Dear Oregon, Being a Cop just got harder.

US Navy Traning Session

The Special Session of the Oregon legislature is trying to bring about major changes in the way Law enforcement is organized. The law of “unintended consequences” will increase crime and the number of people seriously injured or killed by law enforcement. With the new investigative power being proposed and the fact that Police Unions will have even more power – Who really thinks this is a good idea? Oh yes, the anarchists. The bills proposed look like an Anarchist dream.

 

HB4201 – Joint Committee to “investigate” police incidents.

For every incident, this pulls major law enforcement players from across the State of Oregon to investigate any incident of death or “qualifying” injury of a suspect.  On the surface, this does sound like a good idea.  The State Attorney General appoints a special investigator that can not be part of the department of the Officer(s) who had the incident against a suspect.  This part really does not sound too bad.  Though the power of the “Special Investigator,” an appointee is equal to that of a District Attorney. an elected position. This bypasses the ability for the public to have sway over who represents us.  People want a “democracy” and yet we elect officials who work to take our vote away.  It would have been better if the “Special Investigator” had to work with the District Attorney. Then at least “We the People” would be represented. But the legislature had to complicate things… A lot!   

This bill also establishes a “deadly physical force planning authority” that has the following members – The local Sheriff and the District Attorney of the jurisdiction where the incident occurred. Not office representatives of these parties, but the actual officeholder.  Also, a Peace Officer who should be (if available) a designated Union representative. One of the Police Chiefs In that county,  A “Public Representative” selected by the DA and The Sheriff, a member of the Oregon State Police, selected by the Superintendent of State Police. A tribal Law enforcement officer if desired by any tribes in the county.

That means every incident will be examined by not only the “Special Investigator”, but also the DA, Sherriff, a peace officer (Probably a Union Representative), a civilian, A state police officer for a total of 5 plus if needed a tribal enforcement officer.  Why the Special Investigator, The District Attorney, and if needed the local Grand Jury is not enough, I am not sure.  We are adding yet another layer that will cause more delays.  If an Officer is found justified, as will probably be the case in most incidents, we have just added several weeks to the resolution, for no real benefit. 

This is another crack for things to fall through, and your legislators are making it happen on purpose. 

SB1604 – Gives Unions more power in disciplinary hearings and arbitration.

This bill essentially means the Peace Officers unions can dictate what punishments are given to Police Officers.  When wrongdoing is seen by both the Police Department and the Union in arbitration.  This may have started as a way to keep officers from some form of double jeopardy, but the end result is that officer discipline is negotiated as part of the Union Deal.  That is what enabled Office Chauvin to abuse George Floyd.  If Officer Chauvin had been eliminated from the force after his previous repeated infractions, Mr. Floyd may be alive (Note; Floyd Autopsies).

To me, it seems the unions are part of the problem.  Officers need the legal protections a union offers.  That is true.  But as public employees, the better solution may be private legal counsel. Maybe there should be legal associations available to the Officers like USCCA  but for police.  Allowing them affordable council.  How much are Police dues, and do they get their money’s worth?  Collective bargaining for public employees has its own problems, raising the cost to “We the People.” Just look at Cal-PERS or any state where unions run everything.

HB4204 and HB4208 – No more Choke holds under any circumstances and no more non-lethal crowd control methods (Tear Gas and Sound Cannons).

I am grouping these two bills because they both have to do with non-lethal force.  The unintended consequences of this will be MORE deaths. Not fewer. 

Let that sink in for a second. Taking away non-lethal tools? That means the officers will need to accelerate to the use of lethal force.  It is a simple equation. 

When dealing with a crowd, the inability to use tear gas and sound will necessitate the use of clubs, rubber bullets and probably shotguns.  Or we let the crowds rampage.  How has that worked for Portland, Seattle, Minneapolis and New York City?

The death of George Floyd was tragic, but it was the abuse of the officer, not a chokehold or tear gas that killed him.  And I’m, sorry Sonic Cannons are a great way to disperse a violent group of people.  By reducing the number of choices you increase the odds for the legitimate need for lethal force.  It is that simple.  The law o unintended consequences.

Conclusion:

The police in the state of Oregon are generally well trained and professional.  The number of incidents in our state, per capita, are lower than most. 

What has happened in places that have tightened the cuffs on officers? New York and other cities “defunding” the police have crime skyrocketing.  Our police are Nobel people trying to do a job professionally.  The Women and men of law enforcement deserve our support, not our scorn. 

We have a chance to vote in November.  To find representatives that will solve the problem instead of reacting, badly to every whim. 

 

In November Vote for Freedom. Supporting the anarchists can only bring terror and fear.  Deimos and Phobos, the Children of Mars, God of War.  There was a meme going around of the State Farm commercial Character “Mayhem” (Played by Dean Winters) as "Person of the Year." Not something to be proud of. The best way to stop Mayhem is not to invite it in. 

I am considering a Run for the Oregon House Seat 29 In Hillsboro Oregon. 

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

A letter to the American People

Dear America,

On July 4^th, 1776, the first Continental Congress ratified the Declaration of independence.  It started the separation of the 13 colonies from the British Empire.  A separation that had been festering for years. People came to this continent in order to exercise freedoms.  And when those freedoms were threatened by “The Crown”, they declared the desire to separate themselves. And they gave reasons why.

In this time of turmoil, there are people within the borders of this country that seeks a drastic change.  We are now faced with a similar choice as we had in 1860.  A leader of the New York Chapter of Black Lives Matter (BLM) said:

“If this the country doesn’t give us what we want, then we will burn down this system and replace it. All right?”
- Hawk Newsome (06/24/2020 - Fox News "The Story" segment)

Mr. Newsome later tried to confuse what he said by “clarifying” his statement adding - “And I could be speaking figuratively. I could be speaking literally. It’s a matter of interpretation”?  Talk about Double Speak, George Orwell would be proud.  Am I to interpret what he said as either a threat or a threat?  Whether figurative or not, the meaning is clear.  If the Organization of BLM does not get what they want they will “burn down this system and replace it…” Is that unclear in any way?

