Adapt and Overcome – the Oldest Survival skill

The news is dismal, but so much is perspective.  One life lost is too many, yet this is not the first, nor will it be the last pandemic we will ever deal with as a species.  They will be terrible, if for no other reason than our ability to travel.  Infections can literally travel the globe in hours.  So how do you keep from giving up?  If you put these horrendous numbers in perspective.  In all honesty by the time you read this thing will have changed.  But pulling back and looking at the big picture may help you mentally. That is the hope of this writing.

 How do you “Adapt and Overcome?”, Remember it is not all bad news.  The reality is much better than the reporting.

“Adapt and Overcome” is a term used by many in the armed services, especially our elite fighting units.  They are trained to see a situation and to change the plans as needed to get the final result.

It sounds very cool, and boy I wish I could do that!  Well, you can and you have.  Based on the fact you are reading or listening to this, that is proof that at some point in your life, you choose to adapt and overcome. At the time it may have been called learning to read or learning computer skills, but it was adaptation leading to overcoming some obstacle.

American and European society has forgotten this.  What proof do I have?  Toilet paper ladies and gentlemen!  The complete lack of TP due to hoarding is proof that we are losing the basic survival skill of adaption. 

Of all the things to horde, why Toilet Paper?  Toilet paper was not invented and marketed until 1857.  The roll as we now know it did not come into existence until 1883.  Given that history, how necessary is it in reality?  When it comes to survival it’s not.  But it is a nice convenience. Yet that is still lacking on the shelves, Many retailers are rationing it to one package per customer.

If you are struggling emotionally during this sequester, what is the root cause? Your lack of adaption.

If you are unable to work and are not getting paid, that is a concern. I Love the fact that in the “Recovery Package” Congress passed the New York Symphony $25 million.  As soon as that was announced, they dismissed all of the orchestras.  What was that money for?  If I were in congress, I’d submit a bill that, unless they hired and paid their orchestra, they would have to repay the $25M with interest. The NY Symphony is not dealing with reality.  They may not overcome because they refuse to adapt. 

One of the things in listening to the news, it sounds so hopeless.  But we see only a tiny portion of the picture.  We hear how many people are infected.  And we can’t stop thinking about it.

US Cases per the CDC (as of 03/30/2020)

• Infected: 140,904  Deaths 2,405
• This is a horrible number.  That is too many deaths.  So all people think about is dying.  But what are the odds in reality?
• Now, these odds will change over time. They honestly have almost doubled since Friday (03/27/2020) because the number of cases almost doubled.  But we will talk about that later.

But first the math!

We know for a fact that the number of cases is not accurate.  That number in the US is obtained by 2 major factors.

1.    Those diagnosed with the CV19- This does not mean you have been tested.  It means these people have contacted their doctor, and been diagnosed with SARS-CoV 2 (CoVid-19 or CV19).  I have found no indication that people who have this point recovered, and there have been recoveries, are removed from this number.  So let us assume this number is moderately accurate. 

2.    Those who have tested and found to be positive for CV19.  This number is growing rapidly and will continue to grow.  At least for a while.  More testing is being done.  But that is truly not bad news.  As testing becomes more prevalent, we as a country can move from sequestering everybody, then quarantine those who have the disease.

Now for the encouragement.  (Stay with me)

About the number: If we assume that for every person that we know has the virus, 10 to 100 others have been at least exposed if not contracted it.

What is good about that?

It is only between 0.43% -4.29 % of the US population has been exposed, much less contracted. Is this a guess?  Sure, but an educated one. 

In more good news, the number of people that when tested are positive for CV19 is about 35%. So that means 65% or those tested are negative.  Again good news.

So the odds in a nutshell –

Worst case there is currently 4.29 percent of the US population who have been exposed.  So you have a 94% chance of meeting healthy people out there.  This is not to say we should go to a mosh pit or the like.

If you have sequestered yourself as requested, and have limited your odds of exposer over the last 2 weeks, you are probably either immune, many people are, or you have not been exposed. So until treatment is approved or a vaccine is made available, we are doing the right thing. 

