Crunch time – More encouraging news from the numbers-04/17/2020

The Changes:

This is week 4 of this string of articles. A lot has changed in the last week. Germany took a whole town, and tested 80% of the population, regardless of symptoms. Trying to estimate what percentage of the population was infected. They cam up with about 15%. Test results in NYC - Women who were pregnant and came in to deliver children, were tested (220 of them) and 15% of them. Tested positive for CV19. Most seemed to be asymptomatic.

What does this mean?

 It shows that the mathematical model I’ve been using is close to correct. Sadly it is the worst-case estimate that was a little low. Instead of a ratio of 1 to 100 of known infected vs actual infected, it is 1 to 110. This means for every confirmed/Diagnosed case, there are 110 more people out there who are asymptomatic or who had such mild cases no diagnoses nor testing occurred. In my historical calculations, I changed that exposure estimate.

That means as of today we are running about 23% of the population seems having been exposed. The reasons for this are more have been tested. We have tested almost 2% of the population. There is a new test available in the next 2 weeks that takes minutes vs days. It is a less invasive nasal swab. So it is more comfortable and can be performed in Drive through or the Doctor Office. This too is good news. People tested are still 65% negative. So even though symptomatic they have common influenza or rhinovirus vs CoVid-19.

The numbers are so encouraging.

•  US Population (est.): 329,000,000 >>(See Notes)
• +Estimated exposed to the Virus: 75.68M
• (Estimated Percent of National Population 23.0%)
• *Confirmed Cases: 688,019 (Increase of 218,515)
• Total Deaths: 35,907 (increase of 17,916) 
• **Total Recovered: 56,177 (Corrected, some how an extra zero was posted earlier.)

This is all leveling off and the number of new deaths is decreasing. Even with New York City adding 3,700 deaths because they had died in their homes and had not been counted. These 3,700 people were never tested but were assumed to have CV19, they had coughs and fever. Is it worth going back and testing mem? Maybe, 3700 was 17% of the US deaths at the time. So that is a large increase.

What is so good about this? 

The infection rate is slowing. More people have been tested but the rate of increase has dropped. The death rate has dropped a ton with the revised estimate of the infected to 0.043% of infected at risk of dying. Most places have access to PPE and many US factories have re-tooled to supply that stuff, instead of relying on imports. Again showing the flexibility of an almost free market.

There are treatments that are working!

Hydroxychloroquine (HyC for short) is being tested in South Dakota in studies to determine if it is a cure. There is a tone of anecdotal evidence that combining it with other things, does seem to have a very high success rate. This is a prime example of why you do not want to think like a News Media Schill.

Often it is said that HyC is not listed as a cure. Of course not, CV19 is a novel virus, one that has not been studied, except in a few places. And no cure had been found there. The idea of a “novel” virus is not that it is well-read, but that it is unique. Though most folks agree it is similar to SARS (SARS-CoV) hence it is officially SARS-CoV 2 in the lab rat world.

So what is your risk where 23% of the people have been exposed? (based on moderately conservative estimates)

Note the death rate went from 0.37% to 0.047%, even with NYC adjustment. At 0.37% you had a 1 in 292 chance of dying. Now your chance is down to 1 in 2,128.

Does that mean if you leave your house 2,128 times you will get the virus and die? No. Remember there is a “New Deck”, to use a gambler phrase, every time you leave the house. The cards are shuffled when you leave the door.

So when is it safe enough?

Now for most people. The financial costs aside, there is a manufacturing shortage coming unless we get back outside and do our stuff. This is true for a small and large business. There are food plants shutting down and farmers destroying crops they can’t sell because we can’t process that food. Right now, we have time to catch up. But in 4 weeks, we will start seeing shortages. Those shortages can cause death too. Again, there is the question of “Does it matter how you die?” If you are a socialist, it does. Because if you die from a bullet, you are venerated as a “gun death” if you die from a knife or beating, well then you are just a crime statistic. If you die from a lack of medicine or starve, that is OK because you did not die “from CV19!”

So is it good news?

