Crunching The New Numbers: It is Shocking! Does quarantine cause infection?

My apologies for not keeping up with this.  My computer died and it took a little while to get a new set up tweaked in.  Plus it looked like things were going to open, then they didn’t. 

In statistics recently released in New York City, 66% of new cases came from homes that were following the quarantine.  In Florida and Georgie, 2 states that bucked the trend and opened up a few weeks ago, both saw a 10-12 percent reduction in new cases.  Reports now 3 months after the fact, prove that the Wisconsin Primary Election held in February (Super Tuesday), did not cause any spike in the numbers.

 

But this is about real numbers.  So let’s see what we have learned in the last month.

 

3 studies that I know about, one in Germany, Fresno California, and New York City  New York, sampled a few thousand people who were asymptomatic for the virus.  These were not antibody studies.  These were simply people that were tested for CoVid-19 (CV19) out of hand.  In New York, it was Pregnant Women who came in to give birth.  In Fresno, It was people asking to be tested for sanity or work-related testing of healthy people.  In Germany, they tested 80% of a town. 

The results, though a small sample size (2-8 thousand tests in each case), showed 15% of the subjects were positive, though asymptomatic.  If that holds, Oregon can expect that some 632,700 people are currently or have been infected.  In the United States, 15% of 328.1 Million People are 49.22 Million people. I know this number is wrong because the infection rate n some areas are far lower than 15%. The less densely populated areas will have a lower rate because infections travel slower. 

The Numbers are still encouraging

US Population (est.): 329,000,000 >>(See Notes)
+Estimated exposed to the Virus: 262.475M
(Estimated Percent of National Population exposed 79.8%)
*Confirmed Cases: 1,450,136 (Increase of 218,515 over April 17^th numbers)
Total Deaths:           86,607 (an increase of 50.700 over April 17^th numbers)
**Total Recovered: 253,279
Death Rate: 0.552%, Based on the estimated total exposed. (5.97% unadjusted numbers)

So what about Oregon?

Oregon Population (est.): 4,180,000
+Estimated exposed/recovered to the Virus: 629,699
(Estimated Percent of State Population 15.06%)
*Confirmed Cases: 3,479 (Increase of 1,328 over April 17^th numbers)
Total Deaths:           137 (an increase of 73 over April 17^th numbers)
**Total Recovered: Unreported by Oregon
Death Rate: 0.083%, Based on the estimated total exposed. (3.9% unadjusted numbers, that is 33% below the national average))

What does this mean?

Of all states, Oregon is probably one of the safest.  Even despite the initial push of numbers. Against the national average, we are far better off than other places.  So why are we still forcing businesses to close? The unintended consequences can be just as bad as the disease.

The point of the sequester was to keep from overwhelming the hospitals.  It was never about saving lives.  Sadly these things must run their course.  It is natural.  It is what happens.  Keeping schools closed next year will keep parents home.  They will not be able to afford to go back to work.  Because of global food production decreases, because of the lockdown. The UN World FoodProgram estimates 265 million people will starve directly due to reduced food production because of CV19.  In comparison, less than 0.114% of that number have died from CV19 globally.  As of May 17^th, 2020: 303,825 people have died from CV19.  Again the cure is worse than the disease.

So what’s next?

Well, we can either keep going, destroy the local economy or we can start learning to live with this pandemic just like every other one we have experienced.  Not the people who want to keep us under control have one tool.  That is fear.  It is all about “saving lives” is the big lie.  It was always about giving us time to prepare for the inevitable wave that is coming.  According to local news, we have months of PPE available for hospitals.  Ventilators,  that may do more harm than good,  as well as treatment options.  Hydrocholoquine has proven 90% effective.  There are other immune suppression methods used to great success in California.  I know that sounds weird, but it boils down to the idea that CV19 can cause a cascading immune response, and that is what kills the at-risk and weaker patients.

We NEED a Vaccine!

Some of the folks who tell you to “shelter in place,” say we need to develop a vaccine to develop “herd immunity.” As wonderful as that sounds, there has never been a vaccine developed for any corona type virus.  SARS CoV, the original SARS virus was discovered in 2002.  Since that time millions have been dumped into a vaccine and curative research.  Some treatments have come out of that, but not a vaccine. So should we look for one?  Sure we may get lucky.  But to count on it is insanity. 

On the flip side, if 15% of the population has already been exposed and fought off the disease,  we are that much closer to herd immunity.  Herd Immunity is calculated by computer models.  There are estimates of between 80% to 15% of the population would have had to been exposed to CV19, either fought it off or be inoculated, for us as a species to reach herd immunity.  A little known fact about “herd immunity” is that does not mean the virus disappears and nobody dies.  It means that enough people can fight it off to reduce the death rate. 

