Crunch Time - SARS-CoV 2 (CoVid-19) infection report for March 26th, 2020

I like to crunch numbers, yes I probably am a little disturbed.  Doing math comforts me and helps me understand.  When we hear global numbers approaching the million mark, it is easy to become frightened.  But if we look at things from the ants perspective there is a little more comfort in the numbers.

• According to the US CDC as of 4 PM yesterday -Total US cases: 85,356
• Total US deaths: 1,246
• Jurisdictions reporting cases: 54 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands.

(Source: US Center for Disease Control Website.

The Math:

US Citizens – 327, 800,00 (328Million Million - Approximated in 2018)
Percent of the Population carrying (est): between 853,000 and 8,356,000
(Calculation between 10 to 100 times the number of known infected.  This is to account for the number of people that may be carrying and not know it, or those that are not being reported, due to lack of testing)

Estimated Exposed:

This is based on simple math.  The number of known cases, multiplied by 10 or 100.  That is to account for the large number of people who may be asymptomatic, or only slightly ill and have not been reported.  These numbers are estimated at best.  But they seem to be generally accepted in epidemiological worlds.

What's it mean?

Somewhere between .026 and 2.6 percent of the US population has been exposed.  So in a crowd of 100 people, as many as 3 could have been exposed and may be contagious.  Just remember that recently both Madi Gras and Spring Break drew crowds. There has already been an uptake in cases.  As long as we practice personal distancing, and sequester when we can, that will slow down again.
Should we be concerned?-  Well yes.  But paranoid and freaky no.

To be honest there are things we need to do.  We need to shut our borders down.  Thousands of people from China flew to Canada, and Mexico is not promoting any caution.  We need to be prepared to send help to them, but for our own safety, keep new people from coming here.  There are a few people in Mexico that are promoting the virus only affects the rich.  Anybody should know this is blatantly false.  As of this writing, there are 300 confirmed cases in Mexico.  Why so few?  They are not testing nor reporting on it.  It is not selfish to protect yourself and be willing to help others.  But for lots of reasons, the help should go there.  Not be handled here.

But if you look at the bigger picture versus the huge numbers, you understand you have about a one in fifty chance of even being exposed.  If you have been home for 2 weeks, and have not developed any symptoms, you’re probably OK.

What should I do?

Self-Sequester and maintain the 6-foot personal space bubble. Wash your hands.  Be ready for more sequester.  If we are lucky, we can hope to have things start to head back to normal in April. But that is a desire, not a fact.

Be encouraged:

Cures seem to be forthcoming, we may already have a cure. If people will stop trying to kill themselves.  NOTE: The Fishtank stuff is not the same kind of Hydro-Chloroquine that the medical professional use.  Chloroquine is a modern treatment for Malaria. It has been around for 50 years.
Also, note that vaccines are being developed and tested.  Isreal, as well as US Companies, are fast-tracking the vaccine research.

Summer is coming, with that means more sun and UV rays kill viruses.  Also with more outdoor activity means we will need to remember our spacing.

1. Tests are shipping en mass.
2. Ventilators for the truly sick are on the way.  The US has 30 times the number of ventilators as compared to Italy.  Previous administrations failed to restock our reserve after the H1N1 epidemic.  So our reserves are low.  But that is changing. 
3. If you have not developed symptoms, and you have been 100% sequestered for the last 2 weeks, you are probably safe for now.  If you had to go outside, most of us did, then you need to wait 2 more weeks from your last trip outside in the world.  Though at the store today, it was really easy to stay away from everybody else.

Keep a positive thought, focus on the care of your family and neighbors.

The numbers are depressing, but the odds are with you.

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

Take a look at the data, download the excel spreadsheet I used to make calculations.  All data were from the CDC Website as described.

Dear Mister President - March 26th, 2020

Just a note to say keep doing your best.  Though I’m sure you’re not perfect, more perfect than I for sure, but still human, keep on keeping on.  Your administration is caught in a terrible situation, that will require drastic measures.  Please support the Constitution first and foremost.  That will keep us in the best place moving forward.

Concerning states are trying to get you to nationally mobilize the National Guard:  Please stay the course, allowing the states to do that if they wish. States like Montana, Iowa, and others may not need that, where states like California will.  The previous policies on homeless and illegal migrants tip the scales against those states.  Let them do what they need to do.  Keep up with providing the overall vision. 

• In our country of 340- million, as of today:
• Known Infected: 68,440 with SARS-CoV 2 (Covid-19, the virus from China)
• Deaths: 994 (54 reporting regions, the 50 states plus 4 territories) (Source: CDC, US Cases Daily Update)

Even if we were to assume 10 times that many infections, that is still less than .02% of the US population. Even 100 times that is still about 2% of the population.  The fast action of closing the boarders was a good idea.  Could we have closed travel to Canada and Mexico, maybe, at least restricted that to trade goods?

To stop this we will need to close our borders completely.  Even states like California and New York ought to consider closing access to food and goods only.  Folks in Transportation need to be tested regardless of their health status to avoid spreading the diseases. 

Even migrant workers whose visas were canceled may need to be tested and then allowed to work.  If we do not plant for spring and summer, there can be no harvest in the fall. 

New York and Los Angles notwithstanding, our self sequester seems to have done its job, having slowed down the rise. People's lives are more important than the economy, but the economy can affect everybody’s life.  The stimulus being passed by the Congress is a pork ridden piece of garbage, but I am sure the socialists in the congress and senate will use the powers they have to force the garbage into the final bill.  I am not sure you will have a choice but to sign it.  The question is: Will the fanning of the flames contained in the bill, be outweighed by the other good stuff.  I would support a veto and make a big deal of what the problems are.  Pointing to each piece and who put it in the bill.  This should be an election year.  Use that!  Do a line-item veto, sending it back to be fixed.  Not sure that that is a wise choice, I know that I don’t know all the details. I do know my wife (who is the only one working) could see some reduction in hours.  Her company must stay solvent. But I am also sure we will be all right.  Others will not be so lucky. 

Thank you and your staff for their service.  They call you a fascist and then try to get you to use the military to foist a socialist agenda upon “We the People.”

I pray for you and our leaders daily.  Please serve to the best of your ability and with the spirit of our founding fathers in your mind. 

God Bless you, Donald J Trump, President of the United States of America.

Gregor A Hinckley
Citizen, United States of America
eMail: hinckley.gregor@gmail.com

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.