I am not speaking figuratively.  Let me be clear. I am a supporter of the constitution of the United States of America.  I believe in a “Representative Republic” that is based on three branches of government set against each other, whose sole purpose is to protect the rights of the individual person.  Even ones I disagree with.

I can agree with the organization of Black Lives Matter (BLM) that this country is in trouble.  It is in trouble because we have ceded the path of knowledge to radicals who want to change the facts as they stand. 

I stand for the following values:

• All people are created equal, each person has a right to life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness granted them by the fact of their existence. 
• That the government’s sole job is to allow freedom and exercise of the rights of each person. Not collective rights or salvations.  Whatever qualifies as salvation is attained by the individual.
• There is a process to extract change in our government and that process is representative in nature.

 On June 24^th, 2020 Black Lives Matter declared war on the United States of America.

The war has been going on for years. Their allegiance with AntiFa and Resist Fascism sound like great ideas.  But if you use the tactics of the groups you abhor, and the principles you fight for are the same as those you say you are against, then I can only conclude you are the enemy.   If you want to establish socialism, please feel free to do it elsewhere.  There are choices where you can go.  Cuba would probably love to have your money and your labor.  Though you might not like the conditions….  Be careful what you wish for.

Destruction of property, private or public is against societal norms.  If you are oppressed by an inanimate object, you obviously are a blue pill liberal.  The “Blue Pill” allows you to see the world as it is filtered through the narrative of your misconceptions.  It encourages an emotional response.  James 3:16 “For where jealousy and selfish ambition exist, there is disorder and every evil thing” (NASB).  Oddly enough every culture that has had any success has striven for less selfishness and more thought and service.  “Alcoholics Anonymous” speaks of “Selfishness – Self-centeredness! That we think is the root of our problem (Page 63 1^st Paragraph)> The Qur'an teaches selflessness is the path to salvation (Example Qur’an 76:7-11). Buddhist promote selfless-ness too:

The burden of Selfishness by Buddhadasa Bhikkhu:

Selfishness gives rise to love, greed, anger, hatred, fear, worry, frustration, envy, jealousy, possessiveness. All of these are aspects of selfishness. Love through fear and worry, are just different aspects of selfishness. All this is such a powerfully destructive burden upon the mind. It weighs the mind down. If we get outside of our little worlds and start to observe what is really happening around us and also within us, if we come out of our clouds, break free of our daydreams, and really look, we shall see all this selfishness and all the harm and pain that it causes, both to ourselves and to others, This is the burden of selfishness.

So America I ask you to return to the roots of our founding.  That the focus of Government is not the benefit specific individuals, but to promote equal opportunity for all.  In Government, less is more in all things. To understand that the contention between the House of Representatives and the Senate was on purpose.  So that the large States could not dictate to the smaller States and that the individual right to pursue happiness as they see fit can be preserved. 

Anyone that uses force on you has only one intent, to take what you have.  You are encouraged to share, but no group should take it. Destroying businesses, insured or not, is wrong.  It is selfish and that path leads to destruction. Defend yourselves to the fullest extent of your ability.

I am a Christian, a Husband, a Father, and an American. All of those balance together to give me the principles that guide me. I believe in freedom, choices are what proves you have freedom.  Though I do not agree with everybody, everybody has a right to believe what they want. But they do not get to tell me what I believe or how to believe it.  The Socialist agenda is just the opposite.

I do not want to start a fight.  Sadly, that has already been done.  But I am willing to end it.  

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

#ProudAmerican, #RepresentativeRepublic, #BurnYourOwnFlag

#BurnYourOwnFlag

It is trendy to burn flags of the United States of America.  I hate this practice because the people doing so are using it to express hate.  I support their actions because I believe it is an expression of free speech. 

On this date (June 25^th, 2020) I could find no instances of #BurnYourOwnFlag as a hashtag in use.  So I am defining it. 

Protesting peacefully is a right guaranteed, not be the first amendment, that protects the right, but by your creator.  I use the term creator to be as inclusive as possible.  You are free to choose what you believe in your origin story.  All I ask is that if you want to burn an American, or any other flag, be sure that you bought it.  That you own it.  Burning other people’s flags, without their permission is theft. 

Tearing down historical monuments is vandalism. 

These are crimes.  They are not protected by the Constitution of the United States of America.

And if I stand between you and a monument you’re intending to tear down, without authorization of the governing body of that monument, we have a problem. 

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

CoVid Culture - Is suicide Painless?

I finally found some stats on suicide in Oregon. There was an article in the Oregonian – Oregonians have died at a rate well above the aversive since mid-March (Updated April 29^th as of this writing).  It shows that between MARCH 15^TH to April 19^th 245 Oregonians died from suicide.  On average we usually would have almost 90 in that same period.  That means that 155 more died than what is considered average.  As of this writing (05/26/2020) there have been 148 deaths in total due to SARS CoV 2 (CV19).

Note that there have been no new deaths since Friday May 22^nd and only 22 new cases recorded. 

According to World population Review – Suicide by States Oregon has lost 825 people so far in 2020.  On average Oregon saw 70 suicides a month in 2019.  That would be 350 by the end of May.  Yet we have more than doubled that (about a 230% increase).

The Oregonian article indicated that “It is unclear if other fallout from the pandemic, including fear of seeking health care,” was the cause of this. And that is true, interviewing dead people pose technical difficulties that we have not surmounted. On the other hand the reason folks are afraid to seek medical care is because of the CV19.

