Is 44 countries enough?

In 27 of 44 Countries, Mandatory Face Masks reduce Deaths?

Recently in the American Journal of Preventative Medicine published a study declaring that the mandatory use of masks in the SARS-CoV-2 and MERS environment prevented deaths.  It was a “ModelingCovid-19 Mortality across 44 Countries” indicating face coverings “may reduce” mortality.  The study was simple enough but it brought to my mind some questions. I have always thought the most important part of any discussion was asking the right questions.  The basic results of the study indicated there were 288 deaths per million people in countries that did not mandate masks and only 48 per million in countries that did.  A significant difference. Two things to point out about this is that the death rate in both instances was very low.  Even the 288 as almost the same as a Flu epidemic of two one-hundredths of 1% death rate in the population.  That is still higher than four one-thousandth of 1% for the masked.

NOTE: The data for this study was from February to May 2020 so Vaccines were not a factor.

Why deaths?

In the material the claim was it reduced virial load.  Maybe I suppose, but then just simple isolation would also be a determining factor and that does not seem to be true. People place in isolation still get worse. They paid no attention to the infection rate, which in some of these places we know to be quiet high.

We know from experience that despite masking: age, population density and general population health are contributing factors.

Was age a factor?

According to the model, the average age for the 17 “non-masking” countries was slightly higher at 42 years old versus 41 years old on average for the 27 countries forcing the masking.  This really does not sound like a lot.  Until you understand that the over 60 population was moderately higher in those non-masking, immigration was major factor and as well as population density which was higher in the 17 non-masking countries. This would indicate a more stressed medical community and possibly lead to a higher death rate on its own merits.

Did the 27 lower death rate masked countries have a different treatment protocol?

It is not indicated in the research if any protocols were used in the lower death rate countries different than the non-mask countries either.  If the treatment methods were the same, then the study is valid.  If most if not all of the masked countries also used varied treatments or any significant treatment at all, then the study is really flawed.  Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine were already being used in some places by then.

Assuming that just masking was the primary factor is a false promise.  There is also no real indication that they looked at the population’s compliance.  It is one thing to force a mandate, it is another to comply.  Japan is known to have one of the highest mask compliant populations at 91%, Ireland is about 88%.  So the level of compliance could affect the results.

Why 44 countries?

I am always skeptical of limited quantity studies.  Back in the 1960s the “Mediterranean Diet” was based on something called the 7 Countries studies. Seven countries had diets that were low in Saturated fat and high in carbohydrates that had a low rate of heart disease.  It made Olive oil a cure-all and was touted as the secret to a long life.  Soon after America became a far more obese nation.  What is never mentioned is that they had data for some 30+ countries.  They chose 7 because the charts made the wanted result. Low fat, moderate carb, less heart disease.   In truth, if you mapped all the data there was no conclusion in the amount of saturated fat.  Countries like Switzerland and France wherein there, both had high fat, medium to low carb diets, yet their level of cardiovascular disease was also minimal. 

So here we are with a minimal sample size really.  It was too complicated to use county data in the US or province data in Canada because, well I don’t know.  So we have 44 countries picked out of probably 70 we have data for?

When you limit your data, it always looks like you want a specific result.  That is the joy of statistics.  You can always get the results you want, it is just how you look at the data points. So I  encourage you to be skeptical.  There is an awful lot we are not being told. 

What percentage of deaths in the US are vaccinated?  In Oregon, 99% of people over 65 are vaccinated. And they account for 90+ percent of the deaths in the state.  So how many of them are vaccinated?  Nobody will say. Some states have indicated 50% of those dying are vaccinated.  60% o the new infections are vaccinated.  To me, the vaccine, that I did get, does not seem to be effective.

Why are miscarriages up over 60% in Invitro Fertilization Clinics Nationwide among vaccinated women over 2019?

Why are cardiovascular issues up 100% in men below 40 and in good health nationwide in 2021?

Why are school districts in Oregon asking children to eat lunch in 35 degrees in December when the risk of death in children below 16 is so low, vaccinated or not?

Asking questions is how we learn.  Asking the right question is how we advance.  Currently I wear a mask for the fear of others.  Not because I am afraid of them, but because they are afraid of me.  It is a sad situation.

Next time you see a person with a mask remember it is YOUR FEAR that drives that.  

Here’s a question: How long do you want to live in fear? 

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

Forgive but not forget, “This is the way?”

On the evening of September 10^th, 2001, the skyline of New York City sported its then familiar skyline.  It’s “Twin Towers” rising to touch the sky.  A Hub of international trade and financial interaction on an international scale.  People of literally of every religion, ethnicity, social and economic niche could be found working in and around this marvel of engineering. “The World Trade Center” (WTC) was a feather in the cap of the Big Apple. For 28 years, the WTC and the Statue of Liberty were the symbols of the United States.

For 15 years, it was the obsession of Osama bin Laden.

In 1993 bin Laden orchestrated the First bombing, Trying to collapse the towers by using a car bomb in the underground parking.  Though several parking floors were damaged, the structure remained sound.  The US did not respond. 

Nine years later, and several other Embassy attacks by al Qaeda, they orchestrated the Infamous 9/11 attacks.  Getting on to planes with box cutters and such and taking control of aircraft through terror and intimidation. These terrorists flew one plane into each tower, one into the most protected portion of the Pentagon, and another was brought down in a field by the passengers who fought for control and died in the effort.  

At 8:46 AM Eastern time (15:46 UT) the first plane crashes into the North Tower. Seventeen minutes later the South Tower is struck.

At 10:28 Eastern (17:28 UT) the skyline of New York City is changed forever as the Twin Towers fell. The Pentagon has been struct, and Flight 93 has crashed in a Pennsylvania field. Thousands are dead, and the country mourns.

This is where the “War on Terror” starts.

Never Forget! But can we heal if we never forgive? 