Again a vaccine should be researched.  And those that want it should take it.  Those that don’t shouldn’t be forced (yes I am libertarian). But the only way to guarantee an eventual return to normal life is for us to get out, and get exposed.   It is not that I want people to die, I am just pointing out we are not actually saving any lives by doing what we are doing.  In the long run, we will kill more people.  More of them children according to the United Nations.

Go outside, get some sun.  Say hello to people.  You are more likely to die from a fall in your bathroom that in contracting a virus,l you may already have fought off.  Freedom is not without risk, but lockdown is just prison with Netflix or Disney+ and a comfortable couch.

Notes:

* - Tested or diagnosed through clinical means.
** - Tested free of CV19 twice over 2 weeks, after diagnosed as positive.
+ - Based on 15% of the population having asymptomatic response. See German, California, and New York Studies.   The math works out that each person exposes about 181 other people.  The previous calculation used 110 other people being exposed. 
>> Dropped down to be consistent with the US news media, though this estimate is 2 years old and does not include unregistered persons.  The 2020 census should clear this up.

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

Adapt and Overcome – the Oldest Survival skill

The news is dismal, but so much is perspective.  One life lost is too many, yet this is not the first, nor will it be the last pandemic we will ever deal with as a species.  They will be terrible, if for no other reason than our ability to travel.  Infections can literally travel the globe in hours.  So how do you keep from giving up?  If you put these horrendous numbers in perspective.  In all honesty by the time you read this thing will have changed.  But pulling back and looking at the big picture may help you mentally. That is the hope of this writing.

 How do you “Adapt and Overcome?”, Remember it is not all bad news.  The reality is much better than the reporting.

“Adapt and Overcome” is a term used by many in the armed services, especially our elite fighting units.  They are trained to see a situation and to change the plans as needed to get the final result.

It sounds very cool, and boy I wish I could do that!  Well, you can and you have.  Based on the fact you are reading or listening to this, that is proof that at some point in your life, you choose to adapt and overcome. At the time it may have been called learning to read or learning computer skills, but it was adaptation leading to overcoming some obstacle.

American and European society has forgotten this.  What proof do I have?  Toilet paper ladies and gentlemen!  The complete lack of TP due to hoarding is proof that we are losing the basic survival skill of adaption. 

Of all the things to horde, why Toilet Paper?  Toilet paper was not invented and marketed until 1857.  The roll as we now know it did not come into existence until 1883.  Given that history, how necessary is it in reality?  When it comes to survival it’s not.  But it is a nice convenience. Yet that is still lacking on the shelves, Many retailers are rationing it to one package per customer.

If you are struggling emotionally during this sequester, what is the root cause? Your lack of adaption.

If you are unable to work and are not getting paid, that is a concern. I Love the fact that in the “Recovery Package” Congress passed the New York Symphony $25 million.  As soon as that was announced, they dismissed all of the orchestras.  What was that money for?  If I were in congress, I’d submit a bill that, unless they hired and paid their orchestra, they would have to repay the $25M with interest. The NY Symphony is not dealing with reality.  They may not overcome because they refuse to adapt. 

One of the things in listening to the news, it sounds so hopeless.  But we see only a tiny portion of the picture.  We hear how many people are infected.  And we can’t stop thinking about it.

US Cases per the CDC (as of 03/30/2020)

• Infected: 140,904  Deaths 2,405
• This is a horrible number.  That is too many deaths.  So all people think about is dying.  But what are the odds in reality?
• Now, these odds will change over time. They honestly have almost doubled since Friday (03/27/2020) because the number of cases almost doubled.  But we will talk about that later.

But first the math!

We know for a fact that the number of cases is not accurate.  That number in the US is obtained by 2 major factors.

1.    Those diagnosed with the CV19- This does not mean you have been tested.  It means these people have contacted their doctor, and been diagnosed with SARS-CoV 2 (CoVid-19 or CV19).  I have found no indication that people who have this point recovered, and there have been recoveries, are removed from this number.  So let us assume this number is moderately accurate. 

2.    Those who have tested and found to be positive for CV19.  This number is growing rapidly and will continue to grow.  At least for a while.  More testing is being done.  But that is truly not bad news.  As testing becomes more prevalent, we as a country can move from sequestering everybody, then quarantine those who have the disease.

Now for the encouragement.  (Stay with me)

About the number: If we assume that for every person that we know has the virus, 10 to 100 others have been at least exposed if not contracted it.

What is good about that?

It is only between 0.43% -4.29 % of the US population has been exposed, much less contracted. Is this a guess?  Sure, but an educated one. 

In more good news, the number of people that when tested are positive for CV19 is about 35%. So that means 65% or those tested are negative.  Again good news.