More good news:

Per the CDC, there are 600 treatments and 300 vaccines in trials for CV19. There have been promising known medications that have worked.  Treatment is coming.  We just need to be patient.  Getting out to the moshpit too soon will ruin all of our hard work. 

For those of us working from home, I hope you like it.  This has forced companies to figure out how to allow for telecommuting.  On average it costs a company bout $1100 a month to provide you with desk/office space.  Maybe a little less for the cubical city.  Due to people staying home, Los Angles and other smog-ridden cities are seeing blue skies for the first time in a long time.  So if you can work from home, keep your job and cut out transportation time and cost, would that not be a good thing?

For those who lost jobs due to this, I hope that you can find work again.  It may require a new mindset from ourselves.  But that again is “Adapt and Overcome” at work.

The odds of you getting sick right now are slim, but not zero. If you are an at-risk person, extra caution beyond the current April 30^th mark may be needed.  But the reality is, by next year we will have treatments and vaccines approved. We are learning how to deal with pandemics in the modern world. 

In 2009, we had an H1N1 Pandemic.  The US Government did nothing until after 1000 people died, then they used up all the stockpiles and never replaced them.  We have been moving much faster this time.  We learned from our mistakes.  Nobody would say we have been perfect. Yet we are learning to be flexible. 

Companies like Nike, GM and others are producing N95 rated masks.  I just found out a local distillery here in Portland is making hand sanitizer specifically for hospitals and first responders. So a bad time to be an alcoholic, of course, is there a good time?

It is a good thing for a species to be nimble, that can adapt.  Those that do not go extinct.  It is a natural order of things. 

So can you see the reality through the trees?

Can you adapt and overcome?

Of course, you can, you learned how to walk, eat read and so many other things.  It is a matter of seeing what is real and important.  And doing that.  Oddly enough toilet paper is not important.  It is nice, but not important.  Your neighbor, friends, and social entanglements help you adapt.  If they don’t, then find ones that do.

You can overcome.

“Bless them which persecute you: bless, and curse not. Rejoice with them that do rejoice, and weep with them that weep. Be of the same mind one toward another. Mind not high things, but condescend to men of low estate. Be not wise in your own conceits. Recompense to no man evil for evil. Provide things honest in the sight of all men.

If it be possible, as much as lieth in you, live peaceably with all men. Dearly beloved, avenge not yourselves, but rather give place unto wrath: for it is written, Vengeance is mine; I will repay, saith the Lord.
Therefore if thine enemy hunger, feed him; if he thirst, give him drink: for in so doing thou shalt heap coals of fire on his head. Be not overcome of evil, but overcome evil with good.”

Romans 12: 14-21 (KJV)

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

Crunch Time - SARS-CoV 2 (CoVid-19) infection report for March 26th, 2020

I like to crunch numbers, yes I probably am a little disturbed.  Doing math comforts me and helps me understand.  When we hear global numbers approaching the million mark, it is easy to become frightened.  But if we look at things from the ants perspective there is a little more comfort in the numbers.

• According to the US CDC as of 4 PM yesterday -Total US cases: 85,356
• Total US deaths: 1,246
• Jurisdictions reporting cases: 54 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands.

(Source: US Center for Disease Control Website.

The Math:

US Citizens – 327, 800,00 (328Million Million - Approximated in 2018)
Percent of the Population carrying (est): between 853,000 and 8,356,000
(Calculation between 10 to 100 times the number of known infected.  This is to account for the number of people that may be carrying and not know it, or those that are not being reported, due to lack of testing)

Estimated Exposed:

This is based on simple math.  The number of known cases, multiplied by 10 or 100.  That is to account for the large number of people who may be asymptomatic, or only slightly ill and have not been reported.  These numbers are estimated at best.  But they seem to be generally accepted in epidemiological worlds.

What's it mean?

Somewhere between .026 and 2.6 percent of the US population has been exposed.  So in a crowd of 100 people, as many as 3 could have been exposed and may be contagious.  Just remember that recently both Madi Gras and Spring Break drew crowds. There has already been an uptake in cases.  As long as we practice personal distancing, and sequester when we can, that will slow down again.
Should we be concerned?-  Well yes.  But paranoid and freaky no.

