died of other diseases (Cancer, heart failure, etc) has been counted as CV19 deaths.   (April 7th Dr. Brix at the CV19 Task Force Press Conference).  There is no doubt that people who died from other issues are being counted as CV19 Death.

We can’t know the true numbers until we have reliable tests for antibodies as well as the diseases itself, as well as every person is tested live or has an autopsy.  That is not happening. It is not possible.

Our current numbers US/Oregon:

US Population (est.): 329,000,000 >>(See Notes)
*Confirmed Cases: 1,611,297 (Increase of 161,161 over May 15th numbers)
Total Deaths: 95,213 (an increase of 8,606 over May 15th numbers)
**Total Recovered: 308,625
Death Rate: 5.91% (unadjusted numbers)

About Oregon?

Oregon Population (est.): 4,180,000
*Confirmed Cases: 3,817 (Increase of 338 over May 15th numbers)
Total Deaths: 145 (an increase of 8 over May 15th h numbers)
**Total Recovered: Unreported by Oregon
Death Rate: 3.70% unadjusted numbers, that is 35.71% below the national average))

In the last week, Oregon cases have slowed to a crawl. More people are getting tested, and the rate of increase is slowing every week. I keep hearing Mayor Cuomo if New York City touting the “Even if it saves just one life” line. Yet that is a marketing fallacy.  This was never about saving individual lives, because this kind of restriction can’t save lives it can only reduce the risk.  Then the question is when is the prevention worse than the disease. 

Safety third:

Mike Rowe has often talked about “safety third” and has espoused on this theme in several interviews and blog posts (Mike Rowe – “Walk me through this “Safety Third Thing”).  

We now know, because China did not acknowledge the early stages of the epidemic there, it turned in to a pandemic.  Because China restricted travel inside the country but not only allowed but encouraged foreigners to leave, without testing or notifying the destination countries of the risk, we have a pandemic.   There is evidence that New York, California, and Washington state have been fighting this since 2019.  All of our “authoritative models” have been wrong. Not by just a little.  

It is time for Oregon to open.  Washington County, where I live) is considered one of the Oregon “Hot Spots” but it has only one 5th of the cases in Oregon.  Washington County has about one 5th of the population of the state. So it is not “overly infected” really. It just has one of the most densely populated counties. Imagine that!

We should be realistic about what we are doing.  If you are high risk, maybe sequester is the right choice.  As for me – I will not offer my hand out of respect for your distance.  But I should have a shirt or hat made that says “Will Hug or handshake on request.”

It’s time. 

Notes:

* - Tested or diagnosed through clinical means.
** - Tested free of CV19 twice over 2 weeks, after diagnosed as positive. 
>> Dropped down to be consistent with the US news media, though this estimate is 2 years old and does not include unregistered persons.  The 2020 census should clear this up.

Crunching The New Numbers: It is Shocking! Does quarantine cause infection?

My apologies for not keeping up with this.  My computer died and it took a little while to get a new set up tweaked in.  Plus it looked like things were going to open, then they didn’t. 

In statistics recently released in New York City, 66% of new cases came from homes that were following the quarantine.  In Florida and Georgie, 2 states that bucked the trend and opened up a few weeks ago, both saw a 10-12 percent reduction in new cases.  Reports now 3 months after the fact, prove that the Wisconsin Primary Election held in February (Super Tuesday), did not cause any spike in the numbers.

 

But this is about real numbers.  So let’s see what we have learned in the last month.

 

3 studies that I know about, one in Germany, Fresno California, and New York City  New York, sampled a few thousand people who were asymptomatic for the virus.  These were not antibody studies.  These were simply people that were tested for CoVid-19 (CV19) out of hand.  In New York, it was Pregnant Women who came in to give birth.  In Fresno, It was people asking to be tested for sanity or work-related testing of healthy people.  In Germany, they tested 80% of a town. 

The results, though a small sample size (2-8 thousand tests in each case), showed 15% of the subjects were positive, though asymptomatic.  If that holds, Oregon can expect that some 632,700 people are currently or have been infected.  In the United States, 15% of 328.1 Million People are 49.22 Million people. I know this number is wrong because the infection rate n some areas are far lower than 15%. The less densely populated areas will have a lower rate because infections travel slower. 