So the odds in a nutshell –

Worst case there is currently 4.29 percent of the US population who have been exposed.  So you have a 94% chance of meeting healthy people out there.  This is not to say we should go to a mosh pit or the like.

If you have sequestered yourself as requested, and have limited your odds of exposer over the last 2 weeks, you are probably either immune, many people are, or you have not been exposed. So until treatment is approved or a vaccine is made available, we are doing the right thing. 

More good news:

Per the CDC, there are 600 treatments and 300 vaccines in trials for CV19. There have been promising known medications that have worked.  Treatment is coming.  We just need to be patient.  Getting out to the moshpit too soon will ruin all of our hard work. 

For those of us working from home, I hope you like it.  This has forced companies to figure out how to allow for telecommuting.  On average it costs a company bout $1100 a month to provide you with desk/office space.  Maybe a little less for the cubical city.  Due to people staying home, Los Angles and other smog-ridden cities are seeing blue skies for the first time in a long time.  So if you can work from home, keep your job and cut out transportation time and cost, would that not be a good thing?

For those who lost jobs due to this, I hope that you can find work again.  It may require a new mindset from ourselves.  But that again is “Adapt and Overcome” at work.

The odds of you getting sick right now are slim, but not zero. If you are an at-risk person, extra caution beyond the current April 30^th mark may be needed.  But the reality is, by next year we will have treatments and vaccines approved. We are learning how to deal with pandemics in the modern world. 

In 2009, we had an H1N1 Pandemic.  The US Government did nothing until after 1000 people died, then they used up all the stockpiles and never replaced them.  We have been moving much faster this time.  We learned from our mistakes.  Nobody would say we have been perfect. Yet we are learning to be flexible. 

Companies like Nike, GM and others are producing N95 rated masks.  I just found out a local distillery here in Portland is making hand sanitizer specifically for hospitals and first responders. So a bad time to be an alcoholic, of course, is there a good time?

It is a good thing for a species to be nimble, that can adapt.  Those that do not go extinct.  It is a natural order of things. 

So can you see the reality through the trees?

Can you adapt and overcome?

Of course, you can, you learned how to walk, eat read and so many other things.  It is a matter of seeing what is real and important.  And doing that.  Oddly enough toilet paper is not important.  It is nice, but not important.  Your neighbor, friends, and social entanglements help you adapt.  If they don’t, then find ones that do.

You can overcome.

“Bless them which persecute you: bless, and curse not. Rejoice with them that do rejoice, and weep with them that weep. Be of the same mind one toward another. Mind not high things, but condescend to men of low estate. Be not wise in your own conceits. Recompense to no man evil for evil. Provide things honest in the sight of all men.

If it be possible, as much as lieth in you, live peaceably with all men. Dearly beloved, avenge not yourselves, but rather give place unto wrath: for it is written, Vengeance is mine; I will repay, saith the Lord.
Therefore if thine enemy hunger, feed him; if he thirst, give him drink: for in so doing thou shalt heap coals of fire on his head. Be not overcome of evil, but overcome evil with good.”

Romans 12: 14-21 (KJV)

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

Regarding Diet – In realty TV?

I Don’t like reality TV.  Survivor and other such games pit people against each other in an effort to subvert, confuse and remove people from the show. What makes “My Diet is Better Than your” different?  It’s not about the contestants really, it’s about the results for the contestants.  The show determines this week’s winner by who has lost a larger percentage of body weight.  The concept of percentage is important.  It’s like a golf handicap.  A 230-pound woman would have a lot of trouble losing 15 pounds in one week.  But to a 365-pound man, that is only 4.1%.  For the 230-pound woman that same 4.1% is 9.45 pounds. So it evens the field based on what each person’s condition. Still a lot of weight, but to a severely obese person, that is a safe amount. They have fitness challenges they have to meet.  Part of the competition is these folks will have to complete a half marathon at the end of the season.  These fitness challenges are mini-tests to make sure they will be physically capable of completing that event safely.  The contestants are medically monitored every week to be sure that they are not starving themselves.  Some have already seen great reduction in glucose levels.  Blood pressure, BMI and other easements are taken to ensure all is done in a healthy manner.

This relatively new “Reality” series on ABC is actually worth watching if you’re interested in changing your eating habits. Though in no way is what they are doing scientific, it is truly a competition between life style choices. There is nothing real in this “reality”.  We have 5 contestants who are from a broad spectrum of society.  I’m not sure what most of them do, because it’s not important to the show. At least 3 of them have fulltime jobs, one may be a homemaker with a child.  The others have not chosen to share what they do so I’ll leave that off.