Yes! Your odds of survival just jumped up by some 600%. That huge change is due to the larger testing data.

Define safe? That is an individual decision. But the point of a free society is you do get to choose. At what point do we stop living in fear and go out and have a life? As of now your odds of dying from CoVid-19 are lower than the top 12 most common causes of death in the United States. That is down from 3rd most common last week.

Every time you open your eyes you put yourself at risk. According to the National Safety Council, if you go outside, 1 of 114 times you will die from a “Motor Vehicle Crash.” Whenever you eat you will choke on your food 1 out of 3,461 meals. Yet you still eat every day. If you choose to go outside, it is probably still a good idea to practice your personal space thing. Wearing a mask may make others feel better and reduce your chances from 1 in 2, 128 to about 1 in 3, 093.

Can restaurants help be reducing tables in their dining room? Would you go to a restaurant and eat if they advertised a 6-foot clearance between usable booths and tables? Thes kind of thing is how we define our new normal. But a restaurant will have trouble making profits if the table count is cut by 50-70 percent.

Governor Brown let’s get back to life.

Notes:

* - Tested or diagnosed through clinical means.
** - Tested free of CV19 twice over 2 weeks, after diagnosed as positive.
+ - Estimate of infected based on the idea that only 10% of the total infected have been confirmed.
 >> - Dropped down to be consistent with the US news media, though this estimate is 2 years old and does not include unregistered persons. The 2020 census should clear this up.

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

By Order of the Queen Governor of Oregon – Your Dining Hall is now confiscated.

The Issue:

Can the government (State or Federal) close services by private companies for an indeterminate amount of time? Not in Oregon! When does public safety trump personal freedom? It should not. Yet here we are. Forced isolation – When does Sequester/Quarantine become worse than the disease?  Let’s take a look!

Is what you die from this important?

Economy and mental health seem to be snakes swallowing each other. When people are happy the economy is strong, when the economy goes down, mental health suffers.  Last year in Oregon there were 844 suicides.  That is an average of 70 a month.  Every month.  As of April 13th, 2020 Oregon has lost 52 people. 4 In the last 24 hours.

Now that is terrible.  But what are the odds of suicide has increased over the last month of quarantine?  I have asked the Oregon Department of health for the 2020 statistics by month.  But they have not had time to supply those yet.  Oddly I have found no reliable monthly tally of that information. I will end up doing a blog on mental health in the future when I have facts to provide.

Governor Brown has signed 15 Executive Orders (EO) as of the date of this writing (04/13/2020).  Most of them for set amounts of time.  EO20-06 Specified that the restaurant dining room and facilities be closed for 30 days. On April 7th, Governor Brown extended that order, in its entirety for an indefinite period.

It seems to me this is a bad idea for many reasons.  Do we need to continue to distance ourselves and wash hands?  Sure.  If somebody has health issues should they remain sequestered? That would be reasonable.  But if we don’t start looking at how to safely navigate a world full of pandemics waiting to happen, the better.

The Promises:

The hope of a vaccine or cure is good but a vacant promise.  When HIV was first discovered in the population, it was promised but never found.  HIV First made an appearance in 1968.  During the 1970’s it was considered a pandemic (it still is) and billions have been poured into its cure.  We do have reliable tests, but no vaccine nor anything resembling a cure.  Sure we can prolong the life span of the infected.  But it can’t be cured.  So even science can’t deliver on these kinds of promises.

Welcome to the new reality. 

So what next?

Oregon has this covered.  There is no law to change, it just needs to be applied.  If the State confiscates property, they must compensate the citizen or company.  It seems that Governor Kate Brown has stolen your facilities if you are a dine/Drink- in a facility. If I were you, I’d send the state an invoice for renting out your service areas for March 17th to April 21st.

Oregon Statute(ORS) 433.441(5-6):
(5) A proclamation of a state of public health emergency expires when terminated by a declaration of the Governor or no more than 14 days after the date the public health emergency is proclaimed unless the Governor expressly extends the proclamation for an additional 14-day period.