The Numbers are still encouraging

US Population (est.): 329,000,000 >>(See Notes)
+Estimated exposed to the Virus: 262.475M
(Estimated Percent of National Population exposed 79.8%)
*Confirmed Cases: 1,450,136 (Increase of 218,515 over April 17^th numbers)
Total Deaths:           86,607 (an increase of 50.700 over April 17^th numbers)
**Total Recovered: 253,279
Death Rate: 0.552%, Based on the estimated total exposed. (5.97% unadjusted numbers)

So what about Oregon?

Oregon Population (est.): 4,180,000
+Estimated exposed/recovered to the Virus: 629,699
(Estimated Percent of State Population 15.06%)
*Confirmed Cases: 3,479 (Increase of 1,328 over April 17^th numbers)
Total Deaths:           137 (an increase of 73 over April 17^th numbers)
**Total Recovered: Unreported by Oregon
Death Rate: 0.083%, Based on the estimated total exposed. (3.9% unadjusted numbers, that is 33% below the national average))

What does this mean?

Of all states, Oregon is probably one of the safest.  Even despite the initial push of numbers. Against the national average, we are far better off than other places.  So why are we still forcing businesses to close? The unintended consequences can be just as bad as the disease.

The point of the sequester was to keep from overwhelming the hospitals.  It was never about saving lives.  Sadly these things must run their course.  It is natural.  It is what happens.  Keeping schools closed next year will keep parents home.  They will not be able to afford to go back to work.  Because of global food production decreases, because of the lockdown. The UN World FoodProgram estimates 265 million people will starve directly due to reduced food production because of CV19.  In comparison, less than 0.114% of that number have died from CV19 globally.  As of May 17^th, 2020: 303,825 people have died from CV19.  Again the cure is worse than the disease.

So what’s next?

Well, we can either keep going, destroy the local economy or we can start learning to live with this pandemic just like every other one we have experienced.  Not the people who want to keep us under control have one tool.  That is fear.  It is all about “saving lives” is the big lie.  It was always about giving us time to prepare for the inevitable wave that is coming.  According to local news, we have months of PPE available for hospitals.  Ventilators,  that may do more harm than good,  as well as treatment options.  Hydrocholoquine has proven 90% effective.  There are other immune suppression methods used to great success in California.  I know that sounds weird, but it boils down to the idea that CV19 can cause a cascading immune response, and that is what kills the at-risk and weaker patients.

We NEED a Vaccine!

Some of the folks who tell you to “shelter in place,” say we need to develop a vaccine to develop “herd immunity.” As wonderful as that sounds, there has never been a vaccine developed for any corona type virus.  SARS CoV, the original SARS virus was discovered in 2002.  Since that time millions have been dumped into a vaccine and curative research.  Some treatments have come out of that, but not a vaccine. So should we look for one?  Sure we may get lucky.  But to count on it is insanity. 

On the flip side, if 15% of the population has already been exposed and fought off the disease,  we are that much closer to herd immunity.  Herd Immunity is calculated by computer models.  There are estimates of between 80% to 15% of the population would have had to been exposed to CV19, either fought it off or be inoculated, for us as a species to reach herd immunity.  A little known fact about “herd immunity” is that does not mean the virus disappears and nobody dies.  It means that enough people can fight it off to reduce the death rate. 

Again a vaccine should be researched.  And those that want it should take it.  Those that don’t shouldn’t be forced (yes I am libertarian). But the only way to guarantee an eventual return to normal life is for us to get out, and get exposed.   It is not that I want people to die, I am just pointing out we are not actually saving any lives by doing what we are doing.  In the long run, we will kill more people.  More of them children according to the United Nations.

Go outside, get some sun.  Say hello to people.  You are more likely to die from a fall in your bathroom that in contracting a virus,l you may already have fought off.  Freedom is not without risk, but lockdown is just prison with Netflix or Disney+ and a comfortable couch.