But given common factors of suicide we can determine; the economic downturn, social isolation, and other depressive contributing factors that have all been forced on us, it seems unlikely that the restrictions were not at least a contributing factor.  It is known that people who attend Spiritual worship or social events tend to be less likely to commit suicide.

Without question these people were troubled to start with.  That argument indicates that they are less valuable than others.  I for one can’t promote that premise.

Again the question is when is the prevention worse than the disease? It seems to me if we are losing twice as many or more to suicide than CV19 that maybe we passed that point in April.  It is now the end of May. 

Re-opening “everything” does come with its risks.  The original idea was to “reduce the wave” so that our hospitals could keep up.  Hospitals are now closing because they don’t have enough patients to stay open. 

Suicide Prevention Lifeline

There is some hope for a vaccine, though no timeline on that can be promised.  Given what we learned from SARS CoV (The 2002 Corona Strain), that gave us a leg up on the SARS CoV 2 (CV19). But there is still no guarantee.  A Little vaccine history lesson here.

Developing a “herd immunity” at this point may only be achieved through exposure. So when do we start that treatment?

The other costs that can’t be calculated are the labor drought that seems to be starting to show up. With all the stimulus, in some cases, it makes more economic sense for people to stay at home.  These people are the one ones that work mostly for small business.  Small Business employes 80% of the workforce. If they have to raise salaries to attract people, that increases inflation.  Add that to the value of the US Dollar that will eventually drop because we just “Made up” money for the stimulus.

We currently live with SARS, MERS, H3N2 (Hong Kong Flu from the 1968 Pandemic) as well as many others.  We will see many deaths from CV19.  Remember the initial count was in the multimillions in the US alone.  That now seems unlikely.  As states open it will be important to see if the spike that will happen starts to tax our now reduced hospital capacity. But we are on a war footing now.  Those hospitals can be re-opened.  Most states have started to store up capacity for consumable medical supplies that were depleted by earlier administrations on every level.

A question to answer is when is it better to open up?  Now when the weather is getting brighter, and the conditions for spread are as low as they can get? Or wait until fall, when we are all living indoors more and have less exposure to the big bright natural disinfector in the sky (The Sun)?

Governor Kate Brown, How many suicides do you want to be responsible for? 

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

Crunching the Numbers – The Safety Third Idea

We hear about the “New Normal”, I have even talked about this in previous posts.  But I mean something different.  I don’t mean the drastic changes society “must” make to survive this.  I mean the risk management to get back to what normal always returns to. We talk about this technological age, and “how different” things are now than 2000 years ago.  But is it really?  Sure we can circle the globe in hours literally, in less than an hour in orbit, everything has the same purpose, we are just better at it.

The wheel brought the engine that brought the airplane.  In the end it boils down to getting places to gather food, provide shelter, and reproduce.  We earn money to gather food and purchase shelter.  But the essentials are the same. They have gathered food, made families, and sought to improve their current station.  Every change to society, including the 1791 “Great Experiment,” was to define or support “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.” 

There are very scary numbers regarding our current pandemic. If you look at just the total numbers, it is frightening. But you don’t live your life based on that kind of information. If you only looked at “total numbers,” we would not have 5-gallon buckets (Kills more children 5 and under than anything else), Drive or ride in a car (38,800 killed in 2019), or stay at home.  In the United States (2018 numbers) 49 people out of every 100k die from “unintentional accidents” (this includes car accidents). In Oregon 2.9 out 100k have died so far from CV19.  I wish I could guarantee your safety at home, but to be honest, you are at risk staying at home. 

The Numbers are scary!

Is it really?  There are a few things about the numbers we must acknowledge.  

1. Many to the “Confirmed cases” are diagnosed by fever, inability to smell, or respiratory distress.  The number of diseases that present with these symptoms is amazing. Including one corona type virus, we have been fighting forever, the common cold.

2. Of the People told to take a test because they are symptomatic, only 35% test positive.  

3. We know people who tested positive, died of other diseases (Cancer, heart failure, etc) has been counted as CV19 deaths.   (April 7th Dr. Brix at the CV19 Task Force Press Conference).  There is no doubt that people who died from other issues are being counted as CV19 Death.

We can’t know the true numbers until we have reliable tests for antibodies as well as the diseases itself, as well as every person is tested live or has an autopsy.  That is not happening. It is not possible.

Our current numbers US/Oregon:

US Population (est.): 329,000,000 >>(See Notes)
*Confirmed Cases: 1,611,297 (Increase of 161,161 over May 15th numbers)
Total Deaths: 95,213 (an increase of 8,606 over May 15th numbers)
**Total Recovered: 308,625
Death Rate: 5.91% (unadjusted numbers)

About Oregon?

Oregon Population (est.): 4,180,000
*Confirmed Cases: 3,817 (Increase of 338 over May 15th numbers)
Total Deaths: 145 (an increase of 8 over May 15th h numbers)
**Total Recovered: Unreported by Oregon
Death Rate: 3.70% unadjusted numbers, that is 35.71% below the national average))

In the last week, Oregon cases have slowed to a crawl. More people are getting tested, and the rate of increase is slowing every week. I keep hearing Mayor Cuomo if New York City touting the “Even if it saves just one life” line. Yet that is a marketing fallacy.  This was never about saving individual lives, because this kind of restriction can’t save lives it can only reduce the risk.  Then the question is when is the prevention worse than the disease. 

Safety third:

Mike Rowe has often talked about “safety third” and has espoused on this theme in several interviews and blog posts (Mike Rowe – “Walk me through this “Safety Third Thing”).  

We now know, because China did not acknowledge the early stages of the epidemic there, it turned in to a pandemic.  Because China restricted travel inside the country but not only allowed but encouraged foreigners to leave, without testing or notifying the destination countries of the risk, we have a pandemic.   There is evidence that New York, California, and Washington state have been fighting this since 2019.  All of our “authoritative models” have been wrong. Not by just a little.  