(6) When real or personal property is taken under power granted by this section, the owner of the property shall be entitled to reasonable compensation from the state. [2003 c.555 §1; 2007 c.445 §23; 2013 c.332 §3]

It seems to me, that specifically for a health emergency, the Governor can not set these emergency powers for more than 14 days. It also seems to me, by declaring dining rooms off-limits, and making no state effort to decontaminate or re-open them, she is “Taking possession of” the dining areas.

If I were a lawyer, and I am not, I would see if there is a class action suit just waiting to happen.

I am not interested in breaking the quarantine, not because I am afraid of the state, but if I spread this to somebody else, I would be very unhappy.  It is the uncertainty that causes stress because I don’t know if I have it.  So maybe staying quarantined until we do have at least an antibody test if you are at risk, is a good idea.  There are no guarantees, people in their 20s have died from this.  And some did not seem to have any co-morbidities. But the odds at this point are 0.338 to 100. Or if you want a sensational number 296 to 1 of contracting SARS-CoVid 2(CoVid-19, CV19).

You have to decide if it worth the risk.  But in a free country or state, it should be your choice.

Notes:

* Not signed by the Secretary of State – Bev Clamo.
A full list of Executive orders 2003 to Present. Downloadable PDF of the signed orders.

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

A Change in Culture - Changing Normalcy.

Changing culture can either be easy or hard. The sad thing is it is a personal choice, not a societal issue. We are forcing a culture change in the United States right now. It is because of how we are handling the current pandemic crisis. Suicide hotlines are up over 300 percent. Other help groups are seeing a boom in things. As a 12 step practitioner myself, I am seeing a baseline cultural change in how we do things. But there is hope.

These changes are neither bad nor good. But they could be awful if we define normal the way we used to. That is the part we seem to have lost from the “Greatest Generation” who acted selflessly, in fighting the Axis Powers. Accepting reality is why they went to fight. If we did not defeat the Axis Powers, everybody knew they would be here, eventually.

I have to be amazed at what happened in the first part of the 20th century. People were in two camps on the idea of flying, it was not possible, or it was 50 years in the future. Then there was Kittyhawk and the Wright brother. In the 30 years between Kittyhawk (1903), and 1933, when Adolf Hitler was just getting off the ground, we went from first flight to the founding of PanAm Airlines in 1927. From there to landing on the moon in 1969. In 63 years we went from zero to hero. Now we have more changes to deal with. And again the secret is to accept what is true, and move forward.

This is not even the first major Pandemic, since the flight of the Wright Brothers. What became known as the “Spanish Flu” (the first case seems to have been in Alabama in 1917). We fought a war, and that pandemic may have even helped shorten that war, though it killed more people than the war did. Again they accepted what is and dealt with where to go from here.

Do we continue the quarantine?

That may the wrong question, the right question maybe can we continue? At what point does the prevention become worse than the disease? If we continue with this, what will happen? Well, the food will get short. Governors are telling farmers, ranchers, dairies, and slaughterhouses to close down. Even though we have trucks to haul the food, thank your local truck driver, there may come a point when there is nothing to load on the truck. So we could be in a situation with a food shortage caused by the government.

People are living in fear of getting a disease, which is for now unlikely. That may change. But despite the week ending April 11th, being one fo the deadliest in the United States for CV19, there is hope. The overall spread is decreasing in speed.

How do I live like this?

You don’t. You live the way you need to now, not the way you did in the past. The new reality lifestyle is waiting to be defined. But can you accept that? Acceptance is NOT the solution to all your problems, it is the first step in finding a solution. So f you accept the new reality the next choice is yours. Factories are re-tooling to make Personal Protection Equipment (PPE) for medical personal. It is time for me to re-tool myself for the new reality.

Where to start? How about if you S.P.E.A.K.?

SPEAK is an acronym for steps to go through when considering your day. There is a video here about it, presented by Verve Counseling LLC. Sara is an LCSW.

The idea being if you configure a structure around your life, you can have a better life. It does need to be in the confines of current reality. So can you find a job you can do, that will keep you as safe as possible? Sadly staying at home is not even a guarantee of health. Besides the health risks of being inside all the time, it is not reality. But if you have lost your job, can you find or even better create one that you can do with a limited risk of exposure.