Notes:

* - Tested or diagnosed through clinical means.
** - Tested free of CV19 twice over 2 weeks, after diagnosed as positive.
+ - Based on 15% of the population having asymptomatic response. See German, California, and New York Studies.   The math works out that each person exposes about 181 other people.  The previous calculation used 110 other people being exposed. 
>> Dropped down to be consistent with the US news media, though this estimate is 2 years old and does not include unregistered persons.  The 2020 census should clear this up.

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

Breaking news – The NIH funded the Wuhan Viral institute’s research in to CV19

Dateline YouTube 9:30 PM Pacific time.

Before Bed tonight I watched “Verdict with Ted Cruze” on You Tube.  Ted apparently reads my blog.  But the most interesting thing is that the US National Institute of Health (AKA NIH) spent &73,301 in research to the Wuhan Virology Research Institute on Corona Viruses from Bats, and the impact on human biology. Why we would send this money all over the world (about $3.7M+ dollars world-wide) in research is beyond me.  Apparently, part of the research was on human fetal samples. So Human experimentation.

 Source:

So here we are with a global pandemic at least partially funded by the United States.  Guess what gang, let us do the research here, at least them we can be responsible for the results.  Good or bad.

This was corroborated by the UK Daily Mail in an article on April 11th, 2020.

Not that funding medical research is a bad thing.  But given the history of China and other research facilities, maybe this was a bad idea.  According to toe Congressman Matt Gaetz, this is not new activity.

Do we ever know where your money goes? 

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

Crunch time – More encouraging news from the numbers-04/17/2020

The Changes:

This is week 4 of this string of articles. A lot has changed in the last week. Germany took a whole town, and tested 80% of the population, regardless of symptoms. Trying to estimate what percentage of the population was infected. They cam up with about 15%. Test results in NYC - Women who were pregnant and came in to deliver children, were tested (220 of them) and 15% of them. Tested positive for CV19. Most seemed to be asymptomatic.

What does this mean?

 It shows that the mathematical model I’ve been using is close to correct. Sadly it is the worst-case estimate that was a little low. Instead of a ratio of 1 to 100 of known infected vs actual infected, it is 1 to 110. This means for every confirmed/Diagnosed case, there are 110 more people out there who are asymptomatic or who had such mild cases no diagnoses nor testing occurred. In my historical calculations, I changed that exposure estimate.

That means as of today we are running about 23% of the population seems having been exposed. The reasons for this are more have been tested. We have tested almost 2% of the population. There is a new test available in the next 2 weeks that takes minutes vs days. It is a less invasive nasal swab. So it is more comfortable and can be performed in Drive through or the Doctor Office. This too is good news. People tested are still 65% negative. So even though symptomatic they have common influenza or rhinovirus vs CoVid-19.

The numbers are so encouraging.

•  US Population (est.): 329,000,000 >>(See Notes)
• +Estimated exposed to the Virus: 75.68M
• (Estimated Percent of National Population 23.0%)
• *Confirmed Cases: 688,019 (Increase of 218,515)
• Total Deaths: 35,907 (increase of 17,916) 
• **Total Recovered: 56,177 (Corrected, some how an extra zero was posted earlier.)

This is all leveling off and the number of new deaths is decreasing. Even with New York City adding 3,700 deaths because they had died in their homes and had not been counted. These 3,700 people were never tested but were assumed to have CV19, they had coughs and fever. Is it worth going back and testing mem? Maybe, 3700 was 17% of the US deaths at the time. So that is a large increase.

What is so good about this? 

The infection rate is slowing. More people have been tested but the rate of increase has dropped. The death rate has dropped a ton with the revised estimate of the infected to 0.043% of infected at risk of dying. Most places have access to PPE and many US factories have re-tooled to supply that stuff, instead of relying on imports. Again showing the flexibility of an almost free market.

There are treatments that are working!

Hydroxychloroquine (HyC for short) is being tested in South Dakota in studies to determine if it is a cure. There is a tone of anecdotal evidence that combining it with other things, does seem to have a very high success rate. This is a prime example of why you do not want to think like a News Media Schill.

Often it is said that HyC is not listed as a cure. Of course not, CV19 is a novel virus, one that has not been studied, except in a few places. And no cure had been found there. The idea of a “novel” virus is not that it is well-read, but that it is unique. Though most folks agree it is similar to SARS (SARS-CoV) hence it is officially SARS-CoV 2 in the lab rat world.