To be honest there are things we need to do.  We need to shut our borders down.  Thousands of people from China flew to Canada, and Mexico is not promoting any caution.  We need to be prepared to send help to them, but for our own safety, keep new people from coming here.  There are a few people in Mexico that are promoting the virus only affects the rich.  Anybody should know this is blatantly false.  As of this writing, there are 300 confirmed cases in Mexico.  Why so few?  They are not testing nor reporting on it.  It is not selfish to protect yourself and be willing to help others.  But for lots of reasons, the help should go there.  Not be handled here.

But if you look at the bigger picture versus the huge numbers, you understand you have about a one in fifty chance of even being exposed.  If you have been home for 2 weeks, and have not developed any symptoms, you’re probably OK.

What should I do?

Self-Sequester and maintain the 6-foot personal space bubble. Wash your hands.  Be ready for more sequester.  If we are lucky, we can hope to have things start to head back to normal in April. But that is a desire, not a fact.

Be encouraged:

Cures seem to be forthcoming, we may already have a cure. If people will stop trying to kill themselves.  NOTE: The Fishtank stuff is not the same kind of Hydro-Chloroquine that the medical professional use.  Chloroquine is a modern treatment for Malaria. It has been around for 50 years.
Also, note that vaccines are being developed and tested.  Isreal, as well as US Companies, are fast-tracking the vaccine research.

Summer is coming, with that means more sun and UV rays kill viruses.  Also with more outdoor activity means we will need to remember our spacing.

1. Tests are shipping en mass.
2. Ventilators for the truly sick are on the way.  The US has 30 times the number of ventilators as compared to Italy.  Previous administrations failed to restock our reserve after the H1N1 epidemic.  So our reserves are low.  But that is changing. 
3. If you have not developed symptoms, and you have been 100% sequestered for the last 2 weeks, you are probably safe for now.  If you had to go outside, most of us did, then you need to wait 2 more weeks from your last trip outside in the world.  Though at the store today, it was really easy to stay away from everybody else.

Keep a positive thought, focus on the care of your family and neighbors.

The numbers are depressing, but the odds are with you.

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

Take a look at the data, download the excel spreadsheet I used to make calculations.  All data were from the CDC Website as described.

Dear Mister President - March 26th, 2020

Just a note to say keep doing your best.  Though I’m sure you’re not perfect, more perfect than I for sure, but still human, keep on keeping on.  Your administration is caught in a terrible situation, that will require drastic measures.  Please support the Constitution first and foremost.  That will keep us in the best place moving forward.

Concerning states are trying to get you to nationally mobilize the National Guard:  Please stay the course, allowing the states to do that if they wish. States like Montana, Iowa, and others may not need that, where states like California will.  The previous policies on homeless and illegal migrants tip the scales against those states.  Let them do what they need to do.  Keep up with providing the overall vision. 

• In our country of 340- million, as of today:
• Known Infected: 68,440 with SARS-CoV 2 (Covid-19, the virus from China)
• Deaths: 994 (54 reporting regions, the 50 states plus 4 territories) (Source: CDC, US Cases Daily Update)

Even if we were to assume 10 times that many infections, that is still less than .02% of the US population. Even 100 times that is still about 2% of the population.  The fast action of closing the boarders was a good idea.  Could we have closed travel to Canada and Mexico, maybe, at least restricted that to trade goods?

To stop this we will need to close our borders completely.  Even states like California and New York ought to consider closing access to food and goods only.  Folks in Transportation need to be tested regardless of their health status to avoid spreading the diseases. 

Even migrant workers whose visas were canceled may need to be tested and then allowed to work.  If we do not plant for spring and summer, there can be no harvest in the fall. 

New York and Los Angles notwithstanding, our self sequester seems to have done its job, having slowed down the rise. People's lives are more important than the economy, but the economy can affect everybody’s life.  The stimulus being passed by the Congress is a pork ridden piece of garbage, but I am sure the socialists in the congress and senate will use the powers they have to force the garbage into the final bill.  I am not sure you will have a choice but to sign it.  The question is: Will the fanning of the flames contained in the bill, be outweighed by the other good stuff.  I would support a veto and make a big deal of what the problems are.  Pointing to each piece and who put it in the bill.  This should be an election year.  Use that!  Do a line-item veto, sending it back to be fixed.  Not sure that that is a wise choice, I know that I don’t know all the details. I do know my wife (who is the only one working) could see some reduction in hours.  Her company must stay solvent. But I am also sure we will be all right.  Others will not be so lucky. 