The concept is simple, and it’s centered around the programs the contestants chose. Here are the life-style plans in the same order presented on ABC’s Website for My Diet is better than Yours:

• The Wellness Smackdown: A Vegan diet, in both content and philosophy.  Strictly vegan no dairy Includes meditation as well as moderate exercise. – Jovanka Ciares
• The “No Diet Plan”: A Thought/Lifestyle approach to fitness.  Not so much about the food in particular but more about learning the better choices and making them.  Uses all sorts of tools including using blue colored plates because that is unappetizing, purple bed sheets to sleep better and putting on red clothing to motivate yourself to work out harder. – Jay Cardiello
• Super Food Swap: The idea is to eat what you want, but healthier.  Making Mac and Cheese with Whole Grain Pasta and a cheese and cauliflower sauce reducing the calories. Exercise moderately.  – Dawn Jackson-Blatner
• The cLEAN MOMMA(sic) Plan: Focuses on getting exercise all the time.  Coining the term “Taskercise” because every action can be turned in to an exercise routine, and eating healthier. Less about restrictive eating than focusing on better choices. Carolyn Barnes
• The Wild Diet: Eat good organic and wild fed food.  Grain fed beef, wild fish, range free fowl.  Organic vegetables. The concept is based more on hunter-gatherer eating.  Exercise in short intense intervals, preferably outside in the sun, because sun is a nutrient too.  Drink your coffee, that’s OK - Do you like butter with that coffee? (I know I do) Don’t knock it ‘till you’ve tried it.  Generally, a low carb diet, but depending on your genetics you may need a little more carb, women do need more than carbs than men. – Able James Companion Book The Wild Diet
• Strong, Safe and Sexy: A pescatarian (fish eater) food plan. Small amounts of dairy and eggs, if wild fed, are allowed.  But only wild caught aquatic/non-mammal creatures, sorry if you were looking for seal, otter and cetacean meat.  As with all of the coaches, this is based on a life-style change. – Jennifer Cassetta

So why am I writing this? It seems important to me to bring out good lifestyle plans. As many of you know I am morbidly obese.  Using the steps of Overeaters Anonymous and through a food plan, that I found out was very similar to the Wild Diet, I’ve lost 151 pounds.  I’ve not weight myself in a while.  So until I do, that is the last known true weight.  One of the joys of my new life is that food is no longer the obsession it used to be.  Eating bad food between meals has become a thing of the past.

There are a few good things about the show.

1. All of the coaches are promoting a lifestyle change, not a weight loss method.  Even though the show tracks percentage of weight lost as a major criterion, everybody on the show is constantly reminding the contestants, they are not on a diet, they are learning a new way to eat and exercise. A lifestyle.  Unlike some of the other weight loss shows that are all about the pounds, the rules and goals are focused on permanent change. 
2. Medically supervised.  Other shows have doctors, but it’s still all about the weight.  “My Diet..” is also emphasizing generally health by celebrating lowered blood pressure and glucose counts.  
3. The coaches are stressing choices.  Even the weird ones.  As of week 4: 2 of the above coaches have been dismissed. The Strong Safe and Sexy Coach – Jennifer – is the new kid on the block. We will learn the new second coach this week(01/22/2016 episode 5)
4. It is all about the positive.  So far… Some of the players have been encouraging each other on camera, not tearing each other down.  $50k is at stake, yet they seem to be coalescing more in to a team vs competitive.  Some of the contestants are very competitive, but none have gotten abusive. 

You will notice there are 6 coaches, and 5 players.  Two of the coaches have been let go.  Last week Carolyn Barnes was released, and to be honest was a bit of a bitch about it.  The previous Week Javanka Ciasres (Wellness Smackdown) was released and replaced with Jennifer Cassetta (Strong, Safe and Sexy). This coming week we learn who will replace Carolyn Barnes.

What I find interesting is that the real results will come from the coach that can inspire their player the best.  Javanka is gone because her player did not get the idea.  Carolyn is gone, not because her ideas were bad, but because she could not inspire the La’Tasha.

So I’m following this with the hope that real lifestyle change becomes the norm instead of loose weight then do it again.  America obesity has been on the rise since the advent of the food pyramid in 1959.  Every modification to that pyramid has been proven to be scientifically wrong.  So this little competition is using eating plans that are varied.  One of these plans may work for you.  Watch the show, see what looks good and do something.  I know Kurt (Player for Wild Diet) has inspired me to get back to my better eating habits.  I stopped weighing myself and I’m sure I’ve let some food back in that has slowed my weight loss.  But you know what, today is a new day.  Now is always the right time to eat like you mean it.

For me that means “Eating for the healthy purpose of nutrition” not to lose weight, but to be healthy.  The weight is a symptom of my compulsive disorder, not who I am.

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.