It is time for Oregon to open.  Washington County, where I live) is considered one of the Oregon “Hot Spots” but it has only one 5th of the cases in Oregon.  Washington County has about one 5th of the population of the state. So it is not “overly infected” really. It just has one of the most densely populated counties. Imagine that!

We should be realistic about what we are doing.  If you are high risk, maybe sequester is the right choice.  As for me – I will not offer my hand out of respect for your distance.  But I should have a shirt or hat made that says “Will Hug or handshake on request.”

It’s time. 

Notes:

* - Tested or diagnosed through clinical means.
** - Tested free of CV19 twice over 2 weeks, after diagnosed as positive. 
>> Dropped down to be consistent with the US news media, though this estimate is 2 years old and does not include unregistered persons.  The 2020 census should clear this up.

Crunching The New Numbers: It is Shocking! Does quarantine cause infection?

My apologies for not keeping up with this.  My computer died and it took a little while to get a new set up tweaked in.  Plus it looked like things were going to open, then they didn’t. 

In statistics recently released in New York City, 66% of new cases came from homes that were following the quarantine.  In Florida and Georgie, 2 states that bucked the trend and opened up a few weeks ago, both saw a 10-12 percent reduction in new cases.  Reports now 3 months after the fact, prove that the Wisconsin Primary Election held in February (Super Tuesday), did not cause any spike in the numbers.

 

But this is about real numbers.  So let’s see what we have learned in the last month.

 

3 studies that I know about, one in Germany, Fresno California, and New York City  New York, sampled a few thousand people who were asymptomatic for the virus.  These were not antibody studies.  These were simply people that were tested for CoVid-19 (CV19) out of hand.  In New York, it was Pregnant Women who came in to give birth.  In Fresno, It was people asking to be tested for sanity or work-related testing of healthy people.  In Germany, they tested 80% of a town. 

The results, though a small sample size (2-8 thousand tests in each case), showed 15% of the subjects were positive, though asymptomatic.  If that holds, Oregon can expect that some 632,700 people are currently or have been infected.  In the United States, 15% of 328.1 Million People are 49.22 Million people. I know this number is wrong because the infection rate n some areas are far lower than 15%. The less densely populated areas will have a lower rate because infections travel slower. 

The Numbers are still encouraging

US Population (est.): 329,000,000 >>(See Notes)
+Estimated exposed to the Virus: 262.475M
(Estimated Percent of National Population exposed 79.8%)
*Confirmed Cases: 1,450,136 (Increase of 218,515 over April 17^th numbers)
Total Deaths:           86,607 (an increase of 50.700 over April 17^th numbers)
**Total Recovered: 253,279
Death Rate: 0.552%, Based on the estimated total exposed. (5.97% unadjusted numbers)

So what about Oregon?

Oregon Population (est.): 4,180,000
+Estimated exposed/recovered to the Virus: 629,699
(Estimated Percent of State Population 15.06%)
*Confirmed Cases: 3,479 (Increase of 1,328 over April 17^th numbers)
Total Deaths:           137 (an increase of 73 over April 17^th numbers)
**Total Recovered: Unreported by Oregon
Death Rate: 0.083%, Based on the estimated total exposed. (3.9% unadjusted numbers, that is 33% below the national average))

What does this mean?

Of all states, Oregon is probably one of the safest.  Even despite the initial push of numbers. Against the national average, we are far better off than other places.  So why are we still forcing businesses to close? The unintended consequences can be just as bad as the disease.

The point of the sequester was to keep from overwhelming the hospitals.  It was never about saving lives.  Sadly these things must run their course.  It is natural.  It is what happens.  Keeping schools closed next year will keep parents home.  They will not be able to afford to go back to work.  Because of global food production decreases, because of the lockdown. The UN World FoodProgram estimates 265 million people will starve directly due to reduced food production because of CV19.  In comparison, less than 0.114% of that number have died from CV19 globally.  As of May 17^th, 2020: 303,825 people have died from CV19.  Again the cure is worse than the disease.

So what’s next?

Well, we can either keep going, destroy the local economy or we can start learning to live with this pandemic just like every other one we have experienced.  Not the people who want to keep us under control have one tool.  That is fear.  It is all about “saving lives” is the big lie.  It was always about giving us time to prepare for the inevitable wave that is coming.  According to local news, we have months of PPE available for hospitals.  Ventilators,  that may do more harm than good,  as well as treatment options.  Hydrocholoquine has proven 90% effective.  There are other immune suppression methods used to great success in California.  I know that sounds weird, but it boils down to the idea that CV19 can cause a cascading immune response, and that is what kills the at-risk and weaker patients.

We NEED a Vaccine!

Some of the folks who tell you to “shelter in place,” say we need to develop a vaccine to develop “herd immunity.” As wonderful as that sounds, there has never been a vaccine developed for any corona type virus.  SARS CoV, the original SARS virus was discovered in 2002.  Since that time millions have been dumped into a vaccine and curative research.  Some treatments have come out of that, but not a vaccine. So should we look for one?  Sure we may get lucky.  But to count on it is insanity. 

On the flip side, if 15% of the population has already been exposed and fought off the disease,  we are that much closer to herd immunity.  Herd Immunity is calculated by computer models.  There are estimates of between 80% to 15% of the population would have had to been exposed to CV19, either fought it off or be inoculated, for us as a species to reach herd immunity.  A little known fact about “herd immunity” is that does not mean the virus disappears and nobody dies.  It means that enough people can fight it off to reduce the death rate. 

Again a vaccine should be researched.  And those that want it should take it.  Those that don’t shouldn’t be forced (yes I am libertarian). But the only way to guarantee an eventual return to normal life is for us to get out, and get exposed.   It is not that I want people to die, I am just pointing out we are not actually saving any lives by doing what we are doing.  In the long run, we will kill more people.  More of them children according to the United Nations.

