We hear about the “New Normal”, I have even talked about this in previous posts. But I mean something different. I don’t mean the drastic changes society “must” make to survive this. I mean the risk management to get back to what normal always returns to. We talk about this technological age, and “how different” things are now than 2000 years ago. But is it really? Sure we can circle the globe in hours literally, in less than an hour in orbit, everything has the same purpose, we are just better at it.
The wheel brought the engine that brought the airplane. In the end it boils down to getting places to gather food, provide shelter, and reproduce. We earn money to gather food and purchase shelter. But the essentials are the same. They have gathered food, made families, and sought to improve their current station. Every change to society, including the 1791 “Great Experiment,” was to define or support “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.”
There are very scary numbers regarding our current pandemic. If you look at just the total numbers, it is frightening. But you don’t live your life based on that kind of information. If you only looked at “total numbers,” we would not have 5-gallon buckets (Kills more children 5 and under than anything else), Drive or ride in a car (38,800 killed in 2019), or stay at home. In the United States (2018 numbers) 49 people out of every 100k die from “unintentional accidents” (this includes car accidents). In Oregon 2.9 out 100k have died so far from CV19. I wish I could guarantee your safety at home, but to be honest, you are at risk staying at home.
The Numbers are scary!
Is it really? There are a few things about the numbers we must acknowledge.
Many to the “Confirmed cases” are diagnosed by fever, inability to smell, or respiratory distress. The number of diseases that present with these symptoms is amazing. Including one corona type virus, we have been fighting forever, the common cold.
Of the People told to take a test because they are symptomatic, only 35% test positive.
We know people who tested positive, died of other diseases (Cancer, heart failure, etc) has been counted as CV19 deaths. (April 7th Dr. Brix at the CV19 Task Force Press Conference). There is no doubt that people who died from other issues are being counted as CV19 Death.
We can’t know the true numbers until we have reliable tests for antibodies as well as the diseases itself, as well as every person is tested live or has an autopsy. That is not happening. It is not possible.
Our current numbers US/Oregon:
US Population (est.): 329,000,000 >>(See Notes)
*Confirmed Cases: 1,611,297 (Increase of 161,161 over May 15th numbers)
Total Deaths: 95,213 (an increase of 8,606 over May 15th numbers)
**Total Recovered: 308,625
Death Rate: 5.91% (unadjusted numbers)
About Oregon?
Oregon Population (est.): 4,180,000
*Confirmed Cases: 3,817 (Increase of 338 over May 15th numbers)
Total Deaths: 145 (an increase of 8 over May 15th h numbers)
**Total Recovered: Unreported by Oregon
Death Rate: 3.70% unadjusted numbers, that is 35.71% below the national average))
In the last week, Oregon cases have slowed to a crawl. More people are getting tested, and the rate of increase is slowing every week. I keep hearing Mayor Cuomo if New York City touting the “Even if it saves just one life” line. Yet that is a marketing fallacy. This was never about saving individual lives, because this kind of restriction can’t save lives it can only reduce the risk. Then the question is when is the prevention worse than the disease.
Safety third:
Mike Rowe has often talked about “safety third” and has espoused on this theme in several interviews and blog posts (Mike Rowe – “Walk me through this “Safety Third Thing”).
We now know, because China did not acknowledge the early stages of the epidemic there, it turned in to a pandemic. Because China restricted travel inside the country but not only allowed but encouraged foreigners to leave, without testing or notifying the destination countries of the risk, we have a pandemic. There is evidence that New York, California, and Washington state have been fighting this since 2019. All of our “authoritative models” have been wrong. Not by just a little.
It is time for Oregon to open. Washington County, where I live) is considered one of the Oregon “Hot Spots” but it has only one 5th of the cases in Oregon. Washington County has about one 5th of the population of the state. So it is not “overly infected” really. It just has one of the most densely populated counties. Imagine that!
We should be realistic about what we are doing. If you are high risk, maybe sequester is the right choice. As for me – I will not offer my hand out of respect for your distance. But I should have a shirt or hat made that says “Will Hug or handshake on request.”
It’s time.
Notes:
* - Tested or diagnosed through clinical means.
** - Tested free of CV19 twice over 2 weeks, after diagnosed as positive.
>> Dropped down to be consistent with the US news media, though this estimate is 2 years old and does not include unregistered persons. The 2020 census should clear this up.
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