Forgiveness or “to forgive” is a noble trait. In Christianity, it is an integral part of our belief:

For if you forgive others for their transgressions, your heavenly Father will also forgive you. But if you do not forgive others, then your Father will not forgive your transgressions.
Mathew 6:14-15 (NASB 1995)

There are no conditions placed on why we forgive. It is just an expected duty. As the forgiven, that does not mean I do not suffer the consequences. Justice demands it. I think a study of the Book of Philemon is a great example of this. But I won’t bore you with those details here. If you want a blog on that let me know in the comments. Suffice it to say that Paul is clear that forgiveness is expected, but justice is not too much to ask. So forgive, but not forget, this is the way.

Islam also teaches forgiveness. They even break it down into two distinct types. One where you have no “power” This is more about a pardon, patience, or tolerance on your part, a personal journey. It is noble but not the important kind. Then there is the type where you have the opportunity to take revenge or exact a toll. Where you are in control and can extract justice. This forgiveness, the Prophet says is much better and something to be cherished by the person who does this. I will not risk an infidels insult to Islam by quoting the Holy Qur’an.

In doing some research for this I did a quick search on “Psychology
forgiveness” and found tons of articles dealing with self-forgiveness as well as forgiveness of others. The basic idea of all of them is that forgiveness is for the forgiver and not so much for the forgivee (Yes that is a new word, See definition).

Am I saying at this point we should trust our new “Friends” the Taliban?

No! I fully expect something awful to happen on September 11th, 2021. They will blame ISIS-K or ISIL or somebody else. And in the last 20 years, there have been few years where something was not either thwarted or did happen someplace in the world.

Yet I think forgiving is a major step in our recovery. I do not hate Islam, Muslims, Persians, Arabic, or Afghan peoples. I do not trust Radical Islamists who promote Sharia Law.  Why?  Because, by their own admittance, peace is obtained by world domination.  You will have 3 choices in a Sharia Afghanistan, Convert to Sharia/Suni Islam, be a slave or die.  It is not complicated.

Will we need to go back to Afghanistan?

I don’t know.  But I expect to.  We have left behind Americans and supporters.  We have abandoned our allies. Our President and State Department has committed Treason and Misdemeanors in arming our enemies and breaking the trust of the American People and her allies.  We have created the 26^th most powerful military in the world by abandoning some $85 Billion of advanced military equipment, who also thinks that they should rule under a medieval architecture of Sharia Law. And will probably gleefully sell our tech to both Russia and China, people whom we seem poised to fight in the near future.    We have broken trusts around the globe.  The only way you earn that back is to pay the price.

Let me be clear. 

For 20 years our service members fought, bled, and died to keep this country safe.  Their mission was to keep the wolves in the mountains of Afghanistan, and they were mostly successful.  Out fighting personnel.  Have nothing to be ashamed of.  They fought well and did their duty.  It is not their fault our ambiguous mission of “War on Terror” did not give them the direction they needed.  Next time we end up in a war, “We the People” must hold our leaders to a higher standard.  I don’t want a war on an idea.  We will look for and find an enemy.

Ideas can’t be destroyed, enemies can. And it all starts first with forgiveness.

First, we must stop fighting ourselves.  Come together under a principle of Liberty and Justice for all.  Not Equity or Social Justice that tries to guarantee outcomes that cannot be upheld. But the opportunity for each person

Remember first we are all human on this planet.  Homo Sapiens. If you are in a hospital and need a kidney, do you care if the person who gives you one is Afghan, African, Chinese, or Caucasian?  I know I don’t.

In the end Mr. President, I can forgive you for your mishandling of Afghanistan and its withdrawal.  But that does not mean I can forgo the consequences of your actions! The incompetence of your actions and that of the State Department you have appointed are criminal. The abandonment of US citizens and others for no other reason than to meet a political goal simply shows your lack of personal morals.

Just because I forgive, does not mean I forget.  If I forgive a doctor for a bad diagnosis, I do not allow them to continue as my doctor.  If my contractor builds a bad staircase, I forgive them and make sure the folks that build the bad staircase do not continue to work on my project. 

Mr. President, Secretary of State Blinker, Thank you for your service, I hereby accept your resignations.

Or we could do the whole perp walk thing out the West entrance in cuffs for Treason.  The choice is yours.

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

Does a war end just because you say so?

On September 10^th, 2001, if you asked Al Qaeda they would have told you they were at war with the Great Shatan, America. Suddenly on September 11^th of that year, America became educated as to our status in that conflict.  Though we had fought skirmishes since the 1980s, we always treated them as a punitive police action.  Play nice or we will throw bombs and missiles at you. We never viewed it as a war.

The last war that ended was World War II.  In that case, the enemies of the allies surrendered. There was no question the war had ended.   Later the enemies we defeated asked us, the allies to help them rebuild and we have had a presence there, to guarantee their freedom from the new communist enemy. Slightly different than in Korea.

In Korea, we got sucked into a 70-year occupation of territory to protect the southern half of a republic.  That was negotiated by the “peace.” A peace that has threatened to erupt into war the entire time. 

We retreated from Vietnam. Should we have been there?  Probably not. Again we fought for no real purpose and then withdrew under political pressure from home.  World War II had a cause.  Korea and Vietnam did not. 

In these 20 years of unfettered conflict, we have attacked countries all over the middle east. In that time, we have destabilized the entire region.  We have gifted $80 billion in advanced weapons to a group of tribal leaders who wish to establish a theocracy.  Who has a vision of global peace through making all of us either radical Islamists, slaves, or dead!  In their eyes, those are your choices. Now they are better armed than many nations. 

What was the purpose in Afghanistan?

I would love to be done with Afghanistan.  That has been a wish of mine for years.  My reason is I’ve seen no end in sight.  There has not been an exit strategy in any conflict we’ve been in for 70 years. But the answer to ending a war is to defeat an enemy.  Not negotiate a peace, nor simply walk away.  With Japan, Germany, and Italy, we defeated them and then offered the hand of friendship to help them rebuild. For many years we had a good relationship with our allies, and we could count those former enemies among that number.  Now we have broken the trust of our allies, but we have armed people who have sworn to destroy us. Forgive me if I think this is not a win, but an abject failure.

