Last Friday I
sent up charts and data to the internet to try to show how small your personal
risk really is. Not to bash anybody, but
to praise our amazing cooperative work. Here
is an update that personally I find encouraging.
Again we hear
the terrible numbers of the toll of this virus, but because we look at the microcosm
of the numbers, we do not understand the actual risk to us individually. Though I am not saying we should yell and
scream and run around hugging each other.
Getting outside and doing our lives as close to normal as is prudent,
might not be a bad way to go.
In 2009 we
had the H1N1pdn09 pandemic. We did not
shut down the world and we only quarantined the infected. SARS-CoV 2 (CoVid-19
0r C19) is far more contagious. So it
appears, but it is also far less lethal.
The Numbers (04/03/2020)
US Population
(est): 348,860,000
Estimated exposed to the Virus: 2.695M – 26.955M
(Percent of National Population 0.077%-0.775%)
Confirmed Cases: 269,557
Total Deaths: 6,907
Total Recovered: 12,015
Estimated odds of you contacting an exposed person between .077% - 0.776%
That means if you were at a used car lot with 1000 cars, and the worst case is it would be 8 of those 1000 cars are lemons. So 992 of those 1000 cars are good. Or if you had $10 in pennies, eight of those “pennies” were actually pesos.
Estimated exposed to the Virus: 2.695M – 26.955M
(Percent of National Population 0.077%-0.775%)
Confirmed Cases: 269,557
Total Deaths: 6,907
Total Recovered: 12,015
Estimated odds of you contacting an exposed person between .077% - 0.776%
That means if you were at a used car lot with 1000 cars, and the worst case is it would be 8 of those 1000 cars are lemons. So 992 of those 1000 cars are good. Or if you had $10 in pennies, eight of those “pennies” were actually pesos.
In more
simple terms, out of 125 people you come in contact with, 1 of them will have
been exposed to CV19. This is not to be ignored. But the reality is that you are relatively safe.
Should you use some sort of mask to reduce the risk? Sure. Yet do not ignore the cost of being idle. Addicts will fall of their respective wagon. People are not being taken to hospitals in NYC. If Paramedics find a person on the floor without a heartbeat, due to heart attack, they are not even to bother transporting victims to the hospital, unless they can restart the heart. In the past, they would be transported to the hospital while being sustained by CPR. Many of these people can recover. Now they are not being given the chance. So where do you draw the “save one life” logic?
Should you use some sort of mask to reduce the risk? Sure. Yet do not ignore the cost of being idle. Addicts will fall of their respective wagon. People are not being taken to hospitals in NYC. If Paramedics find a person on the floor without a heartbeat, due to heart attack, they are not even to bother transporting victims to the hospital, unless they can restart the heart. In the past, they would be transported to the hospital while being sustained by CPR. Many of these people can recover. Now they are not being given the chance. So where do you draw the “save one life” logic?
What does 1 in 125 looks like?
1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111X111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111
Being over
cautious can be just as damaging as a slow reaction.
Be safe, be
cautious but continue to live a life.
Shutting your life down can have long-term effects on you and your circle.
Notes:
* tested or diagnosed through clinical means.** Tested free of CV19 twice over a 2 week period, after diagnosed as positive.
+ Estimate of infected based on the idea that only 10% of the total infected have been confirmed.
All sourced from the CDC.
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