So what is your risk where 23% of the people have been exposed? (based on moderately conservative estimates)

Note the death rate went from 0.37% to 0.047%, even with NYC adjustment. At 0.37% you had a 1 in 292 chance of dying. Now your chance is down to 1 in 2,128.

Does that mean if you leave your house 2,128 times you will get the virus and die? No. Remember there is a “New Deck”, to use a gambler phrase, every time you leave the house. The cards are shuffled when you leave the door.

So when is it safe enough?

Now for most people. The financial costs aside, there is a manufacturing shortage coming unless we get back outside and do our stuff. This is true for a small and large business. There are food plants shutting down and farmers destroying crops they can’t sell because we can’t process that food. Right now, we have time to catch up. But in 4 weeks, we will start seeing shortages. Those shortages can cause death too. Again, there is the question of “Does it matter how you die?” If you are a socialist, it does. Because if you die from a bullet, you are venerated as a “gun death” if you die from a knife or beating, well then you are just a crime statistic. If you die from a lack of medicine or starve, that is OK because you did not die “from CV19!”

So is it good news?

Yes! Your odds of survival just jumped up by some 600%. That huge change is due to the larger testing data.

Define safe? That is an individual decision. But the point of a free society is you do get to choose. At what point do we stop living in fear and go out and have a life? As of now your odds of dying from CoVid-19 are lower than the top 12 most common causes of death in the United States. That is down from 3rd most common last week.

Every time you open your eyes you put yourself at risk. According to the National Safety Council, if you go outside, 1 of 114 times you will die from a “Motor Vehicle Crash.” Whenever you eat you will choke on your food 1 out of 3,461 meals. Yet you still eat every day. If you choose to go outside, it is probably still a good idea to practice your personal space thing. Wearing a mask may make others feel better and reduce your chances from 1 in 2, 128 to about 1 in 3, 093.

Can restaurants help be reducing tables in their dining room? Would you go to a restaurant and eat if they advertised a 6-foot clearance between usable booths and tables? Thes kind of thing is how we define our new normal. But a restaurant will have trouble making profits if the table count is cut by 50-70 percent.

Governor Brown let’s get back to life.

Notes:

* - Tested or diagnosed through clinical means.
** - Tested free of CV19 twice over 2 weeks, after diagnosed as positive.
+ - Estimate of infected based on the idea that only 10% of the total infected have been confirmed.
 >> - Dropped down to be consistent with the US news media, though this estimate is 2 years old and does not include unregistered persons. The 2020 census should clear this up.

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

By Order of the Queen Governor of Oregon – Your Dining Hall is now confiscated.

The Issue:

Can the government (State or Federal) close services by private companies for an indeterminate amount of time? Not in Oregon! When does public safety trump personal freedom? It should not. Yet here we are. Forced isolation – When does Sequester/Quarantine become worse than the disease?  Let’s take a look!

Is what you die from this important?

Economy and mental health seem to be snakes swallowing each other. When people are happy the economy is strong, when the economy goes down, mental health suffers.  Last year in Oregon there were 844 suicides.  That is an average of 70 a month.  Every month.  As of April 13th, 2020 Oregon has lost 52 people. 4 In the last 24 hours.

Now that is terrible.  But what are the odds of suicide has increased over the last month of quarantine?  I have asked the Oregon Department of health for the 2020 statistics by month.  But they have not had time to supply those yet.  Oddly I have found no reliable monthly tally of that information. I will end up doing a blog on mental health in the future when I have facts to provide.

Governor Brown has signed 15 Executive Orders (EO) as of the date of this writing (04/13/2020).  Most of them for set amounts of time.  EO20-06 Specified that the restaurant dining room and facilities be closed for 30 days. On April 7th, Governor Brown extended that order, in its entirety for an indefinite period.

It seems to me this is a bad idea for many reasons.  Do we need to continue to distance ourselves and wash hands?  Sure.  If somebody has health issues should they remain sequestered? That would be reasonable.  But if we don’t start looking at how to safely navigate a world full of pandemics waiting to happen, the better.