In a news conference today (08/31/2021) Representative Dan Crenshaw, who was injured in that Afghan war in 2012, made very clear how abandoning hundreds if not thousands of American Citizens, and even more, Afghan Citizens who helped us fight is a travesty that may never be resolved.  That breach of trust and violation of responsible behavior is yet another misdemeanor if not a High Crime that this President has committed in the name of his political agenda. So the list of impeachable offenses continues.   There was no sound reason to handle this in the way his administration has. President Biden exercised criminal intent by tying the hands of our military and forcing them to do what they did.  And our Military Command showed their true colors by capitulating and not fighting for a congressional review. Again, passion over principle in the politics of the Democrats.

Please note who is responsible!

If you really think it is President Biden you are wrong.  It was obvious what was going to happen if he came into power.  President Biden was going to be exactly the President he has become. A man with no principles.  Tossed to and fro by the whims of his party.  Paying no attention to the principles set in our constitution.  Ignoring the Supreme court.  If he is willing to ignore the Supreme Court on the Border and property rights, what is next?  Do you think any of your individual rights are safe here?  Like Maxine Waters Said “Just do it! What can they do?”

This is what you voted for America when you voted Personality over principle.  Congratulations.  The blood of our fellow citizens is on your hands.  And if you think it is not, then feel free to lie to yourself while the rest of your rights are taken away. 

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

#ImpeachBiden, #ImpeachBidenHarrisPelosiNOW

Can we now impeach President Biden?

To impeach a president they must be guilty of high crimes or misdemeanors.  Though “High Crimes” is relatively obvious, we consider misdemeanors as traffic tickets or lower crimes like petty theft.  In the 1828 Webster Dictionary:

Misdemeanor: In law, an offense of a less atrocious nature than a crime. Crimes and misdemeanors are mere synonymous terms; but in common usage, the word crime is made to denote offenses of a deeper and more atrocious dye, while small faults and omissions of less consequence are comprised under the gentler name of misdemeanors

That is a far cry from what we currently consider shoplifting a candy bar.

Treason is a high crime.  In that same dictionary:

In the United States, treason is confined to the actual levying of war against the United States, or in adhering to their Enemies, giving them aid and comfort.

Question:  Is abandoning a fully equipped airbase giving aid and comfort to the enemy?

According to news reports we “Turned over” Bagram Airbase to the Afgan Military.  Some follow-up reports indicate Afghanistan was not notified we were leaving.  The Taliban/Isis and looters arrived at the base before the Afgan Military and took control of the billions in advanced weapons. This was done at the order of President Biden

Question: As an American, should you expect your government to protect you?

As of this writing, people with American passports are not being allowed on to the tarmac at Kabul Airport.  Estimates of 11,000 to 19,000 Americans are outside the fences.  They are people that will be used by the new regime as hostages or bargaining chips, compounding the crimes or treason by this administration.    I would at least consider this a breach of trust and therefore a misdemeanor under the constitution.

Question: Is this President Bidens fault?

This is a valid question.  When this first started I was willing to think it may not be.  But let us look at the facts. 

1. The date of May1^st has been known for over a year.  The Current administration then picked August 31st after they failed to act on what was needed.  The 15-20 thousand US non-combatant civilians should have been evacuated starting in January.
2. The administration gave the names and identities of Americans and US Green cardholders to the Taliban and therefore ISIS.  There is no indication that these people are actually allies.  They have not kept their word on any occasion. 
3. As soon as The current administration was sworn in, the Taliban was on the offensive.  No consequences were given to the Taliban for breaking their promise of non-aggression. 
4. For the first time in history, the State Department was put in charge of an evacuation.  The last time the State Depart was put in charge we saw another

   

   Everything I need to know I
   learned from "Princess Bride"

   
   failure in Benghazi. And again no charges were filed

Mr. President, your administration is to blame for this.  Not Mr. Trump.  Just like at the border, had you followed the existing plan things would not have escalated.

Are you in charge or not President Biden? 

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

Dear Oregon, Being a Cop just got harder.

US Navy Traning Session

The Special Session of the Oregon legislature is trying to bring about major changes in the way Law enforcement is organized. The law of “unintended consequences” will increase crime and the number of people seriously injured or killed by law enforcement. With the new investigative power being proposed and the fact that Police Unions will have even more power – Who really thinks this is a good idea? Oh yes, the anarchists. The bills proposed look like an Anarchist dream.

 

HB4201 – Joint Committee to “investigate” police incidents.

For every incident, this pulls major law enforcement players from across the State of Oregon to investigate any incident of death or “qualifying” injury of a suspect.  On the surface, this does sound like a good idea.  The State Attorney General appoints a special investigator that can not be part of the department of the Officer(s) who had the incident against a suspect.  This part really does not sound too bad.  Though the power of the “Special Investigator,” an appointee is equal to that of a District Attorney. an elected position. This bypasses the ability for the public to have sway over who represents us.  People want a “democracy” and yet we elect officials who work to take our vote away.  It would have been better if the “Special Investigator” had to work with the District Attorney. Then at least “We the People” would be represented. But the legislature had to complicate things… A lot!   

This bill also establishes a “deadly physical force planning authority” that has the following members – The local Sheriff and the District Attorney of the jurisdiction where the incident occurred. Not office representatives of these parties, but the actual officeholder.  Also, a Peace Officer who should be (if available) a designated Union representative. One of the Police Chiefs In that county,  A “Public Representative” selected by the DA and The Sheriff, a member of the Oregon State Police, selected by the Superintendent of State Police. A tribal Law enforcement officer if desired by any tribes in the county.

That means every incident will be examined by not only the “Special Investigator”, but also the DA, Sherriff, a peace officer (Probably a Union Representative), a civilian, A state police officer for a total of 5 plus if needed a tribal enforcement officer.  Why the Special Investigator, The District Attorney, and if needed the local Grand Jury is not enough, I am not sure.  We are adding yet another layer that will cause more delays.  If an Officer is found justified, as will probably be the case in most incidents, we have just added several weeks to the resolution, for no real benefit. 

