The news is dismal, but so much is
perspective. One life lost is too many, yet
this is not the first, nor will it be the last pandemic we will ever deal with
as a species. They will be terrible, if
for no other reason than our ability to travel.
Infections can literally travel the globe in hours. So how do you keep from giving up? If you put these horrendous numbers in
perspective. In all honesty by the time
you read this thing will have changed. But
pulling back and looking at the big picture may help you mentally. That is the
hope of this writing.
How do you “Adapt and Overcome?”,
Remember it is not all bad news. The
reality is much better than the reporting.
“Adapt and Overcome” is a term
used by many in the armed services, especially our elite fighting units. They are trained to see a situation and to
change the plans as needed to get the final result.
It sounds very cool, and boy I
wish I could do that! Well, you can and
you have. Based on the fact you are
reading or listening to this, that is proof that at some point in your life,
you choose to adapt and overcome. At the time it may have been called learning
to read or learning computer skills, but it was adaptation leading to overcoming
some obstacle.
American and European society has
forgotten this. What proof do I
have? Toilet paper ladies and
gentlemen! The complete lack of TP due
to hoarding is proof that we are losing the basic survival skill of adaption.
Of all the things to horde, why
Toilet Paper? Toilet paper was not
invented and marketed until 1857. The roll
as we now know it did not come into existence until 1883. Given that history, how necessary is it in
reality? When it comes to survival it’s
not. But it is a nice convenience. Yet
that is still lacking on the shelves, Many retailers are rationing it to one
package per customer.
If you are struggling emotionally
during this sequester, what is the root cause? Your lack of adaption.
If you are unable to work and are
not getting paid, that is a concern. I Love the fact that in the “Recovery
Package” Congress passed the New York Symphony $25 million. As soon as that was announced, they dismissed
all of the orchestras. What was that
money for? If I were in congress, I’d submit
a bill that, unless they hired and paid their orchestra, they would have to
repay the $25M with interest. The NY Symphony is not dealing with reality. They may not overcome because they refuse to adapt.
One of the things in listening to
the news, it sounds so hopeless. But we
see only a tiny portion of the picture.
We hear how many people are infected.
And we can’t stop thinking about it.
US Cases per the CDC (as of 03/30/2020)
- Infected: 140,904 Deaths 2,405
- This is a horrible number. That is too many deaths. So all people think about is dying. But what are the odds in reality?
- Now, these odds will change over time. They honestly have almost doubled since Friday (03/27/2020) because the number of cases almost doubled. But we will talk about that later.
But first the math!
We know for a fact that the number of cases is not
accurate. That number in the US is
obtained by 2 major factors.
1.
Those diagnosed with the CV19- This does not
mean you have been tested. It means
these people have contacted their doctor, and been diagnosed with SARS-CoV 2
(CoVid-19 or CV19). I have found no
indication that people who have this point recovered, and there have been
recoveries, are removed from this number.
So let us assume this number is moderately accurate.
2.
Those who have tested and found to be positive for
CV19. This number is growing rapidly and
will continue to grow. At least for a
while. More testing is being done. But that is truly not bad news. As testing becomes more prevalent, we as a
country can move from sequestering everybody, then quarantine those who have
the disease.
Now for the encouragement. (Stay with me)
About the number: If we assume that for every person that we
know has the virus, 10 to 100 others have been at least exposed if not
contracted it.
What is good about that?
It is only between 0.43% -4.29 % of the US population has
been exposed, much less contracted. Is this a guess? Sure, but an educated one.
In more good news, the number of
people that when tested are positive for CV19 is about 35%. So that means 65%
or those tested are negative. Again good
news.
So the odds in a nutshell –
Worst case there is currently 4.29 percent of the US
population who have been exposed. So you
have a 94% chance of meeting healthy people out there. This is not to say we should go to a mosh pit
or the like.
If you have sequestered yourself as requested, and have
limited your odds of exposer over the last 2 weeks, you are probably either
immune, many people are, or you have not been exposed. So until treatment is
approved or a vaccine is made available, we are doing the right thing.
More good news:
Per the CDC, there are 600 treatments and 300 vaccines in trials
for CV19. There have been promising known medications that have worked. Treatment is coming. We just need to be patient. Getting out to the moshpit too soon will ruin
all of our hard work.
For those of us working from home, I hope you like it. This has forced companies to figure out how
to allow for telecommuting. On average
it costs a company bout $1100 a month to provide you with desk/office
space. Maybe a little less for the
cubical city. Due to people staying
home, Los Angles and other smog-ridden cities are seeing blue skies for the
first time in a long time. So if you can
work from home, keep your job and cut out transportation time and cost, would
that not be a good thing?
For those who lost jobs due to this, I hope that you can
find work again. It may require a new
mindset from ourselves. But that again
is “Adapt and Overcome” at work.
The odds of you getting sick right now are slim, but not
zero. If you are an at-risk person, extra caution beyond the current April 30th
mark may be needed. But the reality is,
by next year we will have treatments and vaccines approved. We are learning how
to deal with pandemics in the modern world.
In 2009, we had an H1N1 Pandemic. The US Government did nothing until after
1000 people died, then they used up all the stockpiles and never replaced
them. We have been moving much faster
this time. We learned from our
mistakes. Nobody would say we have been
perfect. Yet we are learning to be flexible.
Companies like Nike, GM and others are producing N95 rated
masks. I just found out a local
distillery here in Portland is making hand sanitizer specifically for hospitals
and first responders. So a bad time to be an alcoholic, of course, is there a
good time?
It is a good thing for a species to be nimble, that can
adapt. Those that do not go
extinct. It is a natural order of
things.
So can you see the reality through the trees?
Can you adapt and overcome?
Of course, you can, you learned how to walk, eat read and so
many other things. It is a matter of
seeing what is real and important. And
doing that. Oddly enough toilet paper is
not important. It is nice, but not
important. Your neighbor, friends, and
social entanglements help you adapt. If
they don’t, then find ones that do.
You can overcome.
“Bless them which persecute you: bless, and curse not. Rejoice with them that do rejoice, and weep with them that weep. Be of the same mind one toward another. Mind not high things, but condescend to men of low estate. Be not wise in your own conceits. Recompense to no man evil for evil. Provide things honest in the sight of all men.
If it be possible, as much as lieth in you, live peaceably with all men. Dearly beloved, avenge not yourselves, but rather give place unto wrath: for it is written, Vengeance is mine; I will repay, saith the Lord.
Therefore if thine enemy hunger, feed him; if he thirst, give him drink: for in so doing thou shalt heap coals of fire on his head. Be not overcome of evil, but overcome evil with good.”
Romans 12: 14-21
(KJV)
Gregor - Back from the brink! From there and back again. A spiritual Hobbits journey.
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