I finally found some stats on suicide in Oregon. There
was an article in the Oregonian – Oregonians
have died at a rate well above the aversive since mid-March
(Updated April 29th as of this writing). It shows that between MARCH 15TH
to April 19th 245 Oregonians died from suicide. On average we usually would have almost 90 in
that same period. That means that 155
more died than what is considered average.
As of this writing (05/26/2020) there have been 148 deaths in total due
to SARS CoV 2 (CV19).
Note that there have been no new deaths since Friday May
22nd and only 22 new cases recorded.
According to World population Review – Suicide
by States Oregon has lost 825 people so far in 2020. On average Oregon saw 70 suicides a month in
2019. That would be 350 by the end of
May. Yet we have more than doubled that
(about a 230% increase).
The Oregonian article indicated that “It
is unclear if other fallout from the pandemic, including fear of seeking health
care,” was the cause of this. And that is true, interviewing dead people pose
technical difficulties that we have not surmounted. On the other hand the
reason folks are afraid to seek medical care is because of the CV19.
But given common factors of suicide we can determine; the economic downturn, social isolation, and other depressive contributing factors
that have all been forced on us, it seems unlikely that the restrictions were
not at least a contributing factor. It
is known that people who attend Spiritual worship or social events tend to be
less likely to commit suicide.
Without question these people were troubled to start
with. That argument indicates that they
are less valuable than others. I for one
can’t promote that premise.
Again the question is when is the prevention worse than
the disease? It seems to me if we are losing twice as many or more to suicide
than CV19 that maybe we passed that point in April. It is now the end of May.
Re-opening “everything” does come with its risks. The original idea was to “reduce the wave” so
that our hospitals could keep up. Hospitals
are now closing because they don’t have enough patients to stay
open.
Suicide Prevention Lifeline |
There is some hope for a vaccine, though no timeline on that can be promised. Given what we learned from SARS CoV (The 2002 Corona Strain), that gave us a leg up on the SARS CoV 2 (CV19). But there is still no guarantee. A Little vaccine history lesson here.
Developing a “herd immunity” at this point may only be
achieved through exposure. So when do we start that treatment?
The other costs that can’t be calculated are the labor drought that seems to be starting to show up. With all the stimulus, in some cases, it makes more economic sense for people to stay at home. These people are the one ones that work mostly for small business. Small Business employes 80% of the workforce. If they have to raise salaries to attract people, that increases inflation. Add that to the value of the US Dollar that will eventually drop because we just “Made up” money for the stimulus.
The other costs that can’t be calculated are the labor drought that seems to be starting to show up. With all the stimulus, in some cases, it makes more economic sense for people to stay at home. These people are the one ones that work mostly for small business. Small Business employes 80% of the workforce. If they have to raise salaries to attract people, that increases inflation. Add that to the value of the US Dollar that will eventually drop because we just “Made up” money for the stimulus.
We currently live with SARS, MERS, H3N2 (Hong Kong Flu
from the 1968 Pandemic) as well as many others.
We will see many deaths from CV19.
Remember the initial count was in the multimillions in the US
alone. That now seems unlikely. As states open it will be important to see if
the spike that will happen starts to tax our now reduced hospital capacity. But
we are on a war footing now. Those
hospitals can be re-opened. Most states
have started to store up capacity for consumable medical supplies that were
depleted by earlier administrations on every level.
A question to answer is when is it better to open
up? Now when the weather is getting
brighter, and the conditions for spread are as low as they can get? Or wait
until fall, when we are all living indoors more and have less exposure to the
big bright natural disinfector in the sky (The Sun)?
Governor Kate Brown, How many suicides do you want to be
responsible for?
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