This is another crack for things to fall through, and your legislators are making it happen on purpose. 

SB1604 – Gives Unions more power in disciplinary hearings and arbitration.

This bill essentially means the Peace Officers unions can dictate what punishments are given to Police Officers.  When wrongdoing is seen by both the Police Department and the Union in arbitration.  This may have started as a way to keep officers from some form of double jeopardy, but the end result is that officer discipline is negotiated as part of the Union Deal.  That is what enabled Office Chauvin to abuse George Floyd.  If Officer Chauvin had been eliminated from the force after his previous repeated infractions, Mr. Floyd may be alive (Note; Floyd Autopsies).

To me, it seems the unions are part of the problem.  Officers need the legal protections a union offers.  That is true.  But as public employees, the better solution may be private legal counsel. Maybe there should be legal associations available to the Officers like USCCA  but for police.  Allowing them affordable council.  How much are Police dues, and do they get their money’s worth?  Collective bargaining for public employees has its own problems, raising the cost to “We the People.” Just look at Cal-PERS or any state where unions run everything.

HB4204 and HB4208 – No more Choke holds under any circumstances and no more non-lethal crowd control methods (Tear Gas and Sound Cannons).

I am grouping these two bills because they both have to do with non-lethal force.  The unintended consequences of this will be MORE deaths. Not fewer. 

Let that sink in for a second. Taking away non-lethal tools? That means the officers will need to accelerate to the use of lethal force.  It is a simple equation. 

When dealing with a crowd, the inability to use tear gas and sound will necessitate the use of clubs, rubber bullets and probably shotguns.  Or we let the crowds rampage.  How has that worked for Portland, Seattle, Minneapolis and New York City?

The death of George Floyd was tragic, but it was the abuse of the officer, not a chokehold or tear gas that killed him.  And I’m, sorry Sonic Cannons are a great way to disperse a violent group of people.  By reducing the number of choices you increase the odds for the legitimate need for lethal force.  It is that simple.  The law o unintended consequences.

Conclusion:

The police in the state of Oregon are generally well trained and professional.  The number of incidents in our state, per capita, are lower than most. 

What has happened in places that have tightened the cuffs on officers? New York and other cities “defunding” the police have crime skyrocketing.  Our police are Nobel people trying to do a job professionally.  The Women and men of law enforcement deserve our support, not our scorn. 

We have a chance to vote in November.  To find representatives that will solve the problem instead of reacting, badly to every whim. 

 

In November Vote for Freedom. Supporting the anarchists can only bring terror and fear.  Deimos and Phobos, the Children of Mars, God of War.  There was a meme going around of the State Farm commercial Character “Mayhem” (Played by Dean Winters) as "Person of the Year." Not something to be proud of. The best way to stop Mayhem is not to invite it in. 

I am considering a Run for the Oregon House Seat 29 In Hillsboro Oregon. 

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

Crunching the Numbers – The Safety Third Idea

We hear about the “New Normal”, I have even talked about this in previous posts.  But I mean something different.  I don’t mean the drastic changes society “must” make to survive this.  I mean the risk management to get back to what normal always returns to. We talk about this technological age, and “how different” things are now than 2000 years ago.  But is it really?  Sure we can circle the globe in hours literally, in less than an hour in orbit, everything has the same purpose, we are just better at it.

The wheel brought the engine that brought the airplane.  In the end it boils down to getting places to gather food, provide shelter, and reproduce.  We earn money to gather food and purchase shelter.  But the essentials are the same. They have gathered food, made families, and sought to improve their current station.  Every change to society, including the 1791 “Great Experiment,” was to define or support “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.” 

There are very scary numbers regarding our current pandemic. If you look at just the total numbers, it is frightening. But you don’t live your life based on that kind of information. If you only looked at “total numbers,” we would not have 5-gallon buckets (Kills more children 5 and under than anything else), Drive or ride in a car (38,800 killed in 2019), or stay at home.  In the United States (2018 numbers) 49 people out of every 100k die from “unintentional accidents” (this includes car accidents). In Oregon 2.9 out 100k have died so far from CV19.  I wish I could guarantee your safety at home, but to be honest, you are at risk staying at home. 

The Numbers are scary!

Is it really?  There are a few things about the numbers we must acknowledge.  

1. Many to the “Confirmed cases” are diagnosed by fever, inability to smell, or respiratory distress.  The number of diseases that present with these symptoms is amazing. Including one corona type virus, we have been fighting forever, the common cold.

2. Of the People told to take a test because they are symptomatic, only 35% test positive.  

3. We know people who tested positive, died of other diseases (Cancer, heart failure, etc) has been counted as CV19 deaths.   (April 7th Dr. Brix at the CV19 Task Force Press Conference).  There is no doubt that people who died from other issues are being counted as CV19 Death.

We can’t know the true numbers until we have reliable tests for antibodies as well as the diseases itself, as well as every person is tested live or has an autopsy.  That is not happening. It is not possible.

Our current numbers US/Oregon:

US Population (est.): 329,000,000 >>(See Notes)
*Confirmed Cases: 1,611,297 (Increase of 161,161 over May 15th numbers)
Total Deaths: 95,213 (an increase of 8,606 over May 15th numbers)
**Total Recovered: 308,625
Death Rate: 5.91% (unadjusted numbers)

About Oregon?

Oregon Population (est.): 4,180,000
*Confirmed Cases: 3,817 (Increase of 338 over May 15th numbers)
Total Deaths: 145 (an increase of 8 over May 15th h numbers)
**Total Recovered: Unreported by Oregon
Death Rate: 3.70% unadjusted numbers, that is 35.71% below the national average))

In the last week, Oregon cases have slowed to a crawl. More people are getting tested, and the rate of increase is slowing every week. I keep hearing Mayor Cuomo if New York City touting the “Even if it saves just one life” line. Yet that is a marketing fallacy.  This was never about saving individual lives, because this kind of restriction can’t save lives it can only reduce the risk.  Then the question is when is the prevention worse than the disease. 