The Promises:

The hope of a vaccine or cure is good but a vacant promise.  When HIV was first discovered in the population, it was promised but never found.  HIV First made an appearance in 1968.  During the 1970’s it was considered a pandemic (it still is) and billions have been poured into its cure.  We do have reliable tests, but no vaccine nor anything resembling a cure.  Sure we can prolong the life span of the infected.  But it can’t be cured.  So even science can’t deliver on these kinds of promises.

Welcome to the new reality. 

So what next?

Oregon has this covered.  There is no law to change, it just needs to be applied.  If the State confiscates property, they must compensate the citizen or company.  It seems that Governor Kate Brown has stolen your facilities if you are a dine/Drink- in a facility. If I were you, I’d send the state an invoice for renting out your service areas for March 17th to April 21st.

Oregon Statute(ORS) 433.441(5-6):
(5) A proclamation of a state of public health emergency expires when terminated by a declaration of the Governor or no more than 14 days after the date the public health emergency is proclaimed unless the Governor expressly extends the proclamation for an additional 14-day period.

(6) When real or personal property is taken under power granted by this section, the owner of the property shall be entitled to reasonable compensation from the state. [2003 c.555 §1; 2007 c.445 §23; 2013 c.332 §3]

It seems to me, that specifically for a health emergency, the Governor can not set these emergency powers for more than 14 days. It also seems to me, by declaring dining rooms off-limits, and making no state effort to decontaminate or re-open them, she is “Taking possession of” the dining areas.

If I were a lawyer, and I am not, I would see if there is a class action suit just waiting to happen.

I am not interested in breaking the quarantine, not because I am afraid of the state, but if I spread this to somebody else, I would be very unhappy.  It is the uncertainty that causes stress because I don’t know if I have it.  So maybe staying quarantined until we do have at least an antibody test if you are at risk, is a good idea.  There are no guarantees, people in their 20s have died from this.  And some did not seem to have any co-morbidities. But the odds at this point are 0.338 to 100. Or if you want a sensational number 296 to 1 of contracting SARS-CoVid 2(CoVid-19, CV19).

You have to decide if it worth the risk.  But in a free country or state, it should be your choice.

Notes:

* Not signed by the Secretary of State – Bev Clamo.
A full list of Executive orders 2003 to Present. Downloadable PDF of the signed orders.

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

It’s Crunch time! – The numbers and what they really mean. 04/03/2020

Last Friday I sent up charts and data to the internet to try to show how small your personal risk really is.  Not to bash anybody, but to praise our amazing cooperative work.  Here is an update that personally I find encouraging.

Again we hear the terrible numbers of the toll of this virus, but because we look at the microcosm of the numbers, we do not understand the actual risk to us individually.  Though I am not saying we should yell and scream and run around hugging each other.  Getting outside and doing our lives as close to normal as is prudent, might not be a bad way to go. 

In 2009 we had the H1N1pdn09 pandemic.  We did not shut down the world and we only quarantined the infected. SARS-CoV 2 (CoVid-19 0r C19) is far more contagious.  So it appears, but it is also far less lethal.

The Numbers (04/03/2020)

US Population (est): 348,860,000
Estimated exposed to the Virus: 2.695M – 26.955M
(Percent of National Population 0.077%-0.775%)

Confirmed Cases: 269,557
Total Deaths:       6,907
Total Recovered: 12,015

Estimated odds of you contacting an exposed person between .077% - 0.776%
That means if you were at a used car lot with 1000 cars, and the worst case is it would be 8 of those 1000 cars are lemons.  So 992 of those 1000 cars are good. Or if you had $10 in pennies, eight of those “pennies” were actually pesos.

In more simple terms, out of 125 people you come in contact with, 1 of them will have been exposed to CV19.  This is not to be ignored.  But the reality is that you are relatively safe.

Should you use some sort of mask to reduce the risk?  Sure. Yet do not ignore the cost of being idle. Addicts will fall of their respective wagon.  People are not being taken to hospitals in NYC. If Paramedics find a person on the floor without a heartbeat, due to heart attack, they are not even to bother transporting victims to the hospital, unless they can restart the heart.  In the past, they would be transported to the hospital while being sustained by CPR.  Many of these people can recover.  Now they are not being given the chance. So where do you draw the “save one life” logic?