Go outside, get some sun.  Say hello to people.  You are more likely to die from a fall in your bathroom that in contracting a virus,l you may already have fought off.  Freedom is not without risk, but lockdown is just prison with Netflix or Disney+ and a comfortable couch.

Notes:

* - Tested or diagnosed through clinical means.
** - Tested free of CV19 twice over 2 weeks, after diagnosed as positive.
+ - Based on 15% of the population having asymptomatic response. See German, California, and New York Studies.   The math works out that each person exposes about 181 other people.  The previous calculation used 110 other people being exposed. 
>> Dropped down to be consistent with the US news media, though this estimate is 2 years old and does not include unregistered persons.  The 2020 census should clear this up.

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

Breaking news – The NIH funded the Wuhan Viral institute’s research in to CV19

Dateline YouTube 9:30 PM Pacific time.

Before Bed tonight I watched “Verdict with Ted Cruze” on You Tube.  Ted apparently reads my blog.  But the most interesting thing is that the US National Institute of Health (AKA NIH) spent &73,301 in research to the Wuhan Virology Research Institute on Corona Viruses from Bats, and the impact on human biology. Why we would send this money all over the world (about $3.7M+ dollars world-wide) in research is beyond me.  Apparently, part of the research was on human fetal samples. So Human experimentation.

 Source:

So here we are with a global pandemic at least partially funded by the United States.  Guess what gang, let us do the research here, at least them we can be responsible for the results.  Good or bad.

This was corroborated by the UK Daily Mail in an article on April 11th, 2020.

Not that funding medical research is a bad thing.  But given the history of China and other research facilities, maybe this was a bad idea.  According to toe Congressman Matt Gaetz, this is not new activity.

Do we ever know where your money goes? 

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

Crunch time – More encouraging news from the numbers-04/17/2020

The Changes:

This is week 4 of this string of articles. A lot has changed in the last week. Germany took a whole town, and tested 80% of the population, regardless of symptoms. Trying to estimate what percentage of the population was infected. They cam up with about 15%. Test results in NYC - Women who were pregnant and came in to deliver children, were tested (220 of them) and 15% of them. Tested positive for CV19. Most seemed to be asymptomatic.

What does this mean?

 It shows that the mathematical model I’ve been using is close to correct. Sadly it is the worst-case estimate that was a little low. Instead of a ratio of 1 to 100 of known infected vs actual infected, it is 1 to 110. This means for every confirmed/Diagnosed case, there are 110 more people out there who are asymptomatic or who had such mild cases no diagnoses nor testing occurred. In my historical calculations, I changed that exposure estimate.

That means as of today we are running about 23% of the population seems having been exposed. The reasons for this are more have been tested. We have tested almost 2% of the population. There is a new test available in the next 2 weeks that takes minutes vs days. It is a less invasive nasal swab. So it is more comfortable and can be performed in Drive through or the Doctor Office. This too is good news. People tested are still 65% negative. So even though symptomatic they have common influenza or rhinovirus vs CoVid-19.

The numbers are so encouraging.

•  US Population (est.): 329,000,000 >>(See Notes)
• +Estimated exposed to the Virus: 75.68M
• (Estimated Percent of National Population 23.0%)
• *Confirmed Cases: 688,019 (Increase of 218,515)
• Total Deaths: 35,907 (increase of 17,916) 
• **Total Recovered: 56,177 (Corrected, some how an extra zero was posted earlier.)

This is all leveling off and the number of new deaths is decreasing. Even with New York City adding 3,700 deaths because they had died in their homes and had not been counted. These 3,700 people were never tested but were assumed to have CV19, they had coughs and fever. Is it worth going back and testing mem? Maybe, 3700 was 17% of the US deaths at the time. So that is a large increase.

What is so good about this? 

The infection rate is slowing. More people have been tested but the rate of increase has dropped. The death rate has dropped a ton with the revised estimate of the infected to 0.043% of infected at risk of dying. Most places have access to PPE and many US factories have re-tooled to supply that stuff, instead of relying on imports. Again showing the flexibility of an almost free market.

There are treatments that are working!

Hydroxychloroquine (HyC for short) is being tested in South Dakota in studies to determine if it is a cure. There is a tone of anecdotal evidence that combining it with other things, does seem to have a very high success rate. This is a prime example of why you do not want to think like a News Media Schill.

Often it is said that HyC is not listed as a cure. Of course not, CV19 is a novel virus, one that has not been studied, except in a few places. And no cure had been found there. The idea of a “novel” virus is not that it is well-read, but that it is unique. Though most folks agree it is similar to SARS (SARS-CoV) hence it is officially SARS-CoV 2 in the lab rat world.

So what is your risk where 23% of the people have been exposed? (based on moderately conservative estimates)

Note the death rate went from 0.37% to 0.047%, even with NYC adjustment. At 0.37% you had a 1 in 292 chance of dying. Now your chance is down to 1 in 2,128.

Does that mean if you leave your house 2,128 times you will get the virus and die? No. Remember there is a “New Deck”, to use a gambler phrase, every time you leave the house. The cards are shuffled when you leave the door.

So when is it safe enough?

Now for most people. The financial costs aside, there is a manufacturing shortage coming unless we get back outside and do our stuff. This is true for a small and large business. There are food plants shutting down and farmers destroying crops they can’t sell because we can’t process that food. Right now, we have time to catch up. But in 4 weeks, we will start seeing shortages. Those shortages can cause death too. Again, there is the question of “Does it matter how you die?” If you are a socialist, it does. Because if you die from a bullet, you are venerated as a “gun death” if you die from a knife or beating, well then you are just a crime statistic. If you die from a lack of medicine or starve, that is OK because you did not die “from CV19!”