Safety third:

Mike Rowe has often talked about “safety third” and has espoused on this theme in several interviews and blog posts (Mike Rowe – “Walk me through this “Safety Third Thing”).  

We now know, because China did not acknowledge the early stages of the epidemic there, it turned in to a pandemic.  Because China restricted travel inside the country but not only allowed but encouraged foreigners to leave, without testing or notifying the destination countries of the risk, we have a pandemic.   There is evidence that New York, California, and Washington state have been fighting this since 2019.  All of our “authoritative models” have been wrong. Not by just a little.  

It is time for Oregon to open.  Washington County, where I live) is considered one of the Oregon “Hot Spots” but it has only one 5th of the cases in Oregon.  Washington County has about one 5th of the population of the state. So it is not “overly infected” really. It just has one of the most densely populated counties. Imagine that!

We should be realistic about what we are doing.  If you are high risk, maybe sequester is the right choice.  As for me – I will not offer my hand out of respect for your distance.  But I should have a shirt or hat made that says “Will Hug or handshake on request.”

It’s time. 

Notes:

* - Tested or diagnosed through clinical means.
** - Tested free of CV19 twice over 2 weeks, after diagnosed as positive. 
>> Dropped down to be consistent with the US news media, though this estimate is 2 years old and does not include unregistered persons.  The 2020 census should clear this up.

Breaking news – The NIH funded the Wuhan Viral institute’s research in to CV19

Dateline YouTube 9:30 PM Pacific time.

Before Bed tonight I watched “Verdict with Ted Cruze” on You Tube.  Ted apparently reads my blog.  But the most interesting thing is that the US National Institute of Health (AKA NIH) spent &73,301 in research to the Wuhan Virology Research Institute on Corona Viruses from Bats, and the impact on human biology. Why we would send this money all over the world (about $3.7M+ dollars world-wide) in research is beyond me.  Apparently, part of the research was on human fetal samples. So Human experimentation.

 Source:

So here we are with a global pandemic at least partially funded by the United States.  Guess what gang, let us do the research here, at least them we can be responsible for the results.  Good or bad.

This was corroborated by the UK Daily Mail in an article on April 11th, 2020.

Not that funding medical research is a bad thing.  But given the history of China and other research facilities, maybe this was a bad idea.  According to toe Congressman Matt Gaetz, this is not new activity.

Do we ever know where your money goes? 

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

Crunch time – More encouraging news from the numbers-04/17/2020

The Changes:

This is week 4 of this string of articles. A lot has changed in the last week. Germany took a whole town, and tested 80% of the population, regardless of symptoms. Trying to estimate what percentage of the population was infected. They cam up with about 15%. Test results in NYC - Women who were pregnant and came in to deliver children, were tested (220 of them) and 15% of them. Tested positive for CV19. Most seemed to be asymptomatic.

What does this mean?

 It shows that the mathematical model I’ve been using is close to correct. Sadly it is the worst-case estimate that was a little low. Instead of a ratio of 1 to 100 of known infected vs actual infected, it is 1 to 110. This means for every confirmed/Diagnosed case, there are 110 more people out there who are asymptomatic or who had such mild cases no diagnoses nor testing occurred. In my historical calculations, I changed that exposure estimate.

That means as of today we are running about 23% of the population seems having been exposed. The reasons for this are more have been tested. We have tested almost 2% of the population. There is a new test available in the next 2 weeks that takes minutes vs days. It is a less invasive nasal swab. So it is more comfortable and can be performed in Drive through or the Doctor Office. This too is good news. People tested are still 65% negative. So even though symptomatic they have common influenza or rhinovirus vs CoVid-19.

The numbers are so encouraging.

•  US Population (est.): 329,000,000 >>(See Notes)
• +Estimated exposed to the Virus: 75.68M
• (Estimated Percent of National Population 23.0%)
• *Confirmed Cases: 688,019 (Increase of 218,515)
• Total Deaths: 35,907 (increase of 17,916) 
• **Total Recovered: 56,177 (Corrected, some how an extra zero was posted earlier.)

This is all leveling off and the number of new deaths is decreasing. Even with New York City adding 3,700 deaths because they had died in their homes and had not been counted. These 3,700 people were never tested but were assumed to have CV19, they had coughs and fever. Is it worth going back and testing mem? Maybe, 3700 was 17% of the US deaths at the time. So that is a large increase.

What is so good about this? 

The infection rate is slowing. More people have been tested but the rate of increase has dropped. The death rate has dropped a ton with the revised estimate of the infected to 0.043% of infected at risk of dying. Most places have access to PPE and many US factories have re-tooled to supply that stuff, instead of relying on imports. Again showing the flexibility of an almost free market.

There are treatments that are working!

Hydroxychloroquine (HyC for short) is being tested in South Dakota in studies to determine if it is a cure. There is a tone of anecdotal evidence that combining it with other things, does seem to have a very high success rate. This is a prime example of why you do not want to think like a News Media Schill.

Often it is said that HyC is not listed as a cure. Of course not, CV19 is a novel virus, one that has not been studied, except in a few places. And no cure had been found there. The idea of a “novel” virus is not that it is well-read, but that it is unique. Though most folks agree it is similar to SARS (SARS-CoV) hence it is officially SARS-CoV 2 in the lab rat world.

So what is your risk where 23% of the people have been exposed? (based on moderately conservative estimates)

Note the death rate went from 0.37% to 0.047%, even with NYC adjustment. At 0.37% you had a 1 in 292 chance of dying. Now your chance is down to 1 in 2,128.

Does that mean if you leave your house 2,128 times you will get the virus and die? No. Remember there is a “New Deck”, to use a gambler phrase, every time you leave the house. The cards are shuffled when you leave the door.

So when is it safe enough?