We do need to think about limiting exposure. You can not eliminate it. People are getting sick with no discernable path to infection. Nobody they know has it. They have been home for two or three weeks, and only had limited contact with the outside world. So they “did everything right” and still ended up exposed.

So try building your SPEAK Model Structure in your life. See if you can’t bust out of that box. There is a possibility this may be our “armistice” year. But more about that next week.

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

Crunch Time - SARS-CoV 2 (CoVid-19) infection report for March 26th, 2020

I like to crunch numbers, yes I probably am a little disturbed.  Doing math comforts me and helps me understand.  When we hear global numbers approaching the million mark, it is easy to become frightened.  But if we look at things from the ants perspective there is a little more comfort in the numbers.

• According to the US CDC as of 4 PM yesterday -Total US cases: 85,356
• Total US deaths: 1,246
• Jurisdictions reporting cases: 54 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands.

(Source: US Center for Disease Control Website.

The Math:

US Citizens – 327, 800,00 (328Million Million - Approximated in 2018)
Percent of the Population carrying (est): between 853,000 and 8,356,000
(Calculation between 10 to 100 times the number of known infected.  This is to account for the number of people that may be carrying and not know it, or those that are not being reported, due to lack of testing)

Estimated Exposed:

This is based on simple math.  The number of known cases, multiplied by 10 or 100.  That is to account for the large number of people who may be asymptomatic, or only slightly ill and have not been reported.  These numbers are estimated at best.  But they seem to be generally accepted in epidemiological worlds.

What's it mean?

Somewhere between .026 and 2.6 percent of the US population has been exposed.  So in a crowd of 100 people, as many as 3 could have been exposed and may be contagious.  Just remember that recently both Madi Gras and Spring Break drew crowds. There has already been an uptake in cases.  As long as we practice personal distancing, and sequester when we can, that will slow down again.
Should we be concerned?-  Well yes.  But paranoid and freaky no.

To be honest there are things we need to do.  We need to shut our borders down.  Thousands of people from China flew to Canada, and Mexico is not promoting any caution.  We need to be prepared to send help to them, but for our own safety, keep new people from coming here.  There are a few people in Mexico that are promoting the virus only affects the rich.  Anybody should know this is blatantly false.  As of this writing, there are 300 confirmed cases in Mexico.  Why so few?  They are not testing nor reporting on it.  It is not selfish to protect yourself and be willing to help others.  But for lots of reasons, the help should go there.  Not be handled here.

But if you look at the bigger picture versus the huge numbers, you understand you have about a one in fifty chance of even being exposed.  If you have been home for 2 weeks, and have not developed any symptoms, you’re probably OK.

What should I do?

Self-Sequester and maintain the 6-foot personal space bubble. Wash your hands.  Be ready for more sequester.  If we are lucky, we can hope to have things start to head back to normal in April. But that is a desire, not a fact.

Be encouraged:

Cures seem to be forthcoming, we may already have a cure. If people will stop trying to kill themselves.  NOTE: The Fishtank stuff is not the same kind of Hydro-Chloroquine that the medical professional use.  Chloroquine is a modern treatment for Malaria. It has been around for 50 years.
Also, note that vaccines are being developed and tested.  Isreal, as well as US Companies, are fast-tracking the vaccine research.

Summer is coming, with that means more sun and UV rays kill viruses.  Also with more outdoor activity means we will need to remember our spacing.

1. Tests are shipping en mass.
2. Ventilators for the truly sick are on the way.  The US has 30 times the number of ventilators as compared to Italy.  Previous administrations failed to restock our reserve after the H1N1 epidemic.  So our reserves are low.  But that is changing. 
3. If you have not developed symptoms, and you have been 100% sequestered for the last 2 weeks, you are probably safe for now.  If you had to go outside, most of us did, then you need to wait 2 more weeks from your last trip outside in the world.  Though at the store today, it was really easy to stay away from everybody else.