What does 1 in 125 looks like?

1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111X111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111

Being over cautious can be just as damaging as a slow reaction.

Be safe, be cautious but continue to live a life.  Shutting your life down can have long-term effects on you and your circle.

Notes:

* tested or diagnosed through clinical means.
** Tested free of CV19 twice over a 2 week period, after diagnosed as positive.
+ Estimate of infected based on the idea that only 10% of the total infected have been confirmed.
All sourced from the CDC.  

Crunch Time - SARS-CoV 2 (CoVid-19) infection report for March 26th, 2020

I like to crunch numbers, yes I probably am a little disturbed.  Doing math comforts me and helps me understand.  When we hear global numbers approaching the million mark, it is easy to become frightened.  But if we look at things from the ants perspective there is a little more comfort in the numbers.

• According to the US CDC as of 4 PM yesterday -Total US cases: 85,356
• Total US deaths: 1,246
• Jurisdictions reporting cases: 54 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands.

(Source: US Center for Disease Control Website.

The Math:

US Citizens – 327, 800,00 (328Million Million - Approximated in 2018)
Percent of the Population carrying (est): between 853,000 and 8,356,000
(Calculation between 10 to 100 times the number of known infected.  This is to account for the number of people that may be carrying and not know it, or those that are not being reported, due to lack of testing)

Estimated Exposed:

This is based on simple math.  The number of known cases, multiplied by 10 or 100.  That is to account for the large number of people who may be asymptomatic, or only slightly ill and have not been reported.  These numbers are estimated at best.  But they seem to be generally accepted in epidemiological worlds.

What's it mean?

Somewhere between .026 and 2.6 percent of the US population has been exposed.  So in a crowd of 100 people, as many as 3 could have been exposed and may be contagious.  Just remember that recently both Madi Gras and Spring Break drew crowds. There has already been an uptake in cases.  As long as we practice personal distancing, and sequester when we can, that will slow down again.
Should we be concerned?-  Well yes.  But paranoid and freaky no.

To be honest there are things we need to do.  We need to shut our borders down.  Thousands of people from China flew to Canada, and Mexico is not promoting any caution.  We need to be prepared to send help to them, but for our own safety, keep new people from coming here.  There are a few people in Mexico that are promoting the virus only affects the rich.  Anybody should know this is blatantly false.  As of this writing, there are 300 confirmed cases in Mexico.  Why so few?  They are not testing nor reporting on it.  It is not selfish to protect yourself and be willing to help others.  But for lots of reasons, the help should go there.  Not be handled here.

But if you look at the bigger picture versus the huge numbers, you understand you have about a one in fifty chance of even being exposed.  If you have been home for 2 weeks, and have not developed any symptoms, you’re probably OK.

What should I do?

Self-Sequester and maintain the 6-foot personal space bubble. Wash your hands.  Be ready for more sequester.  If we are lucky, we can hope to have things start to head back to normal in April. But that is a desire, not a fact.

Be encouraged:

Cures seem to be forthcoming, we may already have a cure. If people will stop trying to kill themselves.  NOTE: The Fishtank stuff is not the same kind of Hydro-Chloroquine that the medical professional use.  Chloroquine is a modern treatment for Malaria. It has been around for 50 years.
Also, note that vaccines are being developed and tested.  Isreal, as well as US Companies, are fast-tracking the vaccine research.

Summer is coming, with that means more sun and UV rays kill viruses.  Also with more outdoor activity means we will need to remember our spacing.

1. Tests are shipping en mass.
2. Ventilators for the truly sick are on the way.  The US has 30 times the number of ventilators as compared to Italy.  Previous administrations failed to restock our reserve after the H1N1 epidemic.  So our reserves are low.  But that is changing. 
3. If you have not developed symptoms, and you have been 100% sequestered for the last 2 weeks, you are probably safe for now.  If you had to go outside, most of us did, then you need to wait 2 more weeks from your last trip outside in the world.  Though at the store today, it was really easy to stay away from everybody else.

Keep a positive thought, focus on the care of your family and neighbors.

The numbers are depressing, but the odds are with you.

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

Take a look at the data, download the excel spreadsheet I used to make calculations.  All data were from the CDC Website as described.