Now for most people. The financial costs aside, there is a manufacturing shortage coming unless we get back outside and do our stuff. This is true for a small and large business. There are food plants shutting down and farmers destroying crops they can’t sell because we can’t process that food. Right now, we have time to catch up. But in 4 weeks, we will start seeing shortages. Those shortages can cause death too. Again, there is the question of “Does it matter how you die?” If you are a socialist, it does. Because if you die from a bullet, you are venerated as a “gun death” if you die from a knife or beating, well then you are just a crime statistic. If you die from a lack of medicine or starve, that is OK because you did not die “from CV19!”

So is it good news?

Yes! Your odds of survival just jumped up by some 600%. That huge change is due to the larger testing data.

Define safe? That is an individual decision. But the point of a free society is you do get to choose. At what point do we stop living in fear and go out and have a life? As of now your odds of dying from CoVid-19 are lower than the top 12 most common causes of death in the United States. That is down from 3rd most common last week.

Every time you open your eyes you put yourself at risk. According to the National Safety Council, if you go outside, 1 of 114 times you will die from a “Motor Vehicle Crash.” Whenever you eat you will choke on your food 1 out of 3,461 meals. Yet you still eat every day. If you choose to go outside, it is probably still a good idea to practice your personal space thing. Wearing a mask may make others feel better and reduce your chances from 1 in 2, 128 to about 1 in 3, 093.

Can restaurants help be reducing tables in their dining room? Would you go to a restaurant and eat if they advertised a 6-foot clearance between usable booths and tables? Thes kind of thing is how we define our new normal. But a restaurant will have trouble making profits if the table count is cut by 50-70 percent.

Governor Brown let’s get back to life.

Notes:

* - Tested or diagnosed through clinical means.
** - Tested free of CV19 twice over 2 weeks, after diagnosed as positive.
+ - Estimate of infected based on the idea that only 10% of the total infected have been confirmed.
 >> - Dropped down to be consistent with the US news media, though this estimate is 2 years old and does not include unregistered persons. The 2020 census should clear this up.

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

By Order of the Queen Governor of Oregon – Your Dining Hall is now confiscated.

The Issue:

Can the government (State or Federal) close services by private companies for an indeterminate amount of time? Not in Oregon! When does public safety trump personal freedom? It should not. Yet here we are. Forced isolation – When does Sequester/Quarantine become worse than the disease?  Let’s take a look!

Is what you die from this important?

Economy and mental health seem to be snakes swallowing each other. When people are happy the economy is strong, when the economy goes down, mental health suffers.  Last year in Oregon there were 844 suicides.  That is an average of 70 a month.  Every month.  As of April 13th, 2020 Oregon has lost 52 people. 4 In the last 24 hours.

Now that is terrible.  But what are the odds of suicide has increased over the last month of quarantine?  I have asked the Oregon Department of health for the 2020 statistics by month.  But they have not had time to supply those yet.  Oddly I have found no reliable monthly tally of that information. I will end up doing a blog on mental health in the future when I have facts to provide.

Governor Brown has signed 15 Executive Orders (EO) as of the date of this writing (04/13/2020).  Most of them for set amounts of time.  EO20-06 Specified that the restaurant dining room and facilities be closed for 30 days. On April 7th, Governor Brown extended that order, in its entirety for an indefinite period.

It seems to me this is a bad idea for many reasons.  Do we need to continue to distance ourselves and wash hands?  Sure.  If somebody has health issues should they remain sequestered? That would be reasonable.  But if we don’t start looking at how to safely navigate a world full of pandemics waiting to happen, the better.

The Promises:

The hope of a vaccine or cure is good but a vacant promise.  When HIV was first discovered in the population, it was promised but never found.  HIV First made an appearance in 1968.  During the 1970’s it was considered a pandemic (it still is) and billions have been poured into its cure.  We do have reliable tests, but no vaccine nor anything resembling a cure.  Sure we can prolong the life span of the infected.  But it can’t be cured.  So even science can’t deliver on these kinds of promises.

Welcome to the new reality. 

So what next?

Oregon has this covered.  There is no law to change, it just needs to be applied.  If the State confiscates property, they must compensate the citizen or company.  It seems that Governor Kate Brown has stolen your facilities if you are a dine/Drink- in a facility. If I were you, I’d send the state an invoice for renting out your service areas for March 17th to April 21st.

Oregon Statute(ORS) 433.441(5-6):
(5) A proclamation of a state of public health emergency expires when terminated by a declaration of the Governor or no more than 14 days after the date the public health emergency is proclaimed unless the Governor expressly extends the proclamation for an additional 14-day period.

(6) When real or personal property is taken under power granted by this section, the owner of the property shall be entitled to reasonable compensation from the state. [2003 c.555 §1; 2007 c.445 §23; 2013 c.332 §3]

It seems to me, that specifically for a health emergency, the Governor can not set these emergency powers for more than 14 days. It also seems to me, by declaring dining rooms off-limits, and making no state effort to decontaminate or re-open them, she is “Taking possession of” the dining areas.

If I were a lawyer, and I am not, I would see if there is a class action suit just waiting to happen.

I am not interested in breaking the quarantine, not because I am afraid of the state, but if I spread this to somebody else, I would be very unhappy.  It is the uncertainty that causes stress because I don’t know if I have it.  So maybe staying quarantined until we do have at least an antibody test if you are at risk, is a good idea.  There are no guarantees, people in their 20s have died from this.  And some did not seem to have any co-morbidities. But the odds at this point are 0.338 to 100. Or if you want a sensational number 296 to 1 of contracting SARS-CoVid 2(CoVid-19, CV19).

You have to decide if it worth the risk.  But in a free country or state, it should be your choice.

Notes:

* Not signed by the Secretary of State – Bev Clamo.
A full list of Executive orders 2003 to Present. Downloadable PDF of the signed orders.

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

A Change in Culture - Changing Normalcy.

Changing culture can either be easy or hard. The sad thing is it is a personal choice, not a societal issue. We are forcing a culture change in the United States right now. It is because of how we are handling the current pandemic crisis. Suicide hotlines are up over 300 percent. Other help groups are seeing a boom in things. As a 12 step practitioner myself, I am seeing a baseline cultural change in how we do things. But there is hope.