Keep a positive thought, focus on the care of your family and neighbors.

The numbers are depressing, but the odds are with you.

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

Take a look at the data, download the excel spreadsheet I used to make calculations.  All data were from the CDC Website as described.

My Weightloss experience, or my Story (So far):

2009,  about My 686 pounds.

People look at me and are shocked how fat I am.  As of this writing, I weigh 448 pounds.  But I was not always that heavy, at one time I was much heavier.  My top actual recorded weight was 686 pounds, in May of 2009.  Prior to that, I had trouble finding scales, but the shirt I wore in this picture at one time was too small for me.  So I weighed considerably more.  But lets stick with the what I can verify.

This picture was taken when I placed membership at the Santee Church of Christ in East San Diego County, California.  I started going back to church at the suggestion of a counselor who was treating me for depression after I lost my job.  Yes, the background was Photo Shopped.  I did not have any control over that.

After losing about 150 pounds on my own, I suddenly shot back up about 75 pounds.  That was in 2013.  I walked in the door ready to find a sponsor and get going.  I did not find one.  I had to go to 6 different meetings to find out what OA could do for me…. Good Idea!  I started searching for somebody to sponsor me from the big book of Alcoholics Anonymous.  I finally found my first sponsor.  We will call him “George.” 

My wife said I looked Zen! 3 months of OA, 586 pounds

And I will hug him and kiss him and… George had multiple addictions as many of us do.  He was in AA, NA and OA.  For 3 months he tried to convince me I was an AA as well.  I had assignments to drink booze and wine and prove I could not put it down.  I had no trouble.  I could leave half glasses all over the place.  I could even get a glass and not drink it at all.  You see there was no sense of “Ease and Comfort” for me in Alcohol.  Food on the other hand…

After 3 months in OA,  I lost close to 100 pounds.  I had abstinence that is typical, none of this, none of that.  Track your food and eliminate trigger foods.  Every time I eliminated a new trigger food, another one would pop up.  Eventually, George fell off all of his wagons, all at one time.  He did the right thing and hopped back on.  But I choose to seek sponsorship elsewhere.  Finding a Big Book of AA sponsor (BBAA) is hard in OA.  I tried a few, I did build a support group of like-minded OA folks.  I did not want a friend as a sponsor.  I tried the OA 12 n 12, the book Overeaters Anonymous and other things.  Though I do think the 12 n 12 workbook is an excellent tool, the BBAA is still what I focus my attention on. 

Eating to your health
Not an affiliate link

I fell off the wagon 3 times.  In 2014 I finally had an epiphany of sorts.  I did not know how to eat well, and all the “advice” I got was mostly wrong for me.  Being the computer geek that I am, I searched for the best, safest and easiest diet I could find.  No matter how I searched, all the research pointed to the Atkins Diet.  So, I built a food plan based on that.  Whole foods heavy in fats, moderate protein, and as few carbs as I could.  I lost 35 pounds the first month.  By week 2 I was never hungry.  I had to set alarms to eat or I would forget.  I had worked my steps at least twice through and started again.  In December of 2014, I found this book:

It changed me again because I learned more about what to eat.  I had started journaling why I ate certain foods in October of 2014.  I came up with my current abstinence after working on it for two weeks:

Abstinence: Eat for the healthy purpose of nutrition. 

(Can you believe it took two weeks for one lousy sentence.  It had to have depth and weight.  This did for me)

So, if I am eating for another reason, I have to decide if I am binging or not. 

 

November 2019, Weight 502 pounds approximately

I was incredibly active in OA in San Diego.  I relocated to Oregon in November of 2017.  I did not seek out OA right away, I got depressed again and probably gained a little weight back.  My insurance company set me up with RealAppeal .  It gave me some accountability, they sent me a food scale, some literature, exercise videos as well as a bathroom scale that could weigh my 495-pound self.  (See Picture).  They have coaches and weekly webinars to help you through.  They are a CICO (Calories In Calories Out) group so I do not follow their meal plans.  I still am Keto, but I do use the accountability.  It has helped.  It also made me seek out OA here, in Oregon.  I am starting back up with meetings and I do online video meetings as well.  One of the meetings I attend, I think I am the only abstinent member.  And most folks here seem to have never opened the BBAA. All I can do is try and be of service. 