Thank you and your staff for their service.  They call you a fascist and then try to get you to use the military to foist a socialist agenda upon “We the People.”

I pray for you and our leaders daily.  Please serve to the best of your ability and with the spirit of our founding fathers in your mind. 

God Bless you, Donald J Trump, President of the United States of America.

Gregor A Hinckley
Citizen, United States of America
eMail: hinckley.gregor@gmail.com

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

SARS-CoV 2 and Personal Responsibility vs Government Oversite

As Americans, we should be looking at personal responsibility to solve this problem.  People keep yelling for more government control, but that can not work.  It is that simple.  

I would love to be able to use China as an example of what to do.  But we can’t believe what is being said from there.  So what other sources do we have? 

There was an article sent to me by an author (Dietmar Wehr) that I follow.  He has written some excellent Sci-Fi books.  Though some of his newer stuff as started contain sex and foul language. One does What they want to sell books.  

The article is called Corona Virus, the Hammer and the Dance. 

Though I am not a fan of the conclusions, there are some interesting things in the article.  It is long and technical.  So here is what I see that applies to me as an American.

The countries suffering the least are either – not reporting it because they are not technically able to, or they are sparsely populated.    As of his writing, the World Health Organization (WHO) does not have any reported cases in Botswana, Lesotho or Swaziland.  These examples I use because I have been there. It’s possible they do not have the means to report on this. But all of these countries are not as backward as some may think.  So if they have seen the virus, I would expect that the reporting would have happened.  The ods of a remote village, that nobody ever travels to internationally, is unlikely to be infected.  But capital cities, where the airport and business centers are, will get it most likely.  These countries have hospitals, many staffed by western doctors, and the ability to communicate.  

Social distancing works!  

Sparse countries have a lower infection rate.  So if we do our best to stay separated, if people who are sick self-quarantine immediately and we do not try to physically interact – You can avoid getting sick.  The idea that SARS-CoV 2 (Covid-19 or CV-19) is here to stay is a reality.  Just like the Swine, Spanish or Avian flu, these all still infect us over 100 years after the first outbreak.  Be smart and be voluntary.  

Why take the mask off?

Many people have surgical or dust masks, and some are worthless.  It is most important that you wear a mask to protect others, NOT yourself.  An N95 mask without a valve will capture 95% of the water droplets from your cough or sneeze.  If it has a valve, though more comfortable, it will not stop you from infecting others.  And that is what a mask is for.  Let the Medical/Emergency field have the masks.  You are better off breathing fresh air and getting out in the sun.  But at a safe distance from others.   

What other things not really mentioned?

Take care of your neighbors.

People who live within sight of your property, are your neighbors. The lone prepper or hermit has less chance of survival than the person who works in their community.  If you have not seen your neighbor check on them,  Just say hello thorough the door, if you have extra, share, if you are going on a supply run, offer to pick stuff up.  It is called common decency. 

People panic and horde – Don’t play. 

The current toilet paper shortages are a ridiculous sign.  There are people buying tons of it. Some of them will resell it at outrageous prices.  Don’t pay or Play!  Black markets happen when the supply is short.  They thrive because people use them.  If somebody has bought out a bunch of stuff to sell at higher prices, don’t play.  Businesses are free ration or set their prices. People ought to be allowed to buy what they want to. As a free society, it is your personal responsibility to not support bad behavior.  If people get stuck with 500 gallons of sanitizer or 1000 pounds of toilet paper, that is not your fault.  The supply lines will catch up. 

Having “Government” responsible for public action or health can only lead to tyranny.  There is no other path.  But a Representative Republic can work if “We the People” understand that I, as an individual, am responsible for my neighbor.  I have a responsibility to check on them and help them if needed. 

Be safe, keep your distance.  Defend your neighbor.  We can get through this. 

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.