These changes are neither bad nor good. But they could be awful if we define normal the way we used to. That is the part we seem to have lost from the “Greatest Generation” who acted selflessly, in fighting the Axis Powers. Accepting reality is why they went to fight. If we did not defeat the Axis Powers, everybody knew they would be here, eventually.

I have to be amazed at what happened in the first part of the 20th century. People were in two camps on the idea of flying, it was not possible, or it was 50 years in the future. Then there was Kittyhawk and the Wright brother. In the 30 years between Kittyhawk (1903), and 1933, when Adolf Hitler was just getting off the ground, we went from first flight to the founding of PanAm Airlines in 1927. From there to landing on the moon in 1969. In 63 years we went from zero to hero. Now we have more changes to deal with. And again the secret is to accept what is true, and move forward.

This is not even the first major Pandemic, since the flight of the Wright Brothers. What became known as the “Spanish Flu” (the first case seems to have been in Alabama in 1917). We fought a war, and that pandemic may have even helped shorten that war, though it killed more people than the war did. Again they accepted what is and dealt with where to go from here.

Do we continue the quarantine?

That may the wrong question, the right question maybe can we continue? At what point does the prevention become worse than the disease? If we continue with this, what will happen? Well, the food will get short. Governors are telling farmers, ranchers, dairies, and slaughterhouses to close down. Even though we have trucks to haul the food, thank your local truck driver, there may come a point when there is nothing to load on the truck. So we could be in a situation with a food shortage caused by the government.

People are living in fear of getting a disease, which is for now unlikely. That may change. But despite the week ending April 11th, being one fo the deadliest in the United States for CV19, there is hope. The overall spread is decreasing in speed.

How do I live like this?

You don’t. You live the way you need to now, not the way you did in the past. The new reality lifestyle is waiting to be defined. But can you accept that? Acceptance is NOT the solution to all your problems, it is the first step in finding a solution. So f you accept the new reality the next choice is yours. Factories are re-tooling to make Personal Protection Equipment (PPE) for medical personal. It is time for me to re-tool myself for the new reality.

Where to start? How about if you S.P.E.A.K.?

SPEAK is an acronym for steps to go through when considering your day. There is a video here about it, presented by Verve Counseling LLC. Sara is an LCSW.

The idea being if you configure a structure around your life, you can have a better life. It does need to be in the confines of current reality. So can you find a job you can do, that will keep you as safe as possible? Sadly staying at home is not even a guarantee of health. Besides the health risks of being inside all the time, it is not reality. But if you have lost your job, can you find or even better create one that you can do with a limited risk of exposure.

We do need to think about limiting exposure. You can not eliminate it. People are getting sick with no discernable path to infection. Nobody they know has it. They have been home for two or three weeks, and only had limited contact with the outside world. So they “did everything right” and still ended up exposed.

So try building your SPEAK Model Structure in your life. See if you can’t bust out of that box. There is a possibility this may be our “armistice” year. But more about that next week.

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

It’s Crunch time! – The numbers and what they really mean. 04/03/2020

Last Friday I sent up charts and data to the internet to try to show how small your personal risk really is.  Not to bash anybody, but to praise our amazing cooperative work.  Here is an update that personally I find encouraging.

Again we hear the terrible numbers of the toll of this virus, but because we look at the microcosm of the numbers, we do not understand the actual risk to us individually.  Though I am not saying we should yell and scream and run around hugging each other.  Getting outside and doing our lives as close to normal as is prudent, might not be a bad way to go. 

In 2009 we had the H1N1pdn09 pandemic.  We did not shut down the world and we only quarantined the infected. SARS-CoV 2 (CoVid-19 0r C19) is far more contagious.  So it appears, but it is also far less lethal.

The Numbers (04/03/2020)

US Population (est): 348,860,000
Estimated exposed to the Virus: 2.695M – 26.955M
(Percent of National Population 0.077%-0.775%)

Confirmed Cases: 269,557
Total Deaths:       6,907
Total Recovered: 12,015

Estimated odds of you contacting an exposed person between .077% - 0.776%
That means if you were at a used car lot with 1000 cars, and the worst case is it would be 8 of those 1000 cars are lemons.  So 992 of those 1000 cars are good. Or if you had $10 in pennies, eight of those “pennies” were actually pesos.

In more simple terms, out of 125 people you come in contact with, 1 of them will have been exposed to CV19.  This is not to be ignored.  But the reality is that you are relatively safe.

Should you use some sort of mask to reduce the risk?  Sure. Yet do not ignore the cost of being idle. Addicts will fall of their respective wagon.  People are not being taken to hospitals in NYC. If Paramedics find a person on the floor without a heartbeat, due to heart attack, they are not even to bother transporting victims to the hospital, unless they can restart the heart.  In the past, they would be transported to the hospital while being sustained by CPR.  Many of these people can recover.  Now they are not being given the chance. So where do you draw the “save one life” logic?

What does 1 in 125 looks like?

1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111X111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111

Being over cautious can be just as damaging as a slow reaction.

Be safe, be cautious but continue to live a life.  Shutting your life down can have long-term effects on you and your circle.

Notes:

* tested or diagnosed through clinical means.
** Tested free of CV19 twice over a 2 week period, after diagnosed as positive.
+ Estimate of infected based on the idea that only 10% of the total infected have been confirmed.
All sourced from the CDC.  

Adapt and Overcome – the Oldest Survival skill

The news is dismal, but so much is perspective.  One life lost is too many, yet this is not the first, nor will it be the last pandemic we will ever deal with as a species.  They will be terrible, if for no other reason than our ability to travel.  Infections can literally travel the globe in hours.  So how do you keep from giving up?  If you put these horrendous numbers in perspective.  In all honesty by the time you read this thing will have changed.  But pulling back and looking at the big picture may help you mentally. That is the hope of this writing.

 How do you “Adapt and Overcome?”, Remember it is not all bad news.  The reality is much better than the reporting.

“Adapt and Overcome” is a term used by many in the armed services, especially our elite fighting units.  They are trained to see a situation and to change the plans as needed to get the final result.