August 2019, 448 pounds. 

I have lost 57 pounds over the 10 months of Real Appeal.  I am getting back into OA and I recently was found by somebody who wanted help via video chat.  I now sponsor online.  Though that has its own challenges.  I may post about that later.  Tech is coming, get used to it. 

Why I am sharing my success?  It needs to happen.  I see so many more “I’m struggling” posts.  And for those people, I hope this will be helpful.

If you are in OA and struggling, if you have been reading the material for 10 years, but can’t stay abstinent, remember our program is based on the BBAA!  You might try that.

It worked for me.  

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

Prodical Son Returns. It's Party Time!

I have spent the last several years trying to decide about my self.  I have a long history as a Christian and I choose to leave the church several years ago.  Just like most folks God did not leave me, I left God.  I have never had any doubts about that. But I took along journey in between.  My issue with church of course boiled down to my pride, nothing else really.  I told my self that is was the other folks pride and prejudices, and yes they may have been a contributing factor.  But other folks behavior does not dictate mine.  Here is a brief history of my journey.


Early 1970's: My Mom started attending Church.  Strangely my Step Father did not.  As some folks may know this is a common condition.  She was baptized in to Christ and at the age of twelve I followed in her footsteps.  By this time I was starting to grow and really believe.  By the time I was 17 I wanted to get a little rowdy in a good way.  I attended a Missions program called Adventures In Missions (AIM - At Sunset International Bible Institute).  It was a great program. At the time it was through the Sunset School of Preaching.

I sojourned in Lesotho Africa and it was a great experience.  There were challenges but over all I would do it again in a heart beat.

After I came home things started to change for me. As is somewhat normal the congregation welcomed me home and quickly started treating me like a 14 year old again.  For young people coming home for foreign religious service this is a common occurrence. You come home they welcome you home and between an inflated ego on my part and a lack of the ability of my fellow Christians being able to see my spiritual growth and desire to serve.  I was not able to continue to be the person I wanted to be.  I acknowledge with all humility it was my pride that assisted me in loosing my patience.


I had an incident happen at my home congregation.  I am not saying my reaction was correct and  I am not going to name names or go into any details except to say it was race related, and it shocked me no end.  this was the Nth time a racial issue in the church had shocked me and it was the last straw. From having to be asked if I could live with a African American    during school in Texas, for the harassment that both me and my Room Mate endured just because he tanned better than I did. And the last straw being the incident here in San Diego CA that tossed my patience over the edge.  I later fell completely away from the Church.I married a non-believer in 1986 who 'till this day is my wonderful wife.

I actually through a period that I did not believe God even existed.  If anybody asked me I would say I was an atheist.  Now some folk might not understand how I could go from Mission Work to Atheist in about 7 years,  I only have to say is I could not "sort of" believe in God.  It is all or nothing to me.  It is not fair to God if I pretended and and I felt it was disrespectful to the church to just show up and pretend to be Christian.

Some years ago I started fight severe clinical depression.  I just started getting treated for it and some things have crossed my mind. It all started wit the Moral Majority and the some folks in the Tea Party. I love the core principles of the Tea Party movement and continue to do what I can to support a re-founding of our Constitutional roots. And having said that, as with the Moral Majority of the 1980's, there are strong religious undertones.   I started to write a book, If it is ever published I will let you know and I had to do a lot of research.  The core concept of the book is how the bible teaches us to interact with non-believers.  There was a lot of reading of the scriptures.   That caused me to re-think me position on God.  I have spent the last two years thinking and studying .  Now I have come back to Christ.

I am continuing to study. I will be posting some musings here and hope folks will comment and help become even more grounded.

Feel free to post comments or if you think I should show your blog because you disagree or agree.  Yes Christ and God have welcomed me home. But this is only a restart of a journey I started some 37 years ago.

Phileo