So is it good news?

Yes! Your odds of survival just jumped up by some 600%. That huge change is due to the larger testing data.

Define safe? That is an individual decision. But the point of a free society is you do get to choose. At what point do we stop living in fear and go out and have a life? As of now your odds of dying from CoVid-19 are lower than the top 12 most common causes of death in the United States. That is down from 3rd most common last week.

Every time you open your eyes you put yourself at risk. According to the National Safety Council, if you go outside, 1 of 114 times you will die from a “Motor Vehicle Crash.” Whenever you eat you will choke on your food 1 out of 3,461 meals. Yet you still eat every day. If you choose to go outside, it is probably still a good idea to practice your personal space thing. Wearing a mask may make others feel better and reduce your chances from 1 in 2, 128 to about 1 in 3, 093.

Can restaurants help be reducing tables in their dining room? Would you go to a restaurant and eat if they advertised a 6-foot clearance between usable booths and tables? Thes kind of thing is how we define our new normal. But a restaurant will have trouble making profits if the table count is cut by 50-70 percent.

Governor Brown let’s get back to life.

Notes:

* - Tested or diagnosed through clinical means.
** - Tested free of CV19 twice over 2 weeks, after diagnosed as positive.
+ - Estimate of infected based on the idea that only 10% of the total infected have been confirmed.
 >> - Dropped down to be consistent with the US news media, though this estimate is 2 years old and does not include unregistered persons. The 2020 census should clear this up.

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

By Order of the Queen Governor of Oregon – Your Dining Hall is now confiscated.

The Issue:

Can the government (State or Federal) close services by private companies for an indeterminate amount of time? Not in Oregon! When does public safety trump personal freedom? It should not. Yet here we are. Forced isolation – When does Sequester/Quarantine become worse than the disease?  Let’s take a look!

Is what you die from this important?

Economy and mental health seem to be snakes swallowing each other. When people are happy the economy is strong, when the economy goes down, mental health suffers.  Last year in Oregon there were 844 suicides.  That is an average of 70 a month.  Every month.  As of April 13th, 2020 Oregon has lost 52 people. 4 In the last 24 hours.

Now that is terrible.  But what are the odds of suicide has increased over the last month of quarantine?  I have asked the Oregon Department of health for the 2020 statistics by month.  But they have not had time to supply those yet.  Oddly I have found no reliable monthly tally of that information. I will end up doing a blog on mental health in the future when I have facts to provide.

Governor Brown has signed 15 Executive Orders (EO) as of the date of this writing (04/13/2020).  Most of them for set amounts of time.  EO20-06 Specified that the restaurant dining room and facilities be closed for 30 days. On April 7th, Governor Brown extended that order, in its entirety for an indefinite period.

It seems to me this is a bad idea for many reasons.  Do we need to continue to distance ourselves and wash hands?  Sure.  If somebody has health issues should they remain sequestered? That would be reasonable.  But if we don’t start looking at how to safely navigate a world full of pandemics waiting to happen, the better.

The Promises:

The hope of a vaccine or cure is good but a vacant promise.  When HIV was first discovered in the population, it was promised but never found.  HIV First made an appearance in 1968.  During the 1970’s it was considered a pandemic (it still is) and billions have been poured into its cure.  We do have reliable tests, but no vaccine nor anything resembling a cure.  Sure we can prolong the life span of the infected.  But it can’t be cured.  So even science can’t deliver on these kinds of promises.

Welcome to the new reality. 

So what next?

Oregon has this covered.  There is no law to change, it just needs to be applied.  If the State confiscates property, they must compensate the citizen or company.  It seems that Governor Kate Brown has stolen your facilities if you are a dine/Drink- in a facility. If I were you, I’d send the state an invoice for renting out your service areas for March 17th to April 21st.

Oregon Statute(ORS) 433.441(5-6):
(5) A proclamation of a state of public health emergency expires when terminated by a declaration of the Governor or no more than 14 days after the date the public health emergency is proclaimed unless the Governor expressly extends the proclamation for an additional 14-day period.

(6) When real or personal property is taken under power granted by this section, the owner of the property shall be entitled to reasonable compensation from the state. [2003 c.555 §1; 2007 c.445 §23; 2013 c.332 §3]

It seems to me, that specifically for a health emergency, the Governor can not set these emergency powers for more than 14 days. It also seems to me, by declaring dining rooms off-limits, and making no state effort to decontaminate or re-open them, she is “Taking possession of” the dining areas.

If I were a lawyer, and I am not, I would see if there is a class action suit just waiting to happen.

I am not interested in breaking the quarantine, not because I am afraid of the state, but if I spread this to somebody else, I would be very unhappy.  It is the uncertainty that causes stress because I don’t know if I have it.  So maybe staying quarantined until we do have at least an antibody test if you are at risk, is a good idea.  There are no guarantees, people in their 20s have died from this.  And some did not seem to have any co-morbidities. But the odds at this point are 0.338 to 100. Or if you want a sensational number 296 to 1 of contracting SARS-CoVid 2(CoVid-19, CV19).

You have to decide if it worth the risk.  But in a free country or state, it should be your choice.

Notes:

* Not signed by the Secretary of State – Bev Clamo.
A full list of Executive orders 2003 to Present. Downloadable PDF of the signed orders.

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

A Change in Culture - Changing Normalcy.

Changing culture can either be easy or hard. The sad thing is it is a personal choice, not a societal issue. We are forcing a culture change in the United States right now. It is because of how we are handling the current pandemic crisis. Suicide hotlines are up over 300 percent. Other help groups are seeing a boom in things. As a 12 step practitioner myself, I am seeing a baseline cultural change in how we do things. But there is hope.

These changes are neither bad nor good. But they could be awful if we define normal the way we used to. That is the part we seem to have lost from the “Greatest Generation” who acted selflessly, in fighting the Axis Powers. Accepting reality is why they went to fight. If we did not defeat the Axis Powers, everybody knew they would be here, eventually.

I have to be amazed at what happened in the first part of the 20th century. People were in two camps on the idea of flying, it was not possible, or it was 50 years in the future. Then there was Kittyhawk and the Wright brother. In the 30 years between Kittyhawk (1903), and 1933, when Adolf Hitler was just getting off the ground, we went from first flight to the founding of PanAm Airlines in 1927. From there to landing on the moon in 1969. In 63 years we went from zero to hero. Now we have more changes to deal with. And again the secret is to accept what is true, and move forward.

This is not even the first major Pandemic, since the flight of the Wright Brothers. What became known as the “Spanish Flu” (the first case seems to have been in Alabama in 1917). We fought a war, and that pandemic may have even helped shorten that war, though it killed more people than the war did. Again they accepted what is and dealt with where to go from here.

Do we continue the quarantine?

That may the wrong question, the right question maybe can we continue? At what point does the prevention become worse than the disease? If we continue with this, what will happen? Well, the food will get short. Governors are telling farmers, ranchers, dairies, and slaughterhouses to close down. Even though we have trucks to haul the food, thank your local truck driver, there may come a point when there is nothing to load on the truck. So we could be in a situation with a food shortage caused by the government.

People are living in fear of getting a disease, which is for now unlikely. That may change. But despite the week ending April 11th, being one fo the deadliest in the United States for CV19, there is hope. The overall spread is decreasing in speed.

How do I live like this?

You don’t. You live the way you need to now, not the way you did in the past. The new reality lifestyle is waiting to be defined. But can you accept that? Acceptance is NOT the solution to all your problems, it is the first step in finding a solution. So f you accept the new reality the next choice is yours. Factories are re-tooling to make Personal Protection Equipment (PPE) for medical personal. It is time for me to re-tool myself for the new reality.

Where to start? How about if you S.P.E.A.K.?

SPEAK is an acronym for steps to go through when considering your day. There is a video here about it, presented by Verve Counseling LLC. Sara is an LCSW.

The idea being if you configure a structure around your life, you can have a better life. It does need to be in the confines of current reality. So can you find a job you can do, that will keep you as safe as possible? Sadly staying at home is not even a guarantee of health. Besides the health risks of being inside all the time, it is not reality. But if you have lost your job, can you find or even better create one that you can do with a limited risk of exposure.

We do need to think about limiting exposure. You can not eliminate it. People are getting sick with no discernable path to infection. Nobody they know has it. They have been home for two or three weeks, and only had limited contact with the outside world. So they “did everything right” and still ended up exposed.

So try building your SPEAK Model Structure in your life. See if you can’t bust out of that box. There is a possibility this may be our “armistice” year. But more about that next week.

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

Crunch Time - Worst week brings the best news 04/10/2020

With the huge increase in deaths, almost 100k, how can I see a light? Well, lift your head and look around. The numbers are as depressing as the context from which they come. Meaning if you have no context, you just see the numbers, how could you help but feel doomed and overwhelmed? So… let’s look at this week's synopsis.

The Numbers (04/10/2020)

US Population (est.): 348,860,000
+Estimated exposed to the Virus: 4.67M- 46.69M
(Estimated Percent of National Population 1.35%-13.46%)
*Confirmed Cases: 489,404
(Increase of 199,947)
Total Deaths: 17,991 (increase of 11,084)
**Total Recovered: 27,491

Estimated odds of you contacting an exposed person between 1 -13 out of 100. That is twice as likely as the previous week. Yet still, 86% of the population are not infected. Even having enough symptoms to get tested means you only have a 20% chance of testing positive for CV19. 80% of the sick people tested, come back negative. What can we learn here?

The rate of infection is decreasing. The number of people confirmed was increasing nationwide by about 11% a day, now it is down to 9% a day. That indicates #personal distancing is working. So the acceleration is dropping.

Your risk is still low. Though the “death rate” versus known cases is up to 3.83% when you extrapolate with the estimated number of exposed persons to the death rate, that is down to 0.383%. That is still higher than the seasonal flu, but much lower than say SARS-CoV or H1N1. We know that 5.86% of confirmed cases have recovered nationwide. Remember to be confirmed cured you need to have been tested 2 times in 2 weeks and come back negative. I would expect that number to continue to grow as more testing becomes available. Some people have recovered but have not been retested. This makes sense, test the sick and not the healthy since we are short on time and tests.

What should I do?

Here in Oregon, we are under a mostly voluntary sequester. We are still shopping at stores, and many people when going out are wearing masks. Oregon's rate of increase is almost half that the rest of the nation.

It might be time to consider how to start living again! This was the worst week for the death count, but not the infected count. The percentage of increase is on the decline. That means the disease is running the natural course. This is good.

When do we declare success?

I am smart enough to know I don’t know. But it will need to be soon. There are things not getting done that will show up soon. And if we do not identify the “new normal” (See my other post 04/10/2020), we will be in trouble. Do you think toilet paper was hard to find? I’ll be focusing on canned meat and vegetables on this shopping trip.

Dairies are destroying Milk because they don’t have anybody to bottle it. Here in Oregon, I feel lucky, there are small farms around here, and I would hope we can develop a more local food economy. But Los Angles California? Sorry dude.

Be cautious, if you can work from home, do so if you can’t thank you for your service and be careful. Use precautions. The big question is can we sustain this current status quo? A collapsed economy will ruin more lives than this pandemic ever could.

We as a people need to switch from hunker down to get out and risk. If we don’t, there will be nothing to come up to after we hit bottom.

Notes:

• * - Tested or diagnosed through clinical means.
• ** - Tested free of CV19 twice over 2 weeks, after diagnosed as positive.
• + - Estimate of infected based on the idea that only 10% of the total infected have been confirmed.
•  # - I use personal distancing because “Social Distancing” is such an oxymoron. How can you be social while distancing? It was probably invented by a politician’s focus group in someplace like New York City that thinks opposites can co-mingle.
• All sourced from the CDC.

 Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.

It’s Crunch time! – The numbers and what they really mean. 04/03/2020

Last Friday I sent up charts and data to the internet to try to show how small your personal risk really is.  Not to bash anybody, but to praise our amazing cooperative work.  Here is an update that personally I find encouraging.

Again we hear the terrible numbers of the toll of this virus, but because we look at the microcosm of the numbers, we do not understand the actual risk to us individually.  Though I am not saying we should yell and scream and run around hugging each other.  Getting outside and doing our lives as close to normal as is prudent, might not be a bad way to go. 

In 2009 we had the H1N1pdn09 pandemic.  We did not shut down the world and we only quarantined the infected. SARS-CoV 2 (CoVid-19 0r C19) is far more contagious.  So it appears, but it is also far less lethal.

The Numbers (04/03/2020)

US Population (est): 348,860,000
Estimated exposed to the Virus: 2.695M – 26.955M
(Percent of National Population 0.077%-0.775%)

Confirmed Cases: 269,557
Total Deaths:       6,907
Total Recovered: 12,015

Estimated odds of you contacting an exposed person between .077% - 0.776%
That means if you were at a used car lot with 1000 cars, and the worst case is it would be 8 of those 1000 cars are lemons.  So 992 of those 1000 cars are good. Or if you had $10 in pennies, eight of those “pennies” were actually pesos.

In more simple terms, out of 125 people you come in contact with, 1 of them will have been exposed to CV19.  This is not to be ignored.  But the reality is that you are relatively safe.

Should you use some sort of mask to reduce the risk?  Sure. Yet do not ignore the cost of being idle. Addicts will fall of their respective wagon.  People are not being taken to hospitals in NYC. If Paramedics find a person on the floor without a heartbeat, due to heart attack, they are not even to bother transporting victims to the hospital, unless they can restart the heart.  In the past, they would be transported to the hospital while being sustained by CPR.  Many of these people can recover.  Now they are not being given the chance. So where do you draw the “save one life” logic?

What does 1 in 125 looks like?

1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111X111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111

Being over cautious can be just as damaging as a slow reaction.

Be safe, be cautious but continue to live a life.  Shutting your life down can have long-term effects on you and your circle.

Notes:

* tested or diagnosed through clinical means.
** Tested free of CV19 twice over a 2 week period, after diagnosed as positive.
+ Estimate of infected based on the idea that only 10% of the total infected have been confirmed.
All sourced from the CDC.  

How to Avoid the Downfall - "Inside Out" A Movie by Disney

With all the changes we are going through, things are changing.  Some are temporary and some will be permanent.  We are changing our culture on a fundamental level. Alcohol sales have risen 45%, which is consumable alcohol.  Will all of that be used to sterilize things?  Probably not.

Fair warning: We sill see at least 100k people dying from CoVid-19 in the United States alone. Next year could be as bad if not worse.  We are in for rough times. We have only experienced 4% of that number in losses as of this writing (04/02/2020). So things will get worse.  But how we react to that is the question.  Remember 100K is less than 0.03% of the US population.  A lot of people, but the math is in your favor.

Would some of these changes have happened anyway?

Probably. Some things like Tele-Education, Tele-Commuting and other Virtual Meeting tools will become the norm.  Back in the 1940s and 50s, the technology of “Dick Tracey” was considered irrational.  But since the “Smart Phone” revolution, we’ve had that technology in our hands.

But change is hard!

If it is an escape from reality like Porn or Gambling, or if it is to alter your perception like Drugs or Alcohol, or if even it is a matter of eating things that make you “feel better,” is of no matter. The end result is always the same, self-destructive behavior.

Alcoholics Anonymous - Non-Affiliate

I do work with a 12 step program.  I do have sponsees that I work with. And one of the assignments they get from me is to watch or read certain materials. My primary source is, of course, the big book of “Alcoholic’s Anonymous.” One of the things I stress is journaling why you partake in .  An honest person will find that sometime in the past they concluded that this addiction benefited them. It is an irrational thought, but it is why you keep it up. 

There is one artistic work I recommend that is a “Non-Approved” material.  The kid's movie “Inside Out”: A Disney film that explores emotions and how we respond to it.  And that is the secret of addiction, how we respond to our emotions.  That is where the danger of being “restless, irritable and discontented”(RID)- Alcoholics Anonymous, from “The Doctors Opinion”) comes from.

What I find interesting about this simple movie is that it gently deals with the root of many societal ills.  

Whether it be the cancel culture, the rift between socialist and conservative or the issues inside one's self, the lack o ability to reconcile our cognitive dissidence between emotion, rational thought, and physical results.

Inside Out Disney Studios

A strong recommendation is to enjoy the movie “Inside Out” (Now Available Free on YouTube) Pay attention at the end when they go into different peoples heads, and pay attention to what emotions have the rule over the different people.

During these new times, am I reacting with the emotion of intellect?

Emotions are not bad, but being ruled by them is a disaster in progress.  The Stoics of ancient Greek fame had a good idea.  Acknowledge your emotions, but allow intellect to control your decisions. The Bible spends 66 books and spans 5000 years of history demonstrating this.  A religion that speaks to emotional rule, is one destined to end in self-destruction.  People who have used the Quaran’ or the Bible to drive an emotional result have done so to their destruction.

So if you have some time on your hand, watch “Inside Out” and try to picture the committee that rules your head.  You can’t eliminate the committee, but you can bring it to order.  And that is were sobriety lives.  With a committee under guidance.

Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.