It sounds very cool, and boy I wish I could do that!  Well, you can and you have.  Based on the fact you are reading or listening to this, that is proof that at some point in your life, you choose to adapt and overcome. At the time it may have been called learning to read or learning computer skills, but it was adaptation leading to overcoming some obstacle.

American and European society has forgotten this.  What proof do I have?  Toilet paper ladies and gentlemen!  The complete lack of TP due to hoarding is proof that we are losing the basic survival skill of adaption. 

Of all the things to horde, why Toilet Paper?  Toilet paper was not invented and marketed until 1857.  The roll as we now know it did not come into existence until 1883.  Given that history, how necessary is it in reality?  When it comes to survival it’s not.  But it is a nice convenience. Yet that is still lacking on the shelves, Many retailers are rationing it to one package per customer.

If you are struggling emotionally during this sequester, what is the root cause? Your lack of adaption.

If you are unable to work and are not getting paid, that is a concern. I Love the fact that in the “Recovery Package” Congress passed the New York Symphony $25 million.  As soon as that was announced, they dismissed all of the orchestras.  What was that money for?  If I were in congress, I’d submit a bill that, unless they hired and paid their orchestra, they would have to repay the $25M with interest. The NY Symphony is not dealing with reality.  They may not overcome because they refuse to adapt. 

One of the things in listening to the news, it sounds so hopeless.  But we see only a tiny portion of the picture.  We hear how many people are infected.  And we can’t stop thinking about it.

US Cases per the CDC (as of 03/30/2020)

• Infected: 140,904  Deaths 2,405
• This is a horrible number.  That is too many deaths.  So all people think about is dying.  But what are the odds in reality?
• Now, these odds will change over time. They honestly have almost doubled since Friday (03/27/2020) because the number of cases almost doubled.  But we will talk about that later.

But first the math!

We know for a fact that the number of cases is not accurate.  That number in the US is obtained by 2 major factors.

1.    Those diagnosed with the CV19- This does not mean you have been tested.  It means these people have contacted their doctor, and been diagnosed with SARS-CoV 2 (CoVid-19 or CV19).  I have found no indication that people who have this point recovered, and there have been recoveries, are removed from this number.  So let us assume this number is moderately accurate. 

2.    Those who have tested and found to be positive for CV19.  This number is growing rapidly and will continue to grow.  At least for a while.  More testing is being done.  But that is truly not bad news.  As testing becomes more prevalent, we as a country can move from sequestering everybody, then quarantine those who have the disease.

Now for the encouragement.  (Stay with me)

About the number: If we assume that for every person that we know has the virus, 10 to 100 others have been at least exposed if not contracted it.

What is good about that?

It is only between 0.43% -4.29 % of the US population has been exposed, much less contracted. Is this a guess?  Sure, but an educated one. 

In more good news, the number of people that when tested are positive for CV19 is about 35%. So that means 65% or those tested are negative.  Again good news.

So the odds in a nutshell –

Worst case there is currently 4.29 percent of the US population who have been exposed.  So you have a 94% chance of meeting healthy people out there.  This is not to say we should go to a mosh pit or the like.

If you have sequestered yourself as requested, and have limited your odds of exposer over the last 2 weeks, you are probably either immune, many people are, or you have not been exposed. So until treatment is approved or a vaccine is made available, we are doing the right thing. 

More good news:

Per the CDC, there are 600 treatments and 300 vaccines in trials for CV19. There have been promising known medications that have worked.  Treatment is coming.  We just need to be patient.  Getting out to the moshpit too soon will ruin all of our hard work. 

For those of us working from home, I hope you like it.  This has forced companies to figure out how to allow for telecommuting.  On average it costs a company bout $1100 a month to provide you with desk/office space.  Maybe a little less for the cubical city.  Due to people staying home, Los Angles and other smog-ridden cities are seeing blue skies for the first time in a long time.  So if you can work from home, keep your job and cut out transportation time and cost, would that not be a good thing?

For those who lost jobs due to this, I hope that you can find work again.  It may require a new mindset from ourselves.  But that again is “Adapt and Overcome” at work.

The odds of you getting sick right now are slim, but not zero. If you are an at-risk person, extra caution beyond the current April 30^th mark may be needed.  But the reality is, by next year we will have treatments and vaccines approved. We are learning how to deal with pandemics in the modern world. 

In 2009, we had an H1N1 Pandemic.  The US Government did nothing until after 1000 people died, then they used up all the stockpiles and never replaced them.  We have been moving much faster this time.  We learned from our mistakes.  Nobody would say we have been perfect. Yet we are learning to be flexible. 

Companies like Nike, GM and others are producing N95 rated masks.  I just found out a local distillery here in Portland is making hand sanitizer specifically for hospitals and first responders. So a bad time to be an alcoholic, of course, is there a good time?

It is a good thing for a species to be nimble, that can adapt.  Those that do not go extinct.  It is a natural order of things. 

So can you see the reality through the trees?

Can you adapt and overcome?

Of course, you can, you learned how to walk, eat read and so many other things.  It is a matter of seeing what is real and important.  And doing that.  Oddly enough toilet paper is not important.  It is nice, but not important.  Your neighbor, friends, and social entanglements help you adapt.  If they don’t, then find ones that do.

You can overcome.

“Bless them which persecute you: bless, and curse not. Rejoice with them that do rejoice, and weep with them that weep. Be of the same mind one toward another. Mind not high things, but condescend to men of low estate. Be not wise in your own conceits. Recompense to no man evil for evil. Provide things honest in the sight of all men.

If it be possible, as much as lieth in you, live peaceably with all men. Dearly beloved, avenge not yourselves, but rather give place unto wrath: for it is written, Vengeance is mine; I will repay, saith the Lord.
Therefore if thine enemy hunger, feed him; if he thirst, give him drink: for in so doing thou shalt heap coals of fire on his head. Be not overcome of evil, but overcome evil with good.”

Romans 12: 14-21